蘑菇AV

For example, one international retailer he worked with pulled out of a New York City deal due to concerns about the US market. The exceptions: Even in a challenging environment, some retailers remain bullish on brick-and-mortar鈥攕ince physical stores still account for the vast majority of US retail sales (We forecast that 83.1% of total retail sales will happen in-store this year).

With consumers and companies alike pulling back, Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a 2025 US recession to 35%. We currently forecast US retail sales to grow 2.9% this year. But that outlook hinges on how鈥攁nd how quickly鈥攖he Trump administration鈥檚 tariff agenda takes shape. If fully implemented, we may revise projections downward to account for a likely drag on spending.

Several foreign carmakers saw US sales surge in March: But that momentum is likely to stall given the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and imported auto parts set to take effect by May 3.

Walmart鈥檚 total US retail sales reached $533.96 billion in 2023, growing 6.9% YoY, according to the National Retail Federation and Kantar.

Looking ahead: The cosmetics and beauty category is growing faster than retail overall鈥攚e expect sales will rise 5.5% YoY this year compared with overall US retail sales growth of 2.9%. However, financial pressures are beginning to curb that momentum. We鈥檝e revised our 2024 category forecast down to $99.57 billion from nearly $102 billion, reflecting weaker cosmetics and fragrance sales.

Deloitte expects retail sales to grow 3.1% this year: That鈥檚 slightly ahead of our 2.9% forecast, but those projections could go askew in several ways.

The pieces are in place for another strong year of retail sales growth鈥攚e expect US retail sales to grow 2.9% YoY this year. But the growing divide between upper-income and lower- and middle-income households remains a concern that will worsen if inflation accelerates further.

BNPL is still a small retail payments player. While 73% of US consumers said they鈥檇 heard of BNPL in 2022, just 5.8% said they鈥檇 used it at least once over a 30-day period. US BNPL value will hit $80.77 billion in 2024, per our forecast鈥攋ust 1.1% of total US retail sales.

US retail sales are falling back to Earth: After years of massive growth rates, we expect US retail sales to increase 2.9% this year.

US retail sales fell 0.6% in November: But spending on services like restaurants and travel continues to grow as shoppers prioritize experiences over physical goods.

Secondhand shopping is soaring: We expect resale volumes will grow more than twice as fast as total US retail sales through 2026.

US retail marketplace ecommerce sales will reach $603.20 billion in 2027, representing 34.8% of total retail ecommerce sales, per our forecast.

Despite these shifts, overall retail sales remained in line with our retail sales forecast, with total US retail sales for 2024 rising 2.8% year over year. Under normal conditions, we would expect retail sales to grow 2.9% YoY this year, as easing inflation and declining interest rates would support a gradual rebound in discretionary spending and big-ticket purchases.