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We expect US personal luxury sales to reach $136.22 billion in 2027, or about 17% more than China鈥檚 $116.52 billion. China will lag the US when it comes to growth in online sales of luxury goods. Online sales will account for 21.0% of total luxury sales in China this year. That鈥檚 less than half the 45.9% share of overall retail sales that will be transacted online.

That increase in spending was partly the result of TikTok鈥檚 attempts to get in on the July sales action鈥攚hich it could repeat this holiday season with an October sales event of its own.

That鈥檚 not to mention brands such as Benefit Cosmetics and COOLA that have livestreamed via TikTok Shop to reach consumers on Gen Z鈥檚 favorite destination for social commerce. Our take: While livestream shopping was slow to catch on in the US, it is starting to find a foothold with consumers.

Creators and influencers are most effective at driving sales of discretionary goods and services, like fashion, beauty, travel, and consumer tech, per our March 2024 US Social Commerce survey. The primary way US consumers would change their shopping behavior due to the tariffs would be by prioritizing essential goods, per January 2025 data from First Insight.

Online marketplaces, social commerce platforms, and retail media networks have emerged as some of the most important tools to reach online shoppers. Gen Z will push mcommerce toward the tipping point for online sales. Smartphones will continue to gain ground as digital sales shift away from computers and tablets.

Facebook鈥檚 lead in US social commerce is largely due to secondhand sales. More than half of respondents in Morning Consult鈥檚 survey had used Facebook鈥檚 P2P channel. But parent company Meta wants to increase the presence of brands on Marketplace as it looks for new revenue sources amid the digital advertising downturn. Gen Zers and millennials show higher levels of P2P buying across major platforms.

The US is the world鈥檚 second-largest social commerce market after China, generating $68.92 billion in sales this year, per our estimates. So far, few US merchants are buying what TikTok is trying to sell. Fewer than 100 US merchants were selling on TikTok Shop as of March 2023, per The Information. To be fair, TikTok Shop only began enlisting merchants on an invite-only basis in November 2022.

If D2C can鈥檛 be a profitable sales channel, then use it strategically instead. Many CPG brands simply won鈥檛 ever generate more than 1% of sales D2C.

Total sales will rise from $562.62 billion in 2023 to $843.93 billion in 2025, per our forecast. In 2023, there will be 373.7 million digital buyers in China making purchases through livestreaming video, a 42.1% penetration rate.

When stores shut down in early 2020, Sephora was prepared: The brand quickly expanded its ecommerce services to include same-day delivery; reserve online, pick up in-store; virtual consultations; and more payment options, growing online sales by 75% that year. Headless commerce helps grow international sales.

Social commerce penetration is highest among the 18-to-24-year-old cohort, per our forecast: 60.7% of the population in this group will be social buyers in 2024, and the share will rise to nearly 65% in 2027.

Gen Z shoppers embrace Temu, Shein, and TikTok Shop: 1 in 4 makes a purchase at a Chinese online marketplace at least once a week, as their array of cheap, trendy goods proves impossible for the price-sensitive cohort to resist.

The beauty brand鈥檚 sales increased 50% YoY for the latest quarter. In August, e.l.f. went for the gold, capitalizing on Olympics momentum by working with medal-winning athletes such as gymnast Gabby Douglas and swimmer Anastasia Pagonis. 鈥淚t鈥檚 so smart for a beauty brand to partner with Olympians, because no one's makeup is staying put better than those Olympians,鈥� said Lebow. 5. ThredUp.

Social commerce. High-quality content is central to any social commerce strategy, but many retailers and brands lack the in-house expertise to produce such content. Generative AI could reduce that friction because it offers a cost-effective way to create blogs, captions, images, and videos to help convert social shoppers.

Gen Zers are more likely than any other age group to have brand loyalty鈥攅ven if it means spending more. As this younger generation's spending power continues to grow, how can brands win them over for good? Find out more in our latest data drop.

BuzzFeed has created a commerce site for its lifestyle brand, Goodful, while Time has launched a platform for product recommendations and reviews. TikTok鈥檚 Pulse Premiere program offers publishers 50% of ad revenues and a brand safety guarantee.

Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales; furniture sales; electronics and appliance sales; building material and garden equipment sales; food and beverage sales; health and personal care sales; gasoline sales; clothing and clothing accessories sales; sporting goods, hobby, book, and physical music sales; general merchandise sales; miscellaneous sales; nonstore sales (i.e., pure-play ecommerce platform sales

Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales; furniture sales; electronics and appliance sales; building material and garden equipment sales; food and beverage sales; health and personal care sales; gasoline sales; clothing and clothing accessories sales; sporting goods, hobby, book, and physical music sales; general merchandise sales; miscellaneous sales; nonstore sales (i.e., pure-play ecommerce platform sales

Social commerce is also growing, with 33% of US adults ages 18 to 34 making purchases on social platforms like Instagram and TikTok, according to an April 2024 蘑菇AV survey. Additionally, 20% of Gen Z shoppers in Walmart鈥檚 survey think shopping through social media makes the experience more convenient and enjoyable. Social media is a must to reach younger consumers.

While most online marketplaces have policies in place prohibiting the sale of counterfeit goods, identifying those sellers鈥� accounts and removing the listings can feel like a game of Whac-A-Mole given that new listings routinely pop up soon after others are removed.

This spring, Boots plans to tap into social commerce opportunities by launching a TikTok shop for its No7 brand. Viral trends drive sales. The 鈥渄olphin skin鈥� trend helped boost sales of prestige face creams, face serums with hydrating properties, face mists, radiant foundations, and highlighters in the UK last year, per NPD. Beauty influencers aren鈥檛 influential with all consumers.

While that may change, retailers (and platforms) may find more success leaning into more proven social commerce tools. Go further: Read our Social Commerce Forecast 2022 report. This article originally appeared in Insider Intelligence's Retail & Ecommerce Briefing鈥攁 daily recap of top stories reshaping the retail industry. Subscribe to have more hard-hitting takeaways delivered to your inbox daily.

The big takeaway: Brands that are serious about live commerce will have to invest in building communities before they can focus on driving sales. That means finding the right talent鈥攃reators who are capable of both getting shoppers to tune in, and of finding new ways to connect with them day after day.