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Tariffs threaten to reduce US digital ad spending growth this year. This series explains the effects tariffs will have on ad spending in search, social, CTV, and retail media鈥攁nd which parts of each might fare best and worst.

The news: Temu鈥檚 foothold in the US is shrinking as the company pulls back sharply on advertising. Weekly sales slumped more than 25% YoY between May 11 and June 8, according to Bloomberg Second Measure. Our take: Given the importance of the US market to Temu and its merchants, it鈥檚 possible that its current pause on US ad spending and shift to Europe is a temporary effort to regroup as it searches for a business model more resistant to tariffs and the end of de minimis. At the same time, the longer the pause goes on, the more ground it will cede to Shein and other competitors鈥攁nd the harder it will be to regain market share.

The 2024 US presidential election ushered in a new normal in brand safety, with prominent social media companies such as X and Meta shifting the burden of content moderation from internal teams and contractors to users.

As US-imposed trade tariffs begin to take effect, business decision-makers and consumers are grappling with how to prepare鈥攕ome more than others.

Digital audio consumption continues to grow in the US. Younger audiences are leading the way, adopting platforms like Spotify and audio content like podcasts.

The news: Deutsche Bank plans to launch a digital asset custody service next year, which would allow clients to securely store cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets. It initially announced its custody plans in 2022. Our take: These two German banks鈥� announcements signal growing confidence among European financial institutions in embracing digital assets. We expect more of them to follow suit in the coming year.The trend could also pick up pace in the US amid a favorable environment: Several major US banks already offer crypto asset services, but recent developments like the withdrawal of previous cautionary guidance by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency could spur more major US banks to jump in.

The news: The Trump administration recently met with leading retailers, including Amazon and Walmart, to explore ways in which more US consumers can get their prescription medications directly from pharma manufacturers, according to a Bloomberg report. Our take: It鈥檚 unrealistic to expect pharma鈥檚 middlemen to be cut out anytime soon, as they are so deeply rooted in the US healthcare infrastructure.

The situation: A perfect storm of consumer pullbacks, rising prices from new tariffs, and the suspension of the de minimis tax exemption will drag US ecommerce sales growth this year to its weakest pace since the Great Recession in 2009. We expect US online sales to grow just 5.0% this year in our moderate tariff scenario, which reflects the current policy landscape. That鈥檚 a 3-percentage-point drop from last year. Looking ahead: We expect ecommerce growth to experience a modest rebound to 5.3% growth in 2026. But more headwinds are on the horizon. The tax-and-spending package known as the 鈥淥ne Big Beautiful Bill鈥� will close the de minimis loophole that lets most packages under $800 enter duty-free from countries outside China and Hong Kong. While that will eliminate the possibility of some workarounds, it could also reshape the economics of cross-border ecommerce鈥攁nd place even more strain on platforms, suppliers, and price-sensitive consumers alike.

Amazon Prime is deeply entrenched in the US, with 75% of households as members. Despite this saturation, Amazon sees growth opportunities in international markets and among underpenetrated US demographics: rural, younger, and lower-income consumers. These groups show untapped potential, said Jamil Ghani, Amazon Prime鈥檚 worldwide VP. Prime fuels Amazon鈥檚 ecosystem鈥攎embers spend more by using benefits like streaming, pharmacy, Grubhub+, and free shipping. In contrast, nonmembers often spend less over time. By expanding perks and appealing to new segments, Amazon uses Prime to drive loyalty, customer lifetime value, and resilience against macroeconomic shifts.

Canada trails just one country鈥攖he US鈥攊n average daily time spent with media. That means plenty of opportunity for media buyers to reach audiences across a range of devices and services.

A trade war with the US will hinder economic performance in Canada this year. Ad spending overall is expected to lose the momentum gained in 2024. But many digital formats will benefit from the emphasis on return on ad spending.

The news: Podcasts are becoming a popular way for brands to reach engaged audiences, with viewership mounting and new platforms throwing their hats in the ring. Podcast viewership is thriving, reaching over 140 million US listeners in 2025, according to our forecast. Listeners will surpass 150 million by 2027. Our take: Podcasts are shaping up to become a strong contender in media consumption, with nearly 70% of US adults ages 18 to 24 listening at least one per month, per our forecast. As platforms battle to be the leading home for podcasts, advertisers need to pay attention and tailor strategies.

The news: US shopper interest in generative AI (genAI) assistants has spiked 223% between 2023 and 2025, per Chain Store Age. 69% of US consumers surveyed by CouponFollow have used AI assistants for shopping. Our take: Retail AI strategies must match their audiences. Those geared toward younger consumers should highlight AI use and innovation and even let AI guide purchases. For older consumers, focus on AI to inform, not take control.

A new poll finds consumers in the US and UK are almost evenly split鈥擥en Z is upbeat, Gen X is gloomy鈥攁mid a cost-of-living crunch and rapid tech gains. The results remind brand marketers that price, value, and purpose now collide at every purchase decision.

US consumers will spend 8.6 hours daily with digital media in 2025. How they divide that time across devices is evolving as video content drives strong growth in connected TV usage.

Almost a third (32%) of US and UK game players actively ignore in-game ads, while the same number finds them helpful, according to May data from Attest.

The US-China trade war drives Shein to diversify its sourcing: Shein and Reliance Retail plan to start international sales of India-made Shein-branded clothes within six to 12 months.

The only certain thing about TikTok鈥檚 sale is more uncertainty: Washington keeps kicking the can on a US sale, leaving TikTok to convince advertisers not to panic.

TikTok shifts away from free traffic for US merchants: The change will require businesses to pay for ads for visibility, but TikTok remains a critical touchpoint.

Streaming now grabs nearly 44% of US TV time鈥攎ostly ad-supported鈥攁nd more than half of marketers expect to raise connected TV (CTV) budgets in 2025, new research from Nielsen shows. As dollars flow from linear to streaming, unified cross-channel measurement is becoming the new must-have.

Hims & Hers expands in Europe via telehealth acquisition: Hims purchased a company with a similar business model overseas. We believe it鈥檚 a sign that Hims is losing its competitive advantage in the US weight loss drug space.

Two-thirds of US retail media buyers expect to spend more on video advertising over the next 12 months, according to March 2025 data from Koddi. Nearly as many (63%) will up their investments in social media.

The news: The UK economy contracted by the most in 18 months in April due to the twin pressures of tariffs and tax increases. Our take: The UK economy鈥檚 contraction in April sets the stage for another year of tepid growth. Despite a highly publicized (and yet to be finalized) trade deal with the US, macroeconomic uncertainties are set to weigh heavily on corporate and consumer sentiment, while rising household and business expenses will limit investment and consumer spending.

The news: US pharma imports returned to normal in April after a March stockpiling of drugs and medical products spurred by tariff threats from the Trump administration. The takeaway: Fluctuating tariff threats from the Trump administration means ongoing uncertainty for drugmakers. If the indecision lags for more than a few months, expect some pharma product stockpiling to return.