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Cord-cutters who pivot to digital pay TV (which is a form of sub OTT) are far outnumbered by those who abandon pay TV entirely. Click here to view our full forecast for US traditional pay TV households or US digital pay TV households. Soaring subscription fees are debilitating both traditional and digital pay TV. Traditional pay TV has suffered years of decline thanks to unmanageable carriage fees.

Despite all the audience erosion due to cord-cutting, annual upfront linear TV CPM increases exceeded inflation for numerous years, according to Media Dynamics. That trend reversed over the past two years when advertisers became more aggressive in demanding price rollbacks, and upfront CPMs declined.

On today’s podcast episode, we discuss our ‘very specific, but highly unlikely’ predictions for 2025. What would happen to the social media world if OpenAI bought Snap, what if Starbucks launched a Stablecoin, and why some companies might still want to buy linear networks. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Vice Presidents of Content Suzy Davidkhanian and Paul Verna, and Principal Analyst Yory Wurmser. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.

This is tied to cord-cutting as well as YouTube’s availability and content diversity compared with traditional TV. Children under 12 spend an average of 1:48 a day with YouTube, according to Giraffe Insights and Precise TV. This is followed by video-on-demand (VOD) (1:46) and broadcast TV (1:35).

While modestly below analyst expectations, the platform’s continued growth—alongside a surge in TV viewership and podcast consumption—signals that marketers are leaning into premium digital video as cord-cutting continues, per our March forecast. Smaller platform Peacock is turning its business around.

Its Super Bowl broadcast is likely to draw significant attention from cord-cutters for its free digital access, giving Fox an opportunity to onboard new viewers during the most-watched event of the year.

Yeah, I mean cable TV is too expensive, so we've had cord cutting for years. Digital pay TV we thought maybe was going to be competitive. Now that's too expensive. These things are free, and they're just sitting there waiting for you, right? Everyone has a CTV. Zach Goldner (16:34):. No signups. Ethan Cramer-Flood (16:35):. No signups. It's just there for-. Zach Goldner (16:37):. No paywalls.

But what was interesting about that story is that even though you have been hearing about how cord cutters have been growing and growing and growing, and eventually we had to invent this new term, cord nevers, about people who they just skipped right over the part where you pay for cable TV and then eventually cancel, and how cord cutters and cord nevers collectively were growing and growing and people

Despite the prevalence of cord-cutters and cord-nevers, traditional TV remains the single most time-consuming media activity for the US adult population. The TV and CTV disconnect likely comes down to demographics and competition from other media. Younger consumers have abandoned TV much faster than older generations, and marketing dollars have followed them.

The increased ownership of smart TVs in Canada (now higher than 50% of internet users) and cord-cutting have driven CTV viewership up, especially among younger age groups. Digital video time spent is almost on par with TV. This includes CTV, plus videos viewed on desktop/laptop computers and smartphones (excluding social media).

Comcast gives details on its spinout of several NBCU cable networks: As Peacock takes center stage, legacy TV networks must adapt to stay relevant.

Continual cord-cutting is reducing linear TV ad spending, which in turn reduces upfront linear commitments. Upfront linear TV ad spending peaked in 2022 and the decline shows no signs of reversing. Upfront linear TV spending is declining in tandem with total linear TV ad spending. Between 2021 and 2024, US linear TV ad spending had a negative 3.5% CAGR.

With cable in decline, Comcast bets on hybrid strategy: Peacock revenue grows, but subscriber slowdown raises questions ahead of its NBA media rights rollout.

Cord-cutters, cord-nevers, and even those loyal to linear TV are all gravitating to CTV solutions. Click here to view our full forecast for US CTV households. There are many ways to access CTV, but some options are more popular than others. With their built-in CTV-ready capabilities, smart TVs are the most popular device for CTV users.

Cord-cutter households will outnumber traditional pay TV households this year, but some are still watching. In 2024, only 53.3 million US households will subscribe to a traditional pay TV service, while 54.8 million will qualify as cord-cutters. However, some of those cord-cutters have switched to digital pay TV, which means their TV experience has not changed very much.

The immense popularity of paid and ad-supported streaming services, like Netflix and YouTube, has accelerated cord-cutting trends and contributed to revenue losses for traditional media providers.

But due to continual cord-cutting, the best they can do this year is keep spending flat. In 2025, US linear TV ad spending will shrink by 13.3% YoY, similar to its 2023 decline (down 12.1% YoY). Political ad spending will have a bigger effect on linear TV ad outlays than the Summer Olympics will.

Discovery’s D2C business as cord-cutting continues to impact traditional TV revenues. We forecast that cord-cutters will surpass half the US population next year, reaching 58.3% of all US adults by 2028. CEO David Zaslav expressed confidence in exceeding the $1 billion in streaming profitability target by 2025, a positive signal for investors as streaming continues to evolve.

Cord-cutting has continued to climb, unraveling the traditional TV bundle and pressuring sports rights-holders to follow audiences to streaming. Now, at a time when media companies are pulling back on other content spending, they’re spending more on sports. The reasoning? Sports viewership is predictable—and produces a big return. More wins for advertisers.

That’s because political and live-event programming continue to drive cable revenues, distinguishing Fox from peers facing more significant cord-cutting pressures. Fox’s revamped ad sales structure sets the company up for increased revenue growth and should help it capitalize on cross-platform advertising opportunities through sports, Tubi, and news positions.