The backdrop: The EU’s two largest economies face different but converging risks.
Germany’s economy contracted 0.3% in Q2—worse than the preliminary -0.1% estimate—as manufacturing slumped after a temporary surge in US orders aimed at dodging tariffs, per Destatis.
French Prime Minister François Bayrou will seek a vote of confidence in the National Assembly on September 8, a move likely to topple the government and inject fresh uncertainty into an economy heavily reliant on consumer spending. A political crisis could even push France into recession, Carrefour SA CEO Alexandre Bompard warned, per Bloomberg.
Our take: While German households are pulling back amid economic gloom, French consumers have so far kept growth afloat. But if political turmoil erodes confidence, the two largest markets could synchronize into a broader slowdown. That would leave retailers with limited room to offset weakness, forcing many to lean on discounting, cost control measures, and/or value-driven formats to sustain sales.
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| Aug 28, 2025