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through retail media networks that may not appear on ecommerce sites or apps.

Why it matters: US creators will generate $17.76 billion from their activities on social media alone, per our new forecast. Most (59.2%) of those revenues will come from influencer marketing. We expect spending on social media sponsored content to surpass $10 billion this year, one year earlier than we previously predicted.

We forecast that Affirm commands 30.6% of total US payment value penetration for BNPL, making it the running leader of the BNPL field in the US. Affirm can use the new FICO scores to attract users who want the benefit of boosting their credit scores through responsible BNPL use. Our take: Reporting BNPL data to the credit bureaus would be a solid step toward combatting BNPL鈥檚 鈥減hantom debt鈥� criticism.

The number of Gen Z mobile proximity payment users will rise from 32.8 million in 2024 to 50.0 million in 2028, per our forecast鈥攚hich will represent 37.7% of overall users. That year, we expect 70.6% of Gen Z internet users to make mobile proximity payments. Click here to view our full forecast for US proximity mobile payment users, by generation.

We forecast that 38 million US Gen Zers will pay with proximity mobile payments this year鈥攐r 57.2% of all US Gen Zers. Edging out the competition: Venmo is coming off of a robust first quarter, with revenues growing 20% YoY, Pay with Venmo鈥檚 total payment volume up more than 50%, and the number of Venmo Debit Card monthly active cardholders up 40%.

Encouraged by its success, AppLovin plans a larger ecommerce expansion in 2025.

Our expanded Latin America retail and ecommerce coverage now includes breakouts for 16 markets across Mexico, Central America, and South America. Brazil and Mexico will drive the bulk of net new ecommerce sales this year with a combined regional market share of 75.2%.

Is the retail health clinic business model dead? Our forecasts project fewer consumers will visit a retail clinic such as CVS or Walgreens every year through 2026. We detail why below.

With origins in performance advertising and a focus on efficiency, retail media is likely to remain resilient, even amid an economic upheaval exacerbated by US tariffs. However, impacts won鈥檛 be evenly felt, leaving some players better positioned to withstand headwinds.

Consumers are cautiously optimistic about AI use. Over 100 million people will use generative AI (genAI) in the US this year, per our June 2024 forecast. But many are still distrustful of the tech as it relates to consumer privacy, personalization, and its capacity to hallucinate. Here are five charts demonstrating how consumers really feel about AI, and what marketers can do to make them more comfortable with the evolving technology.

Luxury brands are grappling with downturns in the US and China, the largest markets for personal luxury goods, and will have to seize opportunities for growth from new markets and product innovation.

We forecast just 1.9% of US adults will make a payment with crypto in 2025. Early conversations among major financial institutions signal a willingness from traditional banking to engage鈥攖o a degree鈥攚ith crypto. Our take: Adopting an institutional stablecoin would mean financial institutions are taking a chance on new tech to optimize their traditional payment networks.

How we got here: Nike鈥檚 misplaced bet on direct-to-consumer sales (a topic we explore in today鈥檚 episode of 鈥淩eimagining Retail鈥�) enabled On and other upstart brands to grab valuable shelf space, driving shoppers to give their offerings a try. On took the opportunity and ran with it. It focused on product innovation.

US click-and-collect sales growth will slow slightly over the course of the next few years, per our forecast, as adoption levels off after an acceleration in 2020. Still, sales will increase by double-digit percentages both this year and next and reach $131.66 billion by 2026.

When it comes to retail memberships, Amazon is the leader, boasting 97.2 million household Amazon Prime members across the US, nearly three-quarters of the country鈥檚 total households, per our forecast. Taking a page from Amazon鈥檚 playbook, retailers like Walmart, Best Buy, and Target are using their own members-only sales events to build out their retail memberships.

US social commerce sales will crack the $100 billion mark in 2026, growing 18.0% YoY, per our forecast. TikTok Shop鈥檚 explosion is the driving force, with other volume growth spread across Facebook, Instagram, and Pinterest. Click here to view our full forecast for US retail social commerce sales. Payment gateways will compete for this share of retail sales.

We forecast 础蹿蹿颈谤尘鈥檚 US payment value will total $30.58 billion this year, up 15% YoY. Building a relationship with a new issuer is also a smart move for Affirm given Evolve Bank鈥檚 current regulatory issues, which could lead to Affirm needing to break off the tie-up in the future.

While retail media networks (RMNs) sell brand safety and predictability to marketers, influencer marketing boasts direct access to loyal audiences. Pairing these two channels together, experts stress, can drive significant growth for brands. Nine in 10 US marketers plan to promote their creator partnerships via RMNs in 2025, according to an October 2024 LTK survey.

Our first-ever worldwide forecast for retail media ad spending shows enduring momentum and lots of good news for Amazon and other ecommerce platforms around the world.

Klarna will generate $33.38 billion in US buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment value by 2027, pulling ahead of Affirm in a period of massive growth for BNPL providers, per our forecast.

Pinterest gets an Amazon bump, but the holiday is gray: A lower- than- expected Q4 forecast and heavy spending sent its stock tumbling.