There will be over 100 million social buyers in the US in 2024, according to our forecast. TikTok Shop, which launched in the US in September 2023, will be the single largest contributor to buyer and sales growth this year.
Our revised US resale forecast reflects a slowdown for the ecommerce-dominated market, as the cost of selling one-of-a-kind items online comes into focus.
60% of US retail professionals say charging customers for returns has resulted in an increase of adoption in their free return methods, while 54% say it has cut down on return rates, according to a September 2024 survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Happy Returns.
Although the Cyber Five will hit record ecommerce sales in the US this year at $41.43 billion, the retail event鈥檚 share of total retail ecommerce holiday season sales will continue to shrink, per our July 2024 forecast.
Amazon鈥檚 earnings follow a familiar pattern: The retailer expects solid sales growth as investments in convenience resonate with shoppers, but profits will be pressured as tariffs take their toll.
Consumer spending for the 2025 back-to-school shopping season will slow for the second year in a row as growth aligns with full-year retail. Ecommerce and K-12-focused purchases will drive overall spending.
Trump鈥檚 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US鈥攁long with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our USforecasts change?