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On today's episode, we discuss which video streaming platforms marketers will spend most of their ad dollars on, how the different card network players stack up against each other, and where most folks prefer to return items. "In Other News," we talk about our expectations for out-of-home and programmatic advertising in 2023. Tune in to the discussion with our directors of forecasting Peter Newman and Oscar Orozco.

But the most successful creator brands sell in multiple channels, including ecommerce platforms, owned websites and apps, and in stores. Our forecast includes only sales that originate or take place on social media. Making real money from merchandising is a long shot for most creators. For one, anything beyond a mug or a T-shirt will generally require access to capital.

China鈥檚 example would suggest that retail media has enormous headroom for growth in the US. Companies like Amazon have been growing their ad revenues by leaps and bounds, and yet ecommerce channel ad spending will still only represent 14.6% of the US digital ad market this year. In China, the share will be 38.1%.

The pandemic鈥檚 mini ecommerce boom helped supercharge retail media, but the category is now experiencing more measured growth. However, advancements in in-store and off-channel retail media (via CTV, for example) will help the category retain its importance. Click here to view the full forecasts for retail media, CTV, and mobile ad spending. Retail media is digital advertising鈥檚 new poster child.

Temu and Shein鈥檚 ad bidding war drove spending away from search: CPCs spiked after the two retailers claimed in-demand search ad space.

The retail industry commits by far the most dollars to digital advertising in the US. It has accelerated ad spending with above-average growth every year since 2020, fueled by the rising importance of ecommerce and digital channels in the consumer journey. By comparison, online ad spending by most other industries we track has seen far greater fluctuations from year to year over the same period. Retail鈥檚 ad spending growth will see sustained growth this year and next before other industries start to catch up on spending in 2025.

US digital media consumption and consumer spending growth are at a standstill. 鈥淚t's just getting really competitive to reach today's consumers,鈥� our analyst Jeremy Goldman said on an episode of the 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Daily鈥� podcast. Here鈥檚 what advertisers need to know about the latest trends in digital, including fierce competition for ad dollars to ecommerce having room to grow.

Since then, growth in ad spending on video formats across social media and connected TV has taken off. Display ad spending growth will continue to slightly outpace that of search over the next few years. But retail media throws most of its weight behind search. Retail media is the fastest-growing ad channel we track.

Discovery (WBD)鈥檚 new 鈥沦丑辞辫 with Max鈥� ad solution uses AI to identify items within films and TV shows and find similar products in an advertisers鈥� catalog. Viewers can navigate to those products by scanning a QR code, allowing them to shop without interrupting the viewing experience.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss whether this is the beginning of Amazon's decline, if the Internet is becoming more ad-free, whether shopping pairs well with streaming, where brands will shift their ad dollars during the Super Bowl as they lean away from X (formerly Twitter), ChatGPT creator OpenAI's deal with publishing giant Axel Springer, the most visited tourist attractions in the world, and more. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Blake Droesch and vice presidents of content Suzy Davidkhanian and Paul Verna.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss how affiliate is helping marketers take back control of their ad spend. "In Other News," we talk about Amazon unveiling a smarter, more conversational, Alexa and TikTok Shop hitting the US. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Max Willens and Alexandra Forsch, president of Awin Americas.

Commerce media is becoming more competitive as retailers and non-retailers continue to build out their networks and advertisers prioritize measurement for proven results. Looking ahead to 2025, cross-industry partnerships will grow and in-store media will enable retailers to merge online behaviors with in-person shopping.

Consumers may be concerned about the economy, but the outlook is good for ad spend in the final months of 2024. The share of advertisers concerned about a slowing US economy dropped 11 percentage points (from 49% to 38%) between November 2023 and August 2024, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). Retail media鈥檚 popularity, an influx of value-based messaging, high political ad spend, and connected TV (CTV) monetization will boost the ad industry the rest of 2024.

Three years ago, traditional media accounted for the majority of ad spending. The balance tipped in 2022, and digital spending will completely overshadow traditional by 2026. Retail media is the biggest driver of digital. During the economic downturn, ad spending was drawn down the funnel, with retail media being the biggest beneficiary.

Spend from current retail media network (RMN) advertisers is showing signs of cooling, forcing RMNs to look to non-endemic advertisers outside their existing ad networks for new ad dollars.

Politics will buoy linear TV ad spending this year, but allocations will continue to shift toward streaming options that keep gaining ad-supported viewers.

Generative AI tools are transforming retail media by personalizing shopper experiences, with retailers like Instacart introducing aisle-aware ads and location-based coupons. In-store retail media is growing rapidly, with players like CVS and 7-Eleven using digital screens and audio ads near points of purchase, despite infrastructure challenges.

Macy鈥檚 had a mixed Q3: Sales at its luxury Bloomingdale鈥檚 and Bluemercury labels rose, but its namesake brand is struggling to attract shoppers

48% of US retail business decision-makers say video ads drive the biggest return on ad spend (ROAS) on Amazon, according to March 2024 data by Zogby Analytics and Feedvisor.

US social media ad spending will ride the momentum platforms built in H2 2023 thanks to AI, social video advertising growth, and a fixation on bottom-funnel outcomes.