蘑菇AV

But as financial pressure mounts and President Trump threatens tariffs, beauty sales won鈥檛 grow as anticipated鈥攃ausing us to lower our US beauty sales forecast to $99.57 billion from $102 billion previously. The Gen X factor: Further along in their careers and more likely to have older children, Gen X represents a major opportunity for beauty brands.

Zelle's US P2P transaction value is expected to jump up 24% YoY this year, per our forecasts. This growth is especially impressive given Zelle is already the largest US P2P app, giving it a shorter runway for growth than its peers. We forecast Zelle will account for 54.6% of total mobile P2P transaction value in 2025, compared with Venmo鈥檚 20.5% and Cash App鈥檚 10.6%.

The Asia-Pacific retail ecommerce sector is both dynamic and volatile. While China and Japan are slowing, South Korea is growing rapidly, and emerging markets like Southeast Asia and India are showing robust growth and untapped potential.

Offering BNPL at checkout can make its buy button more attractive to the 91.5 million US users we forecast will pay with BNPL this year. And Afterpay will gain access to Cash App鈥檚 57 million active users, which can help the BNPL provider circumvent an industrywide user growth slowdown. Our take: Block is trying to tie its various brands more closely to Cash App.

鈥淎mazon is in such a unique position to give us an idea of broader consumer sentiment because of their scale and reach,鈥� our analyst Sarah Marzano said on an episode of the 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail鈥� podcast. This year, nearly three-quarters (72.7%) of all US households will be Prime members, according to our July 2024 forecast. 鈥淚f we examine the behaviors that emerge from Prime Day, we get a good sense of how consumers are feeling.鈥�

And getting consumers to own crypto is a major step in converting them to crypto payment users: We forecast only 2% of US internet users will make a crypto payment this year, or 16% of crypto owners. Our take: Despite the Trump administration鈥檚 commitment to crypto, the industry still faces hurdles to becoming mainstream.

US card fraud losses will remain sky-high despite slowing growth as credit cards and card-not-present fraud drive risk for merchants, issuers, and consumers alike鈥攑ushing new technology adoption and consumer education strategies to lower risk.

We forecast 90.0 million people will use AR in the US this year, interacting with it in ways that increase retail sales and advertising engagements.

As US mcommerce sales approach nearly half of total US online sales, marketers need to adopt mobile-first strategies that improve both the shopping and checkout experience. For those looking to boost adoption for their mobile shopping apps, banner ads are the best deal, though more interactive ad formats could become popular as retailers gamify their apps.

We forecast that US BNPL payment value will rise 15% YoY this year, compared with 20.8% YoY in 2024. And card issuers have been ramping up their offerings to capitalize on consumers鈥� interest in installment plans. Chase rolled out Travel Now, Pay Later in July, an installment offering linked to the Marriott Bonvoy Bold card.

US ad spending is projected to grow 6.8% next year, surpassing $400 billion, according to 蘑菇AV鈥檚 forecast. Despite robust ad spending growth, AI tools, advancements in attribution, and cautious consumer behavior will add complexity for the latter half of 2024.

Our annual report on ecommerce in Canada highlights our most recent forecasts for all flavors of retail, including brick-and-mortar, digital buying, and mobile commerce.

We forecast 碍濒补谤苍补鈥檚 US total payment value will reach $41.58 million in 2028. And depending on its approach, Klarna could meet growing demand for crypto services.

This week, consumers are concerned about tariffs but continue shopping via mobile and on low-price retailers associated with China. Consumers are also less focused on fast delivery and flocking to Google for reviews.

There鈥檚 no denying the importance of brick and mortar: Physical stores will account for 83.8% of US retail sales, per our forecast. However, the way shoppers interact with stores has shifted over the past few years, forcing retailers to experiment with new formats.

Gen Zers will account for 30.2% of US BNPL users this year, according to our forecast. Our take: BNPL providers may need to regain Gen Z鈥檚 trust by meeting them where they鈥檙e at and emphasizing financial control. Financial management features like in-app budgeting controls could help.

Online resale merchandise value will reach $40 billion in the US by 2029, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%, according to March data from thredUP.

The share of US consumers who said they鈥檇 purchased something from a shoppable ad on CTV increased nearly 50% from February 2024 to August 2024, per our survey conducted by Bizrate Insights. Click here to view our full forecast for US retail media CTV ad spending. Predictions. As CTV-RMN partnerships deepen, new ad types will flourish.

PayPal partnered with Verifone to pair the point-of-sale (POS) provider鈥檚 hardware with Braintree鈥檚 payment processing and ecommerce capabilities, which are being rebranded as PayPal Enterprise Payments. This can help the company, which dominates ecommerce checkout, make inroads in store.

Gen Zers will account for 30.2% of US BNPL users, per our 2025 forecast, signaling a lasting shift in how younger consumers approach spending and credit. Our take: Retailers like Bath & Body Works are smart to adapt stores for Gen Z with video displays and digital integration. To further their appeal, they should emphasize affordable indulgences, flexible payments, and values-driven messaging.

US click-and-collect sales growth will slow slightly over the course of the next few years, per our forecast, as adoption levels off after an acceleration in 2020. Still, sales will increase by double-digit percentages both this year and next and reach $131.66 billion by 2026.