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Record holiday sales helped retailers, but purchasing patterns across income groups diverged starkly. Middle- and lower-income consumers grew more selective, carefully weighing where and when to spend amid economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, higher-income shoppers continued to spend freely.

From 2024 to 2026, FMN ad spend will grow at a breakneck 106.3% compound annual growth rate, per our forecast. While that will account for only 0.4% of US digital ad spending in 2026, this growth reflects FIs鈥� eagerness to monetize their first-party data. Click here to view our full forecast for US FMN ad spending. Ad revenues are looking increasingly attractive for FIs:.

For the second half of 2023, US retail media ad spending will reach $46.38 billion, per Insider Intelligence鈥檚 forecast. Meanwhile, connected TV (CTV) ad spending will also post growth of 20.0%. In response, marketers in 2024 will create dedicated retail and media strategies to leverage retail data sets in CTV.

In part due to this earnings season, we took our 2024 US search ad spending forecast from 11.1% to 14.5% growth as AI-integrated search rolled out faster than expected. Our 2024 US retail media forecast dropped from 26% to 20.4% due to total growth overexpectations from channel leaders.

In March, Meta rolled out new carousel ads that drive both ecommerce and in-store purchases, with early tests showing a 21% higher incremental return on ad spend compared to ecommerce-only formats, Meta鈥檚 group lead for retail and ecommerce Karin Tracy told Adweek. Why it matters: Meta is chasing retail media, a fast-growing category with US spending projected to rise 18% in 2025 and 16.8% in 2026.

The quote: 鈥淚n-store is the next frontier for 耻蝉,鈥� Bobby Watts, Ahold Delhaize senior vice president of retail media, told Adweek. There鈥檚 good reason for Watts鈥� enthusiasm about the opportunity: The vast majority (87%) of US grocery sales will occur offline this year, per our forecast.

Go further: Read our reports on US Luxury Consumers and Their Path to Purchase and Luxury Ecommerce.

Cross-border ecommerce continues to rise in popularity among US consumers, even as growth in the number of buyers slows. In 2023, the US will rank second globally in total cross-border buyers, with 69.8 million, per our forecast. It will trail far behind China鈥檚 280.0 million, but that鈥檚 because of relative population sizes.

New tariffs and policy uncertainty are raising prices, stalling guidance, and pushing shoppers toward discount channels, especially in ecommerce and essential goods. Tech companies face rising regulatory and tariff pressure.

Amazon will pull in over 80% of US retail media search dollars this year, per our forecast. But Walmart will continue growing its share of non-Amazon retail media search ad spending over the next two years.

Advertisers will increase their spend on US retail media search ads every year of our forecast period in 2028, when it will see its most growth at 23.4% YoY, according to our March 2024 forecast.

Why it matters: We forecast US off-site retail media ad spend will grow 42.1% this year to $13.06 billion. This growth is driven by advertisers鈥� desire for more full-funnel campaigns that build awareness and drive conversions. 2. Hy-Vee adds audience targeting, promotes retail media leader.

Deloitte expects holiday sales to grow 2.3% to 3.3% this year: That鈥檚 well short of our forecast, which projects 4.8% growth. Both reflect the complicated environment ahead.

Despite US WhatsApp penetration hovering around 20% of the population through 2028, per our forecast, the platform boasts deep loyalty among key consumer segments:. Penetration peaks at 36.1% among US adults ages 35鈥�44, with strong numbers across other working-age groups.

US omnichannel retail media ad spend will hit $129.93 billion in 2028, according to our forecast, up from $54.85 billion this year.

Looking ahead: Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Domino鈥檚 remains optimistic, forecasting 3% growth in US comparable sales for the full year. Even as delivery slows, Domino鈥檚 sees major growth potential through third-party aggregators.

Marketplaces will continue to expand their share of US retail ecommerce as new players with roots in China vie for prominence.

Almost 7 in 10 people in the US are CTV viewers, per our forecast. 蘑菇AV the same amount of people are Prime subscribers, our forecast shows. But CTV advertising has not caught up with the massive amount of time people are spending with streamers. Netflix, Disney+, Max, Tubi, and Paramount all have a time spent share that exceeds ad revenues.

US retail sales soar past our prepandemic forecast: 2024 sales will be 18% higher than we thought in February 2020 as consumers鈥� resilience shows no signs of slowing.

The number of mobile peer-to-peer (P2P) payment users in the US is growing, reaching nearly three quarters (74.4%) of US smartphone users by 2028, per our forecast.

Google accounts for the highest share of US search ad revenues (52.0%), followed by Amazon (22.1%), per our forecast. Though ChatGPT does not yet serve ads, it鈥檚 influencing how marketers think about SEO. Key stat: Despite ChatGPT鈥檚 rise, Google is still the king of search. Google processes more than 5 trillion searches per year, according to the giant.

US alcohol off-premises retail ecommerce sales will reach $6.85 billion this year, growing 6.1% over 2022, according to our forecast. Growth will reach double digits come 2026.

After a slight dip in 2022, US retail ecommerce sales growth will accelerate each year through 2027, according to our forecast. By that point, ecommerce sales will reach $1.736 trillion and make up one-fifth of total retail sales.