蘑菇AV

US click-and-collect sales growth will slow slightly over the course of the next few years, per our forecast, as adoption levels off after an acceleration in 2020. Still, sales will increase by double-digit percentages both this year and next and reach $131.66 billion by 2026.

On today's episode, we discuss a part of digital ad spending that will overperform this year, why some countries will see a dip in online shopping, what will happen to time spent on social platforms, and more. Tune in to the discussion with our forecasting writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, analyst Zach Goldner, and director of forecasting Oscar Orozco.

In-store pickup will emerge as the clear preference for US click-and-collect buyers.

Mobile app install ad spending is on the rise, and more video content on social media means an increase in time spent on platforms. Plus, click and collect remains a popular option for grocery buyers. Our forecasters laid out some good news for advertisers.

Amazon is on track for its first-ever $100 billion holiday season, boosted by its unbeatable delivery speeds, while click and collect gives Walmart an omnichannel edge, and Temu draws in price-conscious consumers. Plus, TikTok and mobile apps help retailers connect with consumers and stand out among the competition.

As shoppers continue to embrace a mix of online and physical shopping, omnichannel retailers that reduce friction through services such as click and collect and returns in-store will continue to have the edge. Competition for share of wallet is intensifying.

As usage nears saturation, one of the biggest sources of new user growth will be young people, who are increasingly craving more personalized, and even online-to-offline, experiences within smaller communities. Social ad revenue growth is also slowing. We expect US social network ad spending growth, excluding YouTube, to decelerate to 13.6% YoY in 2025, down from 19.3% this year.

Ahold Delhaize USA ramped up omnichannel efforts by adding click-and-collect locations, expanding delivery windows, and partnering with DoorDash. These investments helped lift online sales 17.9% (constant basis) and net sales 1.8% but pressured margins. Grocers forecast harder times ahead.

Almost three-quarters (74.2%) of digital buyers in France will use click and collect in 2025, per our forecast. What influences purchase decisions? Price still dominates. Consumers in France consider price (46.3%) more than any other component when making an online purchase, per our survey with ESW. That鈥檚 particularly true for men (48.5%) and older age groups (49.1% for 65 and older).

And now a lot of shoppers, because they do a lot of research online before they buy, they want to know what's in stock. They really want that inventory transparency and visibility. In research that we've done before, this was one of the big features of online shopping that consumers want.

Nearly three-quarters of US consumers buy holiday gifts in person, per Bryj, and 35% use click-and-collect services, which often result in additional in-store purchases. In our June 2024 consumer survey conducted by Bizrate Insights, 59.3% of click-and-collect buyers reported making another purchase when they picked up their orders. Holiday ecommerce will grow at the fastest rate since 2021.

Online returns growth will outpace overall ecommerce growth through 2028, driving retailers to update their strategies and solutions to manage costs.

Click and collect is gaining momentum. Over two-thirds (69%) of UK shoppers are using click and collect, with 24.9% using it to get items quicker and 28.9% to save money on home delivery charges, per a March 2024 survey by Research Without Barriers and Clix Technologies. By 2027, we predict nearly 20% of all ecommerce orders will be fulfilled via click and collect.

As retail media expands from online to offline, brick-and-mortar locations are being reimagined as strategic touchpoints for brands to influence consumer behavior at pivotal decision-making moments with personalized in-store ads.

Key stat: Over 3 in 10 shoppers research online, but buy in-store, per 蘑菇AV and impact.com. Attribution is particularly difficult for these omnichannel buys, since it can be unclear to advertisers where consumers discovered and learned more about products.

Three of Canada鈥檚 biggest grocery conglomerates鈥擫oblaw, Empire, and Metro (and the other retail banners under their respective umbrellas)鈥攈ave aggressively introduced ecommerce solutions that include click and collect and home delivery (both direct and via third parties like Instacart). The auto and parts category ranks the lowest at just 5.0% of category sales.