Ä¢¹½AV

Estée Lauder expects net sales to fall up to 12% this quarter: That exceeds the 6.8% decline analysts forecast and shows the need to adapt amid deep staff cuts.

The data point: Household spending jumped 4.2% QoQ in Q4, up from 3.7% in Q3 and well above analysts’ 3.2% forecast, per the US Commerce Department. This marked the strongest gain since Q2 2023 and the first time since late 2021 that spending growth topped 3% for two consecutive quarters. Spending on goods was particularly strong, surging 6.6% QoQ, or 3.5% YoY.

Cyber Monday will generate $13.93 billion in US ecommerce sales this year, the highest of any Cyber Five day, according to a July 2024 Ä¢¹½AV forecast.

The pandemic ecommerce boom that drove online sales is over. But marketplaces will continue to expand their share of US retail ecommerce, contributing almost 40% of the $588 billion in US online sales growth that we forecast over the next five years.

Smaller retailers are gaining share and reshaping the ecommerce landscape, but will they be able compete with giants like Amazon?

US ecommerce growth will come from large retail categories with historically low online sales share. And growth will stay healthy even as traditional drivers of online sales take a backseat to emerging categories.

As consumers continue to grapple with inflation and economic uncertainty, our inaugural forecast shows that the US resale market will remain one of the fastest-growing segments in retail.

Amazon is on a never-ending mission to speed up delivery: The retailer’s latest initiatives, including smart glasses and streamlined grocery fulfillment, will help cut costs and encourage shoppers to order more—and more often.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss why households with no pay-TV (traditional or digital) will be the majority and if livestream shopping in America can become habitual. Tune in to the conversation with Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Principal Forecasting Writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, and Senior Director of Forecasting Oscar Orozco. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.

The news: Amazon announced its Prime Day event will run from July 8 at 12:01 a.m. PDT through July 11, starting eight days earlier than last year and lasting twice as long as previous events. Our take: Amazon recognizes that while consumers have grown more selective about when and where they spend, many will still jump at the chance to save if they find compelling offers. By extending Prime Day’s duration, adding tech-driven shopping tools, and broadening its footprint across countries and third-party sites, Amazon is turning the event into an inescapable, large-scale retail moment. Even in a margin-squeezed environment, the visibility and sales potential of Prime Day may be too significant for sellers to pass up.

Airlines expect robust travel demand in 2025: United and Alaska echoed Delta’s bullish forecast following record Q4 performances.

84% of US adults believe private label foods are more affordable, according to an August 2024 survey from Ipsos. Nearly as many say private label quality is just as good as, or better than, name brands.

If you want to learn how to get insights like these delivered to your inbox every day, and get access to our data-driven forecasts, reports, and industry benchmarks, schedule a demo with our sales team.

The economy is trending in a positive direction: US consumer prices rose in December by less than forecast. We expect the Fed will stick with a wait-and-see approach.

This year, mobile commerce has not only broken records, but also continued to solidify itself as a driving force behind ecommerce growth. More than two-thirds (67.4%) of the US population will be mcommerce buyers this year, spending $534.8 billion on their mobile devices, per our July 2024 forecast. Here are five key stats that underscore the expanding mcommerce opportunity, plus ways for brands and retailers to capitalize.

US ecommerce sales rose 8.7% YoY to a record $241.1 billion, per Adobe—not far off our projection of 9.0% ecommerce growth. Total holiday retail sales between November 1 and December 24 increased 3.8% YoY, per Mastercard SpendingPulse data. Excluding autos, in-store sales rose 2.9% YoY, compared with a more robust 6.7% jump in ecommerce sales. We expected holiday sales to grow 4.3% last year.

US ad spend on financial media networks (FMNs) will more than double in 2025 and again in 2026. But with just $710 million projected in US ad spend in 2025, per June 2024 Ä¢¹½AV forecast, FMN ad spend will be 18 times smaller than retail media network (RMN) ad spend.

Netflix and YouTube are siphoning subscription revenues from pay TV’s losses. By the end of 2025, more than half of US video subscription revenues will go to streaming services.