蘑菇AV

The news: Zip鈥檚 total transaction volume (TTV) spiked 30.3% YoY in fiscal 2025 (ended June 30, 2025), driven by momentum in its US business. Cash before taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBTDA) more than doubled YoY to AUD 170.3 million ($109.38 million), a 147% increase. Total transaction value hit AUD 13.1 billion ($8.42 billion). Transaction volume was up 22.1% YoY to 93 million. Net bad debts decreased YoY to 1.5% of TTV, down from 1.7% in FY24. Our take: Zip鈥檚 year-end results reflect the spending strength of US consumers. We forecast US total retail sales to hit $7.513.38 trillion for 2025. By comparison, Zip鈥檚 native Australia is only anticipated to crack $356.49 billion in total retail sales this year.

The news: Crypto exchange Gemini launched an XRP edition of the Gemini credit card in collaboration with Ripple, per a press release. Cardholders will receive XRP as a reward for everyday spend. Our take: We forecast the amount of US crypto payment users remains low, at 1.3% of the population. However, the share of people who use crypto at all is more than seven times as large鈥攕uggesting Gemini鈥檚 new card could attract a larger base than cards designed around using crypto at checkout.

The news: Western Union will acquire International Money Express (Intermex) in a deal with a total equity and enterprise value of $500 million, per a press release. Our take: Increasing its retail footprint in the US positions can help Western Union capture more remittance outflow from the US, which we forecast to hit $92.58 billion this year.

The news: The trade war between the US and the rest of the world is heating up again, thanks to President Donald Trump鈥檚 latest threats to boost universal tariffs and impose stiffer duties on Canada and Brazil. Our take: The newly announced duties鈥攕hould they come to pass鈥攚ill push the US into the heavy tariff scenario outlined in our tariff report. Based on our forecast, that would mean a 1% decline in retail sales this year, the first contraction since 2009, as rising prices force consumers to prioritize essentials.

Retail media is not just for retailers anymore. US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May 蘑菇AV forecast.

The majority (80.9%) of worldwide retail media ad spend will take place in China and the US this year, according to a March 2025 蘑菇AV forecast.

New tariffs will create ripple effects across retail鈥攁nd returns will be no exception. With US retail returns predicted to exceed $1 trillion this year, according to a December 2024 蘑菇AV forecast, the pressure is on retailers to adapt.

Ecommerce will account for nearly a quarter (24.5%) of US beauty retail sales by 2028, according to our October 2024 forecast.

Grocery is the second-largest ecommerce category we track, garnering $220.48 billion in 2025, according to our 鈥淯厂 Digital Grocery Forecast 2025鈥� report. Walmart is the top digital grocery retailer, capturing 31.6% of US grocery ecommerce sales in 2025, followed by Amazon (22.6%) and Kroger (8.6%).

Payment processing solutions from major US digital commerce platforms are maturing and capturing a greater share of their retail ecommerce sales. Here鈥檚 how five platforms are approaching the payment facilitator (payfac) model to catapult their growth.

Consumer spending for the 2025 back-to-school shopping season will slow for the second year in a row as growth aligns with full-year retail. Ecommerce and K-12-focused purchases will drive overall spending.

Nearly 70% of the US population has a Prime membership, per our forecast, limiting growth opportunities. Prior to Amazon鈥檚 announcement, we expected the number of Prime users to rise just 1.9% this year, down from 3% in 2024. Prime Day challenges: Lackluster growth ahead of this year鈥檚 Prime Day sale may have influenced the timing of the move.

Cutting back is easier said than done. 72% of consumers made an unplanned discretionary purchase in the past month鈥攅ven as 69% say they intend to cut back or maintain current levels of nonessential spending, per an Optimum Retailing consumer survey. Tried-and-true strategies like spotlighting limited-time deals, using eye-catching displays, and cross-merchandising essentials with related products continue to drive results鈥攅ven when shoppers say they鈥檙e cutting back.