蘑菇AV

蘑菇AV 4 in 10 US consumers now qualify as value-seekers鈥攅xhibiting at least three deal-driven, cost-conscious, or convenience-compromising behaviors each month across categories like grocery, retail, dining, travel, and automotive. Value seekers span all age groups and income levels. For example, nearly 3 in 10 value seekers are part of young families with six-figure median incomes. The details:.

Ecommerce share varies greatly across categories. The average ecommerce penetration across US retail sales of 16.7% masks wide disparities: Rates range from as high as 70.1% for books, music, & video to just 5.9% for auto & parts.

US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May 蘑菇AV forecast.

The situation: A cloud of uncertainty has hung over the US economy since the Trump administration鈥檚 April 9 pause of so-called reciprocal tariffs. That鈥檚 made it difficult for retailers and brands to plan for the short and medium term. The outlook is now poised to grow even murkier. President Donald Trump extended the pause period鈥攐riginally set to expire on Wednesday鈥攗ntil August 1. At the same time, he announced new 25% tariffs on imports from South Korea and Japan, also taking effect August 1, along with steep additional levies on other countries. Our take: With companies planning to pass on about 70% of the cost of levies to consumers via higher prices, it鈥檚 no surprise that we expect tariffs to take a meaningful bite out of retail sales this year鈥攚hether we remain in the moderate scenario or shift into a heavier one. In such a dynamic environment, retailers and brands should rely on scenario modeling that accounts for a range of possible futures. They can hope for the best but plan for the worst to ensure they鈥檙e ready to adapt to whatever twists lie ahead.

The situation: A perfect storm of consumer pullbacks, rising prices from new tariffs, and the suspension of the de minimis tax exemption will drag US ecommerce sales growth this year to its weakest pace since the Great Recession in 2009. We expect US online sales to grow just 5.0% this year in our moderate tariff scenario, which reflects the current policy landscape. That鈥檚 a 3-percentage-point drop from last year. Looking ahead: We expect ecommerce growth to experience a modest rebound to 5.3% growth in 2026. But more headwinds are on the horizon. The tax-and-spending package known as the 鈥淥ne Big Beautiful Bill鈥� will close the de minimis loophole that lets most packages under $800 enter duty-free from countries outside China and Hong Kong. While that will eliminate the possibility of some workarounds, it could also reshape the economics of cross-border ecommerce鈥攁nd place even more strain on platforms, suppliers, and price-sensitive consumers alike.

The insight: The US is mired in the 鈥渨orst housing market in almost 50 years,鈥� RH CEO Gary Friedman said during the company鈥檚 Q1 earnings call, as high housing costs and economic uncertainty chill demand. Our take: With the sluggish housing market showing few signs of improvement, retailers must lean into any pockets of opportunity they find. For RH, that鈥檚 burnishing its luxury credentials and pushing deeper into hospitality, while Wayfair is leaning on its diverse supplier base. The resilient pro market is another area companies should look to take advantage of as they try to ride out the downturn.

The news: Temu鈥檚 foothold in the US is shrinking as the company pulls back sharply on advertising. Weekly sales slumped more than 25% YoY between May 11 and June 8, according to Bloomberg Second Measure. Our take: Given the importance of the US market to Temu and its merchants, it鈥檚 possible that its current pause on US ad spending and shift to Europe is a temporary effort to regroup as it searches for a business model more resistant to tariffs and the end of de minimis. At the same time, the longer the pause goes on, the more ground it will cede to Shein and other competitors鈥攁nd the harder it will be to regain market share.

The news: China鈥檚 coffee giants are making their way to the US in the hopes of unlocking a lucrative market to offset pressures back home. Our take: Luckin鈥檚 and Cotti鈥檚 US launches are a problem for Starbucks, which is already struggling to compete with the companies in China and having a hard time winning over customers at home. Unfortunately for Starbucks, many of the moves it鈥檚 making鈥攕treamlining its menu, enhancing the in-store experience, leaning into premiumization鈥攔un counter to consumers鈥� current desire for variety, convenience, and value. That has created an opening for chains like Dutch Bros (and now Luckin and Cotti), which are better positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in the coffee space and can undercut Starbucks on price.

Consumer spending remains highly uncertain and dependent on incentives like subsidies or discounts鈥攅ven as businesses operate on razor-thin margins that are under further pressure due to US tariffs.

We expect Amazon鈥檚 US ecommerce revenues during Prime Day to jump 52.7% YoY to $12.93 billion. However, that growth is spread across a four-day window, compared with just two days last year, which naturally dilutes the per-day lift. In other words, sales will soar鈥攂ut they won鈥檛 double. We project $3.23 billion in US revenues per day during this year鈥檚 sale鈥攄own 23% from $4.23 billion per day in 2024.

The trend: A growing parade of retailers are front-loading July promotions to capture sales before the start of Amazon鈥檚 Prime Day event, which will run from July 8 at 12:01am PDT through July 11. Our take: There's a good reason that more retailers are joining Walmart and Target in attempting to get a head start on Prime Day. Amazon typically garners an outsized share of sales during its marquee event; we expect Amazon will account for 75% of US ecommerce sales during Prime Day this year.

TSA data shows that the number of travelers passing through US airports over the past 90 days is down YoY鈥攖he first such decline since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, per the Financial Times. Spending data reinforces the trend.

The news: The UK economy contracted by the most in 18 months in April due to the twin pressures of tariffs and tax increases. Our take: The UK economy鈥檚 contraction in April sets the stage for another year of tepid growth. Despite a highly publicized (and yet to be finalized) trade deal with the US, macroeconomic uncertainties are set to weigh heavily on corporate and consumer sentiment, while rising household and business expenses will limit investment and consumer spending.

The news: TikTok commerce traffic has trended down throughout 2025 amid uncertainty about the app鈥檚 future in the US. Our take: Trump鈥檚 extension gives TikTok more time to reach a deal but does little to ease the internal disruption from ByteDance鈥檚 austerity drive. New tariffs and the elimination of the de minimis exemption could hinder TikTok Shop鈥檚 performance.

The situation: Despite persistent US-China trade tensions, the Chinese economy is proving more resilient than many expected. Our take: China is navigating a high-stakes global environment more deftly than expected鈥攁 promising sign for Chinese retailers. Stronger-than-anticipated export growth, solid GDP performance, and growing trade diversification point to a more stable macroeconomic backdrop. That creates an opportunity for Chinese retailers and manufacturers to tap into rising domestic demand while expanding into alternative export markets. If this momentum holds鈥攁 big if鈥攖hey could potentially outpace the 2.0% YoY retail sales growth that we currently forecast.

The trend: US consumers are pulling back on summer vacations. 鈥嬧�婽he average trip budget has dropped 25.4% YoY to $3,132, per an Ipsos survey for Generali Global Assistance. Our take: The pullback in travel spending is a canary in the coal mine. As economic anxiety deepens, more consumers will likely pull back further, scrutinize discretionary purchases, and double down on value. Retailers, brands, and travel companies should brace for a more cautious consumer in the second half of the year. To stay competitive, they should look for opportunities to: Sharpen their value messaging to align with price-sensitive mindsets; Stay closely attuned to shifting consumer sentiment through ongoing survey and trend analysis; Position themselves as allies in financial wellness, offering not just products, but practical ways to help consumers stretch their dollars further.

The news: The European Commission said it would abandon efforts to pass a law against corporate greenwashing, citing a 鈥渟implification agenda鈥� to remove red tape and make the EU more attractive for business. Our take: Many companies will take the easing of environmental oversight in the US and the EU as an excuse to water down their sustainability initiatives. That could lower costs in the short term鈥攂ut at the risk of alienating the large swath of consumers who factor sustainability into their purchase decisions and are quick to identify greenwashing.

The news: US inflation ticked up 0.1% last month and 2.4% YoY, a softer read than many economists expected but one that kept the pressure on consumers already dealing with a higher cost of living. Our take: Retailers, especially grocers and discounters, can set themselves apart by helping consumers save money and be more financially responsible. Offering digital coupons, using in-store signage spotlighting sales on daily essentials, and rewarding loyal shoppers for repeat purchases can foster smarter spending.

The milestone: Amazon recently deployed its 1 millionth robot in its fulfillment centers鈥攁 figure approaching the number of human workers at those facilities. Our take: Automation is a central element within Amazon鈥檚 relentless push to narrow the gap between click and doorstep. Fast delivery isn鈥檛 just about convenience; it transforms how consumers shop. The faster Amazon gets everyday essentials like toothpaste into customers鈥� hands鈥攅specially with free delivery for Prime members鈥攖he harder it becomes for other retailers to compete. That gives Amazon a durable edge as it looks to expand its share of US ecommerce sales.

The insight: Prime Day got off to a strong start, according to Adobe data, despite alternative reports of a dip in spending. Our take: The early Prime Day enthusiasm is an encouraging sign for Amazon, which is counting on the event to not only boost sales but also unlock additional ad revenues. It could also be a good sign for retailers running competing sales. While we ultimately expect the longer sales period to benefit the ecommerce giant, shoppers鈥� growing awareness of other events鈥攁nd propensity to comparison-shop鈥攃ould help retailers like Walmart and Target grow their share of an increasingly lucrative shopping period.

Home Depot made a bid for GMS, a building products and tool supplier for both consumers and contractors, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Home Depot sees a significant opportunity to consolidate the fragmented construction supply and tool market鈥攁nd it's moving at a moment when the US housing shortfall could drive sustained demand for new construction and renovation.

The entire US EV market鈥攁nd the broader auto industry鈥攆ace mounting headwinds. A limited market: Many consumers pulled forward their vehicle purchases in late 2024 and early 2025, anticipating price hikes from looming tariffs. That demand surge has left automakers and dealers with a thinner pool of potential buyers this quarter.

The insight: The vast majority鈥�80%鈥攐f automakers鈥� $30 billion tariff costs next year will be passed along to the consumer, according to a report by AlixPartners. The consulting firm expects car prices to rise by $1,760 on average鈥攚hich will slash US auto sales by 1 million over the next three years. Our take: Cars are an essential expense for a majority of Americans. But as the cost of ownership (including insurance, maintenance, and gas) rises, more consumers will be forced to cut spending in other areas. Those pressures could be particularly acute for households that rushed to buy vehicles before tariffs kicked in and are now struggling with higher monthly payments they hadn鈥檛 fully planned for.