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On today's episode, in our "Retail Me This, Retail Me That" segment, we conduct a physical examination of the US retail space: what do our new forecasts tell us, which categories are leading the charge (or struggling), and how is the banking debacle weighing on consumers purchasing decisions? Then for "Pop-Up Rankings," we rank the top four symptoms to pay attention to over the coming months. Join our analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts analysts Sky Canaves and Zak Stambor.

Programmatic advertising will account for 91.3% of US digital display ad spend this year, or a total of $157.35 billion, per our December 2023 forecast. Last week, advertisers at Programmatic I/O discussed where those ad dollars are headed and how programmatic advertising is changing. From ad spend waste to the expansion of retail media, here are three big trends discussed at the event.

In just five years, retail media went from a $1 billion segment to a $30 billion segment. With US omnichannel retail media ad spend poised to reach $59.98 billion this year, per our October 2023 forecast, non-retail industries from health and fitness to restaurants and financial institutions are looking to build out their own media networks.

US retail media ad spend will more than double between 2023 and 2027, reaching a total of $109.40 billion, according to our forecast.

Total US retail return volume will reach $627.34 billion this year, a 2.2% increase YoY, according to our forecast. Some retailers are turning to return fees to make up for increased costs, but that鈥檚 a risky move that may end up alienating customers. Here are three alternatives to return fees, ranging from the short term (building out product descriptions and customer reviews) to the long term (creating a returns as a service offering).

Retail media will stay ahead of connected TV (CTV) in US ad spending and close in on traditional TV this year, according to our forecast. Search overall, including paid search on retail media networks, will reach $108.48 billion in 2023.

US retail marketplace ecommerce sales will grow 11.4% to reach $428.30 billion this year, per our forecast. Because Amazon (73.4%) and eBay (8.2%) will rake in the majority of those sales, smaller marketplaces like Shein, Michaels, and Wayfair are getting creative and taking the battle for sales in-store.

This year鈥檚 Groceryshop 2023 event in Las Vegas focused on marrying in-store and digital experiences, the growing retail media wave, and the benefits of personalizing messaging based on each consumer鈥檚 motivations, among many other takeaways. All of that comes as US food and beverage retail sales are expected to reach $1.378 trillion this year and surpass $1.578 trillion in 2026, according to our June forecast.

Social commerce sales are continuing to rise steadily, reaching $82.82 billion in the US next year, per our forecast. But it鈥檚 getting harder to convert new buyers. Here鈥檚 how retailers can encourage more social media purchases and boost their social commerce sales.

Close to a third of US digital buyers will purchase from a company located outside the country in 2024, for a total of 71.8 million cross-border ecommerce buyers, per our forecast.

Digital D2C disruptors, like Peloton and Casper, will bring in about $100 billion less in US ecommerce sales than the $134.55 billion of their established counterparts this year, according to our forecast.

Retail media ad spend will make up over one-fifth of total US ad spending by 2027, per our forecast.

This year, US consumers will pay over $35 billion in retail membership fees, according to our forecast. Some 53% of that will go to Amazon, making it by far the biggest player.

US retail digital ad spend will grow 14.2% next year to reach $84.00 billion, or 28.6% of total digital ad spend, per our forecast.

From Goop and the New York Times to TikTok creators, everyone is putting out a gift guide this year, trying to get a piece of this year鈥檚 holiday sales pie, which we forecast to reach $1.31 trillion in the US.

US fashion online resale platform sales will increase 15.8% this year, totaling $14.14 billion, according to our forecast. Sales will continue to grow by double-digit rates through 2026, when they will reach $23.92 billion.

US retail media ad spend will hit $45.15 billion this year, an increase of almost 20% over 2022, according to our forecast. Growth will accelerate each year through 2027, when we expect spend to reach $106.12 billion.

After experiencing a surge in growth in 2021, US retail sales growth began to slow last year, a pattern which will continue into 2023. According to our forecast, sales will rise by less than 3% this year, reaching over $7.3 trillion.

US cosmetic and beauty sales are expected to grow over 10% this year鈥攎ore than three times the 2.9% rate of the overall retail market, according to our forecast. It鈥檚 a sign of the 鈥渓ipstick effect,鈥� said our analyst Sky Canaves on our 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail鈥� podcast.

Key stat: US digital commerce platform gross payment value growth will slow down this year, increasing only 9.0% compared with last year鈥檚 25.0%, per our forecast.

Credit cards will remain the most popular retail payment method in the US through next year, with total credit card transaction value reaching $3.843 trillion in 2025, per our forecast.

US annual social commerce sales per buyer will nearly double from $627.8 in 2023 to $1,223.7 in 2027, according to our forecast.

Mobile apps are vital for commerce. In fact, among US smartphone users, 65.8% will use retail apps in 2024, putting the category behind only maps/navigation apps (72.8%) and weather apps (71.1%) in terms of adoption, according to our July 2023 forecasts.

We project US in-store retail media ad spend will nearly quadruple by 2027, but that鈥檚 starting from a fairly small base of $240 million this year, according to our forecast. Here are tips from experts on building an in-store retail media network.

Cross-border buyer numbers are rising in Europe as shoppers seek value and variety鈥攂ut consumer expectations and regulatory changes could challenge future growth.