蘑菇AV

As its main US competitor Klarna attempts to be an 鈥渆verything app,鈥� with side forays into the mobile phone plans, Affirm can gain ground by concentrating on the fundamentals of its business: We forecast that Affirm will control 30.6% of BNPL payment penetration for the US market this year, leading Klarna at 26.6%.

Offering BNPL at checkout can make its buy button more attractive to the 91.5 million US users we forecast will pay with BNPL this year. And Afterpay will gain access to Cash App鈥檚 57 million active users, which can help the BNPL provider circumvent an industrywide user growth slowdown. Our take: Block is trying to tie its various brands more closely to Cash App.

The retailer will account for nearly one-third of ecommerce sales in the apparel, footwear, and accessories category this year, per our forecast, while roughly three-quarters of US households are Prime users. That makes Amazon an invaluable selling partner for any brand鈥攁nd especially for Nike, which is struggling to emerge from a prolonged slump.

US retail marketplace ecommerce sales will reach $603.20 billion in 2027, representing 34.8% of total retail ecommerce sales, per our forecast.

The news: Nearly half of US and UK consumers admit to abusing retailers鈥� returns policies in the past 12 months, according to a survey conducted by The Harris Poll. Our take: Retailers face a Catch-22 when it comes to returns. Being too generous opens the door for fraud and can result in retailers being overburdened by reverse logistics costs. But being too restrictive can deter shoppers from opening their wallets.

Amazon will pull in over 80% of US retail media search dollars this year, per our forecast. But Walmart will continue growing its share of non-Amazon retail media search ad spending over the next two years.

The stablecoin giant is exploring plans to launch a US-specific token and POS solution

US retail sales soar past our prepandemic forecast: 2024 sales will be 18% higher than we thought in February 2020 as consumers鈥� resilience shows no signs of slowing.

Amazon is the biggest retail media network in the US, accounting for three-quarters of retail media revenue share, per our forecast. But its limited grocery footprint leaves an opportunity for competition. Here are recent updates in grocery retail media, and a prediction on the future of in-store retail media.

Retail media just got even bigger. We recently updated our US retail media ad spend forecast to show higher growth than previously estimated, culminating in $109.40 billion in spend in 2027.

Retail media has matured greatly since our 5 retail media networks (RMNs) worth watching. That evolution has come from growth in spend (we forecast US omnichannel retail media ad spend growth at 26.0% this year, with larger increases in off-site and connected TV), in-store innovations, and new entrants from other non-retailers.

Advertisers will increase their spend on US retail media search ads every year of our forecast period in 2028, when it will see its most growth at 23.4% YoY, according to our March 2024 forecast.

The BNPL provider has made strong inroads in the US but faces steep obstacles in growing its market share

In 2024, US consumer spending on online marketplaces will reach $468.33 billion, according to our forecast, with a significant portion of ecommerce sales shifting to these platforms.

BNPL is still a small retail payments player. While 73% of US consumers said they鈥檇 heard of BNPL in 2022, just 5.8% said they鈥檇 used it at least once over a 30-day period. US BNPL value will hit $80.77 billion in 2024, per our forecast鈥攋ust 1.1% of total US retail sales.

TikTok is going all-in on in-app purchases; Meta is focused on shoppable ads; and YouTube hopes to gain a competitive advantage through its strong creator relationships. All of this is happening as we forecast US retail social commerce sales will grow nearly 30% this year to hit $68.92 billion

Mcommerce will account for almost half (49.8%) of US ecommerce sales by 2027, according to our forecast.

Nearly three-quarters (74.2%) of the $59.61 billion in US digital retail media ad spend we forecast for 2024 will go to Amazon. That leaves $15.35 billion going to non-Amazon retailers and $370 million going to in-store formats.That should excite marketers, said 蘑菇AV鈥檚 new principal analyst Sarah Marzano.

Amazon鈥檚 2023 Prime Day events brought in a combined $13.88 billion in US ecommerce sales last year, according to our forecast. But as consumers remain cautious with their spending, Amazon is looking to boost sales outside of the July and October tentpole events.

Amazon is projected to take the lion鈥檚 share of US holiday season retail ecommerce sales this year, beating out its closest competitor, Walmart, by over $80 billion, according to our June 2023 forecast.

The number of mobile peer-to-peer (P2P) payment users in the US is growing, reaching nearly three quarters (74.4%) of US smartphone users by 2028, per our forecast.

The majority (83.7%) of US retail sales take place in physical stores, per our forecast. The retailers that can infuse digitally forward strategies into their in-store experiences are more likely to win over consumer dollars. Here are five charts on why the in-store experience is so key to retailers鈥� success and how they can use technology to create a more seamless, engaging shopping experience.

Amazon will account for 40.4% of US retail ecommerce sales or a total of $491.65 billion this year, according to our February 2024 forecast.

Cyber Monday will top $13 billion in US online sales, while Black Friday will crack $10 billion for the first time, according to our June 2023 forecast.