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TikTok offers a teen time limit as US ban talks boil over: Talk of serious action is heating up, and TikTok is waving olive branches to prevent the worst.

Following TikTok trends is vital for staying relevant when working with influencers, creating content on owned channels, or developing paid social ads. But trending content on the platform also reveals greater patterns of what works (and what doesn鈥檛) with Gen Zers, 71.1% of whom will be on TikTok next year, according to our May 2023 forecast.

TikTok eclipsed Twitter, Pinterest, and Snapchat in US users within just a few years, according to our estimates, and now it鈥檚 chasing Instagram. After years of exceptional growth, TikTok will boast more than 100 million US monthly users in 2023鈥攗nless lawmakers stand in its way.

Key stat: Nearly 60% of TikTok viewers are more likely to trust a brand after hearing about it from a creator compared with hearing about it from a standard, in-feed ad, said Sam Kimmel, global creator partnerships lead at TikTok, during a CreatorIQ webinar.

TikTok Shop became available across the US last week. The social video platform has a lot to gain in retail and ad revenues, but it risks facing the same challenges Meta has had with social commerce on Instagram鈥攗sers' reluctance to actually complete purchases in app. But with sister app Douyin setting the blueprint for TikTok鈥檚 social commerce endeavors, the platform isn鈥檛 starting from scratch. Here鈥檚 a look at TikTok鈥檚 social commerce strategy and potential in five charts.

On today鈥檚 episode, host Bill Fisher is joined by our analysts Paul Briggs and Man-Chung Cheung and forecasting writer Ethan Cramer-Flood to talk about the TikTok bans currently in place around the world. They consider if the pressure building on TikTok in the US could fan out to other countries.

It鈥檚 no surprise that 18- to 24-year-old TikTok users spend a lot of time on the app鈥�79 minutes per day, according to our latest forecast. But what鈥檚 not so obvious is that Millennials and Gen X users are gobbling up tons of TikTok videos, too.

TikTok is competing with just about everyone, according to our analyst Jasmine Enberg. Its lower costs per thousand are helping it pull ad share away from platforms like Meta, while its appeal to Gen Z consumers is pulling search dollars away from Google and Amazon. But it can play nice too, a strategy the platform has had to adopt in Washington to avoid a total US ban.

TikTok is rolling out its Shop feature to all 100 million US users (per our May forecast), using a tab on the home screen to drive users to the marketplace and allowing videos directly containing purchase links, in order to drive in-app ecommerce traffic.

TikTok users are spending half of their time watching videos that are 1 minute in length or longer, according to The Information.

If TikTok gets banned (and it鈥檚 a very big 鈥渋f鈥�), advertisers need to know where consumers will go. Instagram and YouTube would be likely beneficiaries, but OTT TV like Netflix could also see gains. Advertisers may even branch out to other categories entirely, like retail media. Here are five charts showing what could happen.

ByteDance is dead set on building up TikTok Shop in the US: Its aggressive moves to build a robust shopping service could lead to a $500 million loss this year.

Meta could benefit significantly if TikTok left the US: A House vote looms, impacting national security and social media dynamics.

TikTok鈥檚 US growth is slowing: That trend correlates with the launch of TikTok Shop, which some feel degraded the app鈥檚 experience.

By 2025, US adults will spend more time on TikTok than on Facebook, according to our June forecast. This marks a major milestone for TikTok, which is on track to become the largest social platform in total daily minutes by the same year.

On today's podcast episode, our vice president of Briefings Stephanie Taglianetti hosts a mock-debate-style analyst showdown on Meta versus TikTok. Analyst Debra Aho Williamson and director of Briefings Jeremy Goldman go head to head, advocating on behalf of Meta (Debra) and TikTok (Jeremy) to prove which social platform is the bigger threat in three areas: getting people to spend time on each app, meeting advertisers鈥� needs, and AI innovation.

TikTok bans in colleges go viral: The fallout from students and teachers could be indicative of wider pushback against banning the app.

TikTok aggressively courts sellers: The company aims to grow its social commerce sales by offering merchants free listings and shipping, along with zero commissions.

50% of Americans support a government ban on TikTok, with higher support among Republicans and older Americans. Continued scrutiny could be TikTok鈥檚 downfall.

Time spent with TikTok will reach 55.8 minutes per day among US adult users this year, per our latest forecast, about 9 minutes more than expected in last year鈥檚 update. In 2024, time spent will increase to 58.4 minutes, up 4.8% year over year. We also expect TikTok鈥檚 US user base to cross the 100 million mark this year.

Few US merchants are selling goods on TikTok Shop: Many are reluctant to invest time and resources in the platform given the widespread speculation that it will be banned or sold.

Regulatory pressure mounts in EU: The European Commission is following in the footsteps of various US agencies, states, and schools by banning the TikTok app on devices. Will the rest of Europe comply?

In 2022, both YouTube and TikTok captured 46 minutes of their adult US users鈥� attention each day, per our estimates. Netflix reigned supreme at 60 minutes daily. Time spent with TikTok will tick up every year through 2024, when it will reach 48 minutes per day, but it won鈥檛 pass Netflix anytime soon.

After its US launch in September, TikTok Shop faces its first holiday season, heating up competition in the social commerce space.