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Navigating US sanctions and a Chinese antitrust investigation could derail Nvidia鈥檚 supply chain, delay cutting-edge hardware, and challenge its dominance in a global market.

This is the first installment of our 鈥凌别迟补颈濒 and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks鈥� series, which helps retailers calibrate their sales mix against the market.

Like Best Buy, Target, and virtually every other retailer at this point, Ulta sees its forthcoming marketplace as an opportunity to expand its assortment without having to bulk up inventory鈥攁s well as a chance to beef up ad revenues for its retail media network. It plans to improve the guest experience with deeper personalization, enhancements to its app and website, and better stores.

However, search still commands a sizable share of digital spending that will be maintained by growth in retail media search. Retail media remains the fastest-growing ad channel. Most of the growth is tied to ever-rising retail ecommerce. Retail media鈥檚 valuable first-party data is now being used for ads targeted in-store and in nonendemic channels like CTV.

Limited merchant acceptance limits ACH networks鈥� share of retail payments. But this will likely change as they get faster, safer, and more accessible. A push to cut costs and increase control over payment systems among both merchants and sovereign nations could benefit ACH networks by increasing their volume both within and beyond retail. Key Trends We鈥檙e Watching.

Retail media platforms like Amazon offer many of the same benefits that social platforms do, including a large and engaged audience, targeted advertising, and ecommerce integrations. A burgeoning list of companies are throwing their hats in the ring in the US, Europe, and Latin America; the threat of retail media to the social platforms鈥� future ad revenue growth cannot be ignored.

Retail media. Over 9 in 10 US marketers who invest in creator marketing planned to promote their partnerships via retail media networks in 2025, per Q3 2024 data from LTK and Northwestern University. That trend will help drive retail media ad spending, which will rise by 20.2% YoY in 2025. Brand deals are no longer bound to social platforms.

For Pix, partnerships with major global brands like Spotify鈥攅xpanding its operations beyond peer-to-peer payments and into retail鈥攃an increase volume and user numbers. Pix can use partnerships and new product features to sustain growth and eat into payment cards鈥� market share. Tie-ins with Spotify and Banco do Brasil, which enabled Pix payments through WhatsApp, will help do that.

For Fiserv, acquisitions can strengthen its offering in the retail space. And it could support Clover鈥檚 push to grow at sporting venues and arenas to attract a wider base of clients and drive revenues. Clover is already a big earner for Fiserv: Its annualized gross payment volume in Q1 was $231 billion, up 17% year over year.

Asia-Pacific remained a global hotspot in 2023, with six of the top 10 fastest-growing retail ecommerce markets worldwide. In particular, China's online shopping market showed signs of resiliency, with growth rates in the double digits.

Washington will have an outsized influence on what consumers eat this year: A new surgeon general鈥檚 warning, growing trade wars, and a crackdown on processed food could shift consumption patterns.

Netflix gets a boost from Latin America in Q1: The region is a vital market for new users and incremental revenue growth, despite the controversial clampdown on password sharing.

Discretionary categories including retail, travel, and entertainment led growth. New international card partnerships. Visa launched a bevy of new consumer credit cards like one with digital bank Neon in Brazil. Visa is also trying to take volume from local networks: It partnered with Dutch Bangla Bank to take over 6 million credentials in Bangladesh, for example.

We're also always looking at Latin America because we have a good understanding of some of the countries there鈥攍ocal merchant behavior, customer spend patterns. We may slow down, but expansion is one of our core purposes. And one of our mission statements is to be the world's first truly global payments and acceptance brand.

Why it could work: The central bank is focusing on wholesale transactions rather than a retail CBDC because the country already has strong digital payment uptake thanks to the success of Pix. Instead, Brazil wants to emulate Pix鈥檚 success in other areas of financial services.

Shein regains access to India for the first time since 2020: The move comes at the same time that it faces significant challenges in both the US and EU.

The trend: Despite a solid close to 2024, retail-related headlines with 鈥渨eaker-than-expected guidance鈥� are becoming the norm as companies from Amazon to Levi Strauss to Whirlpool point to challenges ahead. Why is this happening? There are five interrelated reasons that retailers are feeling glum:. The labor marketing is moderating.