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But despite all the hype, we forecast that user growth is already slowing sharply—even though BNPL will make up just 1.3% of all US retail sales volume. Here, we look at some of the biggest trends that shaped BNPL in 2024—and what they mean for the year to come. Partnerships galore. BNPL firms scored high-profile tie-ups with everyone from mobile wallets to payment networks.

More than half (55%) of US merchants said they have requested new technologies from the PSPs, per the study. The most requested feature was one-click solutions, which 45% of US merchants asked their PSPs for. More than one-quarter of merchants requested adding secure card on file capabilities. And 25% requested biometric authentication.

US retailers have closed more than 7,100 stores this year: That’s up 69% YoY, and more are coming as retailers like Macy’s and Advance Auto Parts struggle to convince cautious consumers to spend.

53% of US holiday season digital sales will come from mobile this year, per Adobe Analytics data. That marks the second consecutive year mobile has accounted for more than half of holiday sales.

Amazon working conditions are back in the spotlight: A potential strike looms, and a Senate investigation found the retailer manipulates workplace injury data.

TikTok is inching closer to a US ban, which would cut the app off from a crucial ecommerce market—unless President-elect Donald Trump issues a reprieve. All three platforms will also have to contend with stricter de minimis rules, which will force them to shift their supply-chain tactics and build up local fulfillment networks. The era of easy growth is over.

Amazon took legal action against more than 150 bad actors across the US, China, and Europe in 2023. In late October, the retailer and Google filed parallel lawsuits against Bigboostup.com, a site that reportedly sold fake product reviews for Amazon listings and fraudulent reviews for business listings on Google Search and Maps.

Our take: Amazon sees a massive opportunity in India, a country where we expect ecommerce sales to soar 18% this year to $115.76 billion. Given the country’s rapid growth and importance, Amazon can’t afford to ignore consumers’ need for speed.

Our revised US resale forecast reflects a slowdown for the ecommerce-dominated market, as the cost of selling one-of-a-kind items online comes into focus.

However, its recent unsuccessful attempt to avert the US ban throws its future into question. If TikTok is forced to sell to a US company by January 19, it’s uncertain what role social commerce will play in its future.

Ecommerce sales will return to double-digit growth this holiday season amid a backdrop of healthy consumer spending.