蘑菇AV

Holiday spend, international transactions, and non-card payments boosted growth

鈥淯S President Donald Trump鈥檚 tariffs will reshape more than a trillion dollars in trade between the world鈥檚 largest economy and Latin America, with key partners like Mexico and Brazil at the center of the discussion,鈥� said our analyst Matteo Ceurvels. US-based brands selling in Latin America may see a significant competitive disadvantage compared to companies from countries.

Big brands are reconsidering TikTok Shop. It鈥檚 an experimental feature that many don鈥檛 consider to be worth the investment right now. That likely won鈥檛 impact larger creator campaigns on TikTok. But it will contribute to a slowdown in growth in creator affiliate marketing spending, which ballooned in 2023鈥�2024 thanks largely to TikTok Shop Affiliate. Some of these shifts were already in motion.

Turbulence in trade relations is changing how China鈥檚 ecommerce platforms do business in the US, with spillover effects on US retail and advertising.

Its Old Navy label gained share with lower-income shoppers in Q4, while Gap won over middle- and high-income consumers.

Washington will have an outsized influence on what consumers eat this year: A new surgeon general鈥檚 warning, growing trade wars, and a crackdown on processed food could shift consumption patterns.

The wild economic fluctuations of the pandemic era are receding. Last year reintroduced an air of relative predictability, and the forecast for 2024 and beyond shows smooth sailing. For the next two years, retail sales will grow 4% to 5%, and ecommerce more than 8%.

Worldwide ecommerce growth will slow gradually over the next three years, according to our Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2024 report. In the markets we track, Latin America will have the fastest ecommerce growth rate at 15.8% this year, while Western Europe will have the slowest at 6.4%.