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Brand loyalty membership is rebounding in the UK as shoppers turn to loyalty programs for savings. Supermarkets are driving innovation, but there is space for brands and retailers of all sizes to boost revenues and forge stronger customer connections.

The challenge: Chocolate makers are feeling the squeeze as cocoa powder prices have jumped nearly 16% YoY due to a global shortage, per Bloomberg. Our take: Small price increases add up鈥攅specially in an environment where consumers are still scarred by the coronavirus-era wave of inflation. Today鈥檚 shoppers are hyperaware of price hikes and increasingly willing to switch brands, delay purchases, or trade down. That puts added pressure on retailers and manufacturers to either justify price increases through quality and innovation鈥攐r find new ways to absorb rising costs without compromising brand trust.

The news: Lululemon is suing Costco for selling dupes. In a lawsuit filed June 25, the athleisure brand accuses the wholesale giant of infringing on its design patents by selling knockoff sweatshirts, jackets, and other activewear. Lululemon seeks an immediate halt to sales of the disputed products and unspecified monetary damages. Our take: For nearly as long as there have been name brands, there have been knockoffs. But the rise of dupe culture on TikTok鈥攃ombined with increasingly cost-conscious consumers looking鈥攊s pushing more shoppers toward cheaper alternatives and more brands to the brink. It's become a growing headache for companies like Est茅e Lauder, which have struggled as buyers opt for low-priced lookalikes. Lululemon鈥檚 lawsuit marks a significant escalation in the brand鈥檚 efforts to protect its designs. If it succeeds, it could set a precedent鈥攁nd signal that the era of unchecked dupes may be nearing a turning point.

DoorDash is strengthening its media network through new ad products and the acquisition of tech company Symbiosys, aiming to help brands reach consumers both on and off its platform.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

The news: Despite lingering uncertainty from tariff wars, five of Canada鈥檚 Big Six Banks beat analyst expectations in Q3 2025, per Bloomberg. Our take: Strong Q3 results provide a critical opportunity for Canadian banks to proactively fortify their balance sheets against known future risks. While lower loan loss provisions signal a better credit environment, the lingering threat of rising unemployment means this may not last. Banks should use this period of outperformance to conservatively build reserves, tighten lending standards for higher-risk clients, and prioritize stability and risk management over short-term loan growth.

The news: Yum Brands Q2 earnings and revenues fell short of analysts鈥� expectations. Our take: Despite Yum Brands鈥� efforts to sharpen its value proposition, economic uncertainty still took a bite out of its performance. Consumers are thinking twice about where and when they eat out amid growing concerns over tariffs and a weakening labor market. That caution is hitting nearly every quick-service chain, from Chipotle to McDonald鈥檚, and Yum Brands isn鈥檛 immune.

High tariffs have become an unavoidable part of doing business in the US following the implementation of President Donald Trump鈥檚 sweeping reciprocal duties. Retailers are slowly becoming resigned to the fact that higher tariffs are here to stay鈥攆or now. But their ability to minimize business disruption is severely hampered by the fact that new tariffs can be imposed at any time, which could immediately turn any attempts to adjust sourcing into sunk costs. As e.l.f. Beauty CEO Tarang Amin told CNBC, 鈥淚t鈥檚 the uncertainty around the tariffs that make things more difficult.鈥�

Nearly two-thirds of US consumers (63%) believe businesses are taking advantage of the challenging economic climate to raise prices, according to a survey by The Harris Poll. Still, consumers shouldn鈥檛 be surprised by tariff surcharges at checkout. Businesses should avoid the urge to use tariffs as an excuse to pad their margins and instead aim to keep prices on popular items as steady as possible while clearly explaining unavoidable increases.

The Q2 performances of Amazon, Walmart, and Target illustrate the retailers鈥� diverging fortunes as shoppers reassess their spending priorities. While uncertainty is funneling more dollars toward Amazon and Walmart, customers are steering clear of Target鈥攄ue both to a lackluster assortment and frustration over its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) flip-flopping. Walmart and Amazon are pulling ahead as their relentless focus on value鈥攊n the form of speed, selection, and convenience鈥攎ake them the first stop for shoppers buying everything from essentials like groceries to discretionary items like beauty and apparel. That leaves Target鈥檚 new CEO, Michael Fiddelke, with the unenviable task of having to turn the retailer around just as tariffs threaten its bottom line and undermine its core discretionary business.

The US consumer is in good shape, according to the CEOs of Dick鈥檚 Sporting Goods and Urban Outfitters鈥攄espite a recent dip in confidence and tariff fears. Urban Outfitters鈥� and Dick鈥檚 Sporting Goods鈥� confidence in the health of the consumer shows that despite the strain of tariffs and uncertainty, shoppers remain willing to spend on products that they feel are worth the investment.

The forecasts: The holiday season may bring more gloom than cheer for retailers as consumers tighten spending amid economic uncertainty. Average per-person spend during the season is projected to fall 5.3% YoY to $1,552, PwC reports. That鈥檚 the first significant drop since the 2020 pandemic. Gen Z is leading the pullback, with their holiday budgets set to plunge 22.5% after soaring 37.4% in last year鈥檚 survey (their actual spending rose just 6%, per PwC鈥檚 card data). That reversal reflects the mounting pressure they face from a stagnant job market, rising fixed costs, and thin savings. One in 4 (25%) Gen Zers now say their finances are worse than a year ago, up from 17% in 2024. Tariffs may be amplifying the pullback. A July CivicScience survey found 54% of consumers under 30鈥攁long with 47% of all gift buyers鈥攑lan to buy fewer or cheaper gifts due to tariff concerns. While our forecast is somewhat brighter鈥攚e expect sales in November and December to grow 1.2% YoY鈥攅ven that would mark the weakest holiday sales gain since we began tracking the metric in 2009. Our take: Retailers should meet consumers where they are this holiday season by offering budget-friendly choices such as smaller sizes, bundles, and gift sets, while also using loyalty programs to push their best customers to spend.

The news: After a five-year hiatus, JPMorgan Chase will once again offer HELOC loans, per Banking Dive. Why this matters: HELOCs tend to be a more flexible type of loan and often don鈥檛 have minimum loan requirements, per Mortgage Note. In a period when many customers are in need of fast, flexible cash, HELOC loans can help banks deliver. Not all banks that offered HELOCs pre-pandemic have relaunched them. But they should consider it: Banking customers are likely to continue feeling uncertainty about the economy and their financial futures in the medium term, and financial institutions that offer easier cash access to homeowners will reap more profits and customer satisfaction.

The news: Klarna is seeking a valuation of up to $14 billion in its coming IPO, per filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The BNPL provider will list with the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol KLAR. The stock price at IPO is anticipated to be between $35 and $37 per share. Our take: Klarna is hoping its IPO can capture investors鈥� hunger for high-growth tech stocks after a period of uncertainty. Fueled by its partnerships and card launches, Klarna is setting itself up to challenge Affirm on US BNPL spend.

The summer boom for marketing interns was more of a thud: A report found that the number of ad industry internships has sharply declined since 2022.

The trend: US consumers are losing faith in most components of the healthcare system, including federal health agencies and their leaders, drugmakers, insurers, and hospitals. Our take: Marketers at healthcare and pharma organizations (including providers, insurers, public health agencies, and drugmakers) must develop strategies to rebuild trust and guide patients to reliable information during a time of great uncertainty. Vaccine makers should partner with trusted medical groups, local physicians, and pharmacists to develop educational materials with clinical data that counter vaccine hesitancy among consumers. Pharma companies and insurers should address consumer frustrations through open public dialogue and provide transparent explanations for controversial pricing decisions. Drugmakers should additionally monitor condition-specific forums and social platforms like Reddit, where consumers share treatment experiences, and use these spaces to offer cost-saving tools for pricey medications.

The news: Revolving consumer credit growth has been negative for two months, per Federal Reserve Board data. Annualized revolving credit growth declined 3.5% in May and 1% in June. A year ago, annualized revolving credit growth stood at 6.15% in May and -0.92% in June. Our take: In the face of uncertainty, consumers are wary of spending unless they feel incentivized to change their behavior, especially as tariff-related pressures increase.

US retail sales advanced in July as consumers took advantage of major sales events. However, signs are emerging that consumers are becoming more pessimistic as inflation expectations rise. With pressure from rising food prices, higher housing costs, and uncertainty about higher tariffs, consumers remain cost-conscious鈥攁nd are wary about what鈥檚 ahead. Still, it鈥檚 clear that they鈥檙e willing to spend when they see clear value, providing a roadmap for retailers to capture sales.

Clients can find the full version of this chart later in the report. This report can help you: develop commerce strategy and benchmark commerce performance (retailers and brands). Executive Summary. UK retail sales growth is steady, but the outlook is clouded by economic uncertainty.

Amazon shrugged off tariff concerns in its Q2 earnings report, after reporting growth ahead of expectations. But the retailer鈥檚 Q3 forecast was murky, suggesting that while consumer demand remains resilient, uncertainty from tariffs and trade policy鈥攁long with extensive investments in AI鈥攃ould weigh heavily on its bottom line. Amazon鈥檚 strong quarter and Q3 sales guidance help dispel some fears about the health of the consumer. But its decision to once again offer an unusually broad profit range for the next quarter shows considerable uncertainty about the impact the Trump administration鈥檚 trade policies will have on retailers鈥� costs.

Michael Kors owner Capri credited a sequential improvement in demand for its better-than-expected quarter and upgraded FY forecast. In an otherwise difficult quarter for luxury, Capri鈥檚 bullishness stands out. But it has a lot of work to do to revive its brands鈥攑articularly Michael Kors, which, following the sale of Versace, now accounts for nearly 70% of revenues.

Procter & Gamble is hedging its bets as it grapples with higher costs related to tariffs and 鈥渟tressed鈥� consumers. The CPG company expects organic growth between 0% and 4% this year鈥攁 notably wider range than it usually forecasts, underscoring the uncertainty it (along with the rest of the CPG and retail industries) faces. Uncertainty is the byword for this year. While consumer sentiment is recovering, financial pressures, particularly on low-income households, remain鈥攁nd are likely to intensify as tariffs boost inflation and the 鈥淏ig Beautiful Bill鈥� curbs buying power. Regardless of which way sentiment is headed, there is no question that tariffs are reshaping consumers鈥� purchasing decisions.

The news: United is hosting five days鈥� worth of exclusive deals for United Chase cardholders beginning August 4. Each day will have its own exclusive, time-sensitive international travel offer. Cardholders will have the chance to fly one way to a mystery location for only 30,000 miles (plus about $35 in taxes and fees). Our take: United, along with its competitors, are looking for ways to reverse slumping sales. Targeting international and premium products, while also strengthening its loyalty program, could be a sage way to turn things around.

Ralph Lauren posted higher-than-expected quarterly results and raised its full-year revenue outlook, though it warned that tariffs could pressure consumer spending in the second half. Amid economic uncertainty, Ralph Lauren鈥檚 performance highlights the resilience of brands that sit at the intersection of aspiration and accessibility. The company appears better positioned than some of its luxury peers to weather volatility. Its quarterly results offer a blueprint for its retail peers, showing the value of a diversified supply chain and brand equity over aggressive discounting and heavy dependence on a single market.