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Our latest forecasts for CTV and digital video viewers in Canada show that audiences are now a match for linear TV and exceed it in some age groups.

This could lead to a wave of consolidation among CTV providers, with smaller players integrating into larger ones like Amazon Prime or Apple TV, said Dan Larkman, CEO of Keynes Digital. Increasing customer acquisition costs may lead to consolidation of CTV inventory and a rise in performance-driven CTV ads, said Sambit Patnaik, vice president of product management at Yieldmo.

As Amazon Prime Video, Peacock, and Apple TV+ compete for similar rights, Netflix's subscriber base, which we forecast will grow 9.3% next year to reach 759.2 million viewers, makes it an appealing partner for sports leagues trying to reach mass audiences.

Apple TV+ is the biggest advertising holdout among subscription streaming services. Commercials appear during live sports shown on Apple TV+, but the sports leagues sell that advertising themselves. In February 2023, The Information reported that Apple hired an executive focused on building an ads business for Apple TV+.

After Amazon Prime Video introduced its ad plan in January, Apple TV+ became the biggest advertising holdout among streamers. Advertising holdouts have gradually accepted commercial breaks in their programming. Netflix will generate 53.6% more ad revenues per ad-supported viewer than Hulu in 2024, per our new forecast.

Major League Soccer has served as its primary channel for advertising on Apple TV+ as the streaming service goes through a turbulent period of executive shuffling on its long-rumored path to an ad-supported subscription tier. The App Store has been a much more consistent ad channel for Apple, which is leaning increasingly on advertising as hardware sales slow down.

We had seen this coming on with Amazon and Apple TV, but I think Netflix with it's how many, over, close to 760 million viewers worldwide by the end of this year, that those are big numbers.

This has happened as YouTube and Paramount+ expanded their share of OTT subscription revenues, and the nascent businesses of Peacock and Apple TV+ found larger audiences. Netflix is squeezing more money out of its viewers. Netflix鈥檚 US audience is saturated, as the service will reach more than three-fourths of US subscription OTT users this year.

Titles are primarily available on mobile devices, and its catalog can only be played on select TVs鈥攏otably omitting Apple TV鈥攖hrough a beta program. Our take: As Netflix pours significant spending into new sports offerings, investing hundreds of millions of dollars into long-term gaming projects could be too risky, especially when competing with devoted large-scale game publishers.

The news: Apple TV+ will soon arrive on Prime Video at the cost of $9.99 per month, the two companies announced. Prime Video customers who pay for the add-on streaming service will have access to Apple TV+鈥檚 full catalog, including hit shows like 鈥淪everance鈥� and 鈥淭ed Lasso,鈥� in addition to Major League Soccer and Major League Baseball matches.

NFL games in foreign markets could allow smaller streamers like Apple TV+ or Paramount+ to give negotiations another shot after being outbid in the last clash over streaming rights.

Here are five charts that reveal the scale and outlook for CTV from the perspective of its access points.

With most of the US already watching, growth in overall OTT viewership has slowed to a crawl. But some platforms, formats, and service tiers are still booming, and digital pay TV is complicating the linear TV narrative.

Over the past three years, Apple TV+ canceled a smaller share of its shows than any other major streaming service, according to a September 2023 Variety and Luminate report. Apple鈥檚 low cancellation rate reflects its programming strategy: Although it produces few shows, what it does greenlight tends to be high-end scripted dramas. On the high end, Max canceled more than one-fourth of its shows.

TV networks and streaming services are becoming more selective about producing new content. As a result, reruns of licensed shows and streamed live sports will become more important to marketers.

In the past two years, Amazon Prime Video, YouTube TV, and Apple TV+ have exclusively licensed NFL Thursday Night Football, NFL Sunday Ticket, and Major League Soccer, respectively. In addition, Max, Peacock, and Paramount+ have doubled down on sports rights, while ESPN is pivoting from a cable network to a D2C streaming service.

Instead, 鈥淲olfs鈥� debuted in a limited number of theaters before becoming available on Apple TV+ last week. Moving forward, Apple will focus more on streaming content, though it still plans to make one or two big-budget films a year, including the highly anticipated 鈥淔1鈥� starring Pitt.

The CTV ad market is still adjusting to having Netflix and Disney+ in the space, but if other major providers like Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV+ launch ad tiers, buyers may get another dose of whiplash鈥攅specially if those major players come to market with inflated rates. On the flip side, incumbents including Warner Bros.