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US affiliate marketing spend鈥檚 double-digit growth will continue through 2026, when it will hit $13.20 billion, per our August 2025 forecast. Affiliate marketing spend has risen with retail ecommerce sales. Its growth is outpacing US retail ecommerce sales growth, though ecommerce has less room to grow, having reached 16.1% penetration of total retail sales. 2.

US ecommerce growth will come from large retail categories with historically low online sales share. And growth will stay healthy even as traditional drivers of online sales take a backseat to emerging categories.

On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we discuss the takeaways from Netflix鈥檚 record-breaking boxing event, the chances of TikTok dodging a US ban under a Trump presidency, the future of 鈥渞oadblock marketing鈥�, Perplexity鈥檚 new feature that lets you buy things directly within its search engine, the true story that inspired the 1992 film 鈥淎 League Of Their Own鈥�, and more. Tune in to the discussion with Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Director of Reports Editing Rahul Chadha, Senior Analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf, and Senior Director of Forecasting Oscar Orozco.

Alibaba鈥檚 retail ecommerce sales in China were nearly twice that of Amazon鈥檚 worldwide in 2022, at $1.229 trillion compared with about $657 billion, per our estimates. Latin American competitor Mercado Libre had significantly less ecommerce sales, at nearly $35 billion.

As Latin America鈥檚 digital revolution marches on, advertisers and retailers must keep pace with how and where consumers are spending their time鈥攁nd money鈥攊f they wish to maintain a competitive edge in today鈥檚 rapidly evolving business environment.

Its US ecommerce sales grew 11.7% in 2023, 3.6 percentage points higher than the total US ecommerce sales. This marked the first year since 2019 that Amazon significantly outperformed the market. But competitors still threaten Amazon鈥檚 ability to gain market share.

The US will deliver the majority of July Prime Day ecommerce sales. We forecast Amazon鈥檚 US Prime Day sales will rise 10.0% YoY to $8.03 billion in 2023, nearly doubling the international total and accounting for 62.1% of Prime Day sales worldwide. But non-US markets will gain share.

Our take: We expect US digital travel sales to grow 8.5% YoY this year, which reflects the growing disconnect between consumer sentiment and consumer spending patterns. Even as sentiment remains well below historic norms, consumers are willing to spend on travel this holiday season. Go further: Read our Infopack: Travel 2024.

We expect Cyber Five retail ecommerce sales to grow 5.6% this year: A strong US economy bodes well for that crucial stretch, as well as the broader holiday season.

Walmart hopes that tactic will enable it to draw a larger share of consumers鈥� wallets as well as keep Amazon from dethroning it as the 鲍厂鈥� top retailer. We expect Walmart.com鈥檚 US ecommerce sales to grow 13.8% this year鈥攆aster than Amazon鈥檚 10.5% growth, although its market share will be roughly one-sixth the size of the latter鈥檚.

Assuming TikTok dodges a US ban, its efforts to improve the shopping experience on its platform will position it to convert more users into buyers. It鈥檚 already building on a solid foundation; TikTok Shop sales rose 213.2% YoY for the first two weeks of November, per Earnest Analytics.

97% of US TikTok shoppers also shopped at Amazon in the past five months, according to February 2024 data from Earnest Analytics.

US gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 13.6% YoY, a stark contrast to LVMH鈥檚 stagnation during the same quarter. How we got here: Mytheresa has bucked slowing demand by focusing on the top tier of luxury consumers whose affluence insulates them from economic uncertainty and price hikes.

Go further: Read our US Holiday Shopping 2024 report.

Over 70% of US digital retailers believe AI-driven personalization and genAI will affect their business in 2024, per a December 2023 survey by Bolt. And about the same percentage (71%) of US retail and brand decision-makers have already invested in data/AI-enabled content for personalization, per an August 2023 survey by Coresight Research. GenAI is a game changer.

Here鈥檚 how it works: US-based Pro members can click a 鈥淏uy with Pro鈥� button in search results to place an order using saved shipping and billing information. (Perplexity will redirect users to a merchant鈥檚 website to complete their purchase if Buy with Pro isn鈥檛 available.). Items bought via Buy with Pro receive free shipping.

The 15 biggest US ecommerce players aren鈥檛 a surprise (here鈥檚 looking at you, Amazon, Walmart, and Apple). User-friendly mobile apps, quick delivery, innovation, and converting sales are what turn retailers into ecommerce powerhouses. Here are the companies our analysts believe best exemplify those features within the 15 largest ecommerce players.

Historically, apparel and accessories and computer and consumer electronics were the most dominate categories in ecommerce sales. They will remain significant sales drivers, but in the future, ecommerce will be more evenly spread among categories.

In-store pickup will emerge as the clear preference for US click-and-collect buyers.

Shoppers want help: Too many choices online can overwhelm consumers and leave them frustrated by the effort required to make a purchase decision.

Smartphones will continue to gain ground as digital sales shift away from computers and tablets. In 2027, mcommerce (sales made on smartphones, tablets, and other mobile devices) will near the tipping point of half of ecommerce sales.

We predict Prime Day will surpass $8 billion in US ecommerce sales over the two-day period. Prime Day sales growth correlates strongly with overall holiday ecommerce performance. Over the past three years, Amazon Prime Day sales growth has closely aligned with holiday season ecommerce sales growth.

Google wants to be a retail hub: Less than a month after rolling out a rebuilt Google Shopping, the tech giant launched a host of in-store and local shopping features.

The news: Walmart's global advertising business expanded 28% in Q3, with Walmart Connect in the US growing by 26%, the company reported Tuesday. The results marked the second consecutive quarter that Walmart outpaced Amazon鈥檚 ad growth, fueled by a broadening number of advertisers, particularly from marketplace sellers.