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Shoppers are relying on their smartphones more, as enhancements in mobile payments, social media checkout, and retailer apps make purchases easier than ever. This year, US shoppers will spend $558.29 billion on their mobile devices, accounting for 44.6% of overall ecommerce sales, according to our November 2023 forecast. We delve into the consumer embrace of mcommerce, unpacking three key drivers.

More consumers are shopping online for household essentials, including food and beverages and health, personal care, and beauty products. The two categories are expected to see the most growth in their share of ecommerce sales from now until the end of our forecast period in 2028. Here鈥檚 a closer look at the state of US ecommerce, why household goods are fueling the market, and the consumer behavior steering it all.

US ecommerce sales rose from just $169.92 billion in 2010 to $1.193 trillion this year, per our forecast. Direct mail鈥檚 share of total advertising spend has declined, dipping from 12% in 2010 to 4% in 2023, per the US Postal Service鈥檚 Household Diary studies. However, the ecommerce landscape has become increasingly crowded, and retailers that want to stand out may consider a more analog approach. J.

Retaliatory tariffs from other countries could also harm US exports. Will the housing market thaw? Record-high home prices and elevated mortgage rates have created one of the most unaffordable housing markets in a generation. Only 2.5% of US homes changed hands in the first eight months of 2024, the lowest rate in at least 30 years, per Redfin.

The data: US retail spending from November 1 to December 24 rose 3.8% YoY, per Mastercard SpendingPulse, excluding auto sales. Ecommerce sales were up 6.7% YoY, while in-store sales increased 2.9%. Restaurant spending led the gains, jumping 6.3% YoY, along with goods categories such as jewelry (4.0% YoY), electronics (3.7% YoY), and apparel (3.6% YoY).

US sales of luxury goods rose 14% YoY during Black Friday, per Signifyd, while the average price per item was 13% lower. More shoppers are avoiding brands鈥� flagship stores in favor of outlets or off-price retailers where they can score designer goods for a fraction of the original price. Our take: The luxury market is under pressure as consumers in the US and China cut spending.

Annual ecommerce sales fulfilled via delivery will go up by more than $400 billion in the next three years. But to access this opportunity, brands and retailers need to navigate a complex set of fulfillment options and find ways to meet growing consumer expectations.

What fueled interest: In February, we reported that YouTube was the top-watched streamer for 12 consecutive months; by midyear, YouTube racked up the best-ever US TV viewership month for a streaming platform. CEO Neal Mohan attributed much of the growth to sports content and CTV viewing.

Despite growing competition from the likes of Walmart and Temu, the retailer strengthened its grip on US ecommerce, established itself as an ad giant, and stayed relevant with price-conscious shoppers.

A bad in-store experience will drive many shoppers online: Consumers are frustrated by how many items are locked up and how difficult it can be to find help.

We estimate that US affiliate marketing spending will top $10 billion for the first time this year and will exceed $15 billion in 2028. Click here to view our full forecast for US affiliate marketing spending. Some advertisers and publishers have gotten off to a rough start in 2024. Revenue growth for some has not recovered after a tough end to 2023.

Amazon will capture more than half (51.1%) of all retail ecommerce sales in Germany this year, according to our forecast. Canada will have the second-highest share of Amazon ecommerce sales among the countries we track, at 41.5%, followed by the US, UK, Japan, and Mexico.

Still, Shein remains a heavyweight in the US and UK fast-fashion scenes as younger shoppers snap up its cheap, trendy products.

Paze also recently became available at major US banks. The wallet identifies consumers by the email address they use with their bank and their bank-enrolled phone number. And Mastercard plans to eliminate manual card entry and passwords at checkout by 2030 by investing in tokenization and biometric authentication. Our take: Passwordless checkout will soon become expected by consumers.

Categories that drive back-to-school shopping have high ecommerce penetration in general: 4 of the top 5 categories in US retail by ecommerce penetration are back-to-school sales drivers.

Go further: Read our US Holiday Shopping 2024 report. This article is part of 蘑菇AV鈥檚 client-only subscription Briefings鈥攄aily newsletters authored by industry analysts who are experts in marketing, advertising, media, and tech trends.