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Steep discounts drove record Black Friday online sales: Ecommerce sales surged on the day after Thanksgiving, while brick-and-mortar sales grew just 1.1% YoY.

Thursday Night Football shows viewership metrics don鈥檛 say it all: Amazon鈥檚 Black Friday audience was far lower than expected, but DTC opportunities drove brand excitement.

Black Friday sales totaled $9.8 billion this year, according to Adobe Analytics, just below our June 2023 forecast of $10.4 billion.

31% of US internet users will shop this Black Friday. The same amount will also shop Cyber Monday, according to Deloitte.

Walmart Marketplace is thriving: Black Friday and Cyber Monday were the two best-selling days on the platform, and those strong results are providing a boost to Walmart Fulfillment Services.

Cyber Monday will top $13 billion in US online sales, while Black Friday will crack $10 billion for the first time, according to our June 2023 forecast.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss the travel rebound and how tech is helping it out, how Black Friday football (with a side of online shopping) performed this year, will X (formerly Twitter) go bankrupt next year, a new way to stream NBA games post-cable, what to expect from ChatGPT next year, why your passport is the color it is, and more. Tune in to the discussion with our forecasting writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, forecasting analyst Zach Goldner, and director of forecasting Oscar Orozco.

Calendar context: With the invention of Prime Day, Amazon created an industrywide retail holiday consumers can now count on in the summer each year. Last year, Amazon also launched its Prime Early Access Sale in October. 鈥淲e now have three key tentpoles,鈥� said our analyst Andrew Lipsman on 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail,鈥� referring to Prime Day, the Prime Early Access Sale, and Black Friday. But spring remains untapped. 鈥淎 question I get is, 鈥業s Amazon going to do more of these?鈥� And I think the answer is yes, eventually,鈥� said Lipsman.

The pandemic put a damper on Black Friday doorbuster stampedes, and shoppers now look for more engaging experiences to bring them into stores. Activate holiday-themed pop-ups, limited-edition collaborations, and in-store services that complement retail offerings. Leverage the power of mobile connectivity.

North America retail sales grew 9.5% YoY, with record results during Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales events that contributed to a holiday season that Amazon called its 鈥渕ost successful yet.鈥�. Advertising revenues rose 18% YoY to $17.29 billion, slightly short of the $17.4 billion expected. Earnings per share of $1.86 were up 86% YoY, well ahead of the $1.49 expected.

Amazon had its most successful holiday season yet, bolstered by an extended Black Friday sales period and improved delivery speed. Amazon slightly exceeded our 2024 sales expectations by 30 basis points. As in Q3, ecommerce was again a bright spot for Target, Walmart, and Amazon as shoppers prioritized convenience, especially given the shorter holiday season.

GMV from third-party marketplaces during the Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend grew 44% YoY. GMV from travel increased 42% over the same period. Expanding beyond traditional retail categories is also paying off: Professional and legal services GMV surged 60% YoY. Affirm Card GMV jumped up 113% YoY. Affirm said redesigning its app to promote the card drove volume.

TikTok Shop鈥檚 over $100 million in US Black Friday sales was driven heavily by live commerce. Livestream sellers like Orca that are primarily focused on TikTok would need to pivot, while upstarts like Whatnot would make a big push for new merchants and shoppers. Social platforms, primarily Meta and YouTube, could also dive back into the live commerce space.

Retailers stand to benefit from generative AI 鈥渕oving beyond the hype cycle and demonstrating concrete successes,鈥� Deloitte writes, noting that retailers that offered genAI tools like chatbots during the Black Friday weekend had a 15% higher conversion rate than other merchants.

Retail ended 2024 on a high note as mobile shopping drove ecommerce sales and stores staged a comeback. Will the 2025 holiday season be as fruitful?

Shoppers snapped up items like TVs, headphones, and even tires ahead of Black Friday sales. Amazon is also bullish about its holiday prospects: The company projects Q4 sales growth between 7% and 11% YoY; our forecast expects its US holiday ecommerce sales alone to grow 9.1% YoY to $112.23 billion.

When we last checked in on this season, Black Friday had just happened. Holiday spend was relatively healthy. And we were eyeing a very short and very funky December holiday season. (01:13):. Now it's January. I still haven't made my returns of the thing I bought that didn't fit me on Black Friday, and it's probably too late now.

Both Temu and Shein grew sales by double digits on Black Friday and notched growth on Cyber Monday, per Facteus data cited by Reuters. Temu generated $53.3 million in revenues on Black Friday and $55.1 million on Cyber Monday; Shein鈥檚 sales reached $34.2 million and $38.2 million on those respective days.

The Cyber Five became the Cyber Dozen as retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Best Buy rolled out Black Friday discounts well ahead of Thanksgiving weekend. Steep and widespread discounts propelled online sales up 14.6% YoY on Black Friday alone, per Mastercard SpendingPulse. As a result, nonstore sales鈥攚hich includes ecommerce鈥攇rew 1.8% MoM and 9.8% YoY in November.

Why it matters: TikTok is ramping up signups and Shop sales after a blockbuster Black Friday performance, which underscored the app鈥檚 influence among US consumers and its growing importance as an ecommerce destination. TikTok Shop generated $100 million in sales on Black Friday alone, three times what it saw in 2023.

While Black Friday was a major contributor to the November increase, mall visits in the period leading up to Thanksgiving were also up on a YoY basis鈥攍ikely the result of a lengthened promotional season from retailers looking to get a head start on holiday shopping.

US sales of luxury goods rose 14% YoY during Black Friday, per Signifyd, while the average price per item was 13% lower. More shoppers are avoiding brands鈥� flagship stores in favor of outlets or off-price retailers where they can score designer goods for a fraction of the original price. Our take: The luxury market is under pressure as consumers in the US and China cut spending.

These trends align with retail data showing footfall fell for the second consecutive month in November, weighed down by poor weather and a later-than-usual Black Friday. More challenges ahead: The UK retail landscape looks bleak. Consumers are grappling with a cooling job market and rising mortgage and energy costs.