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Consumers take a cautious approach to back-to-school shopping: To drive shoppers to spend, Macy鈥檚 revamped its Epic Threads brand, Kohl鈥檚 added Limited Too, and Old Navy offered cash back.

Inflation continues to impact spending in Q2, with 84% of consumers saying inflation had an impact on their spending, a 10% increase over Q1, per Jungle Scout鈥檚 research. Meanwhile, Amazon product categories recorded sales increases and social media shopping is on the rise.

Prime Day 2024 shatters records yet again as consumers stock up on essentials: Shoppers spent $14.2 billion online, spurred by significant discounts and the chance to get a head start on back-to-school needs.

Key Question: How does 2022鈥檚 US holiday season performance shape our early retail and ecommerce spending forecast for the 2023 holidays? KEY STAT: Last year, holiday season retail sales grew by 4.8% YoY, following two years of surging retail and ecommerce growth. We expect a similar gain of 4.5% for the 2023 holiday season.

In China, ecommerce channel ad spending represents over 38% of total digital ad spending, and ecommerce search spending accounts for 64.0% of total search. Could the US figures reach similar heights?

Ecommerce will account for 35% of all back-to-school shopping this year: That鈥檚 a massive shift from the 23% share it accounted for prior to the pandemic as consumers embrace convenience.

The rise of shopping apps selling ultralow-cost goods from China is drawing more value-driven US consumers. But are their strategies sustainable over the long term?

Other planned actions include an Amazon boycott from March 7-14, a Nestl茅 boycott from March 21-28, a Walmart boycott from April 7-14, and another one-day blackout on April 18.

Amazon can stake a claim as one of Canada鈥檚 top mass merchants, even without having physical stores. It has reached this milestone after more than three years of accelerated retail ecommerce in the country.

Unifying omnichannel helps SMBs navigate ecommerce normalization. In a late-pandemic world, in-store shopping has rebounded鈥攂ut ecommerce will still exceed 15% of US retail in 2023, per our forecast, signaling stores must further integrate systems.

Ecommerce and digital ad spending track closely with retail media growth. US retail ecommerce sales will reach $1.163 trillion in 2023, growing 10.5% YoY. We expect growth to accelerate to more than 11% each year through 2026. As long as ecommerce remains healthy, retail media is likely to benefit since most retail media ads are tied to digital shopping and buying activity.

Generous returns policies have encouraged shoppers to buy online, but an unsustainable wave of returned goods is forcing retailers to rethink their strategies.

Businesses that have already adopted buy now, pay later (BNPL), such as Walmart or Wayfair, will likely be among the first to embrace A2A. Gen Z Breaks Into the Financial Services Mainstream. Gen Z is the new customer鈥攁nd their business must be won today. In 2023, there will be more adult Gen Zers than adolescents for the first time, equaling about half the size of the millennial population.

Gen Z鈥檚 favorite platform has started testing TikTok Shop with select US merchants. The company鈥檚 latest corporate reshuffle and hiring plans point to a focus on commerce, which will offset a lowered ad revenue outlook. US ecommerce livestreaming and owned fulfillment centers are on the horizon鈥攂uilding on the #TikTokMadeMeBuyIt phenomenon (30 billion views and counting) to entice young shoppers.

Go further: Check out our US Amazon Ecommerce Forecast 2024.

Amazon鈥檚 website is by far the most visited ecommerce site by unique monthly visitors in the US, per November 2023 Similarweb data.

However, tightening marketing budgets鈥攑articularly among tariff-impacted international ecommerce firms鈥攎ay slow growth. Brands are likely to reallocate spend within digital, favoring lower-funnel formats with clearer ROI over upper-funnel channels.

Players like Shopify are investing heavily in merchant services tools to offset slowing ecommerce growth and diversify revenues. This is driving competitors to bolster their own offerings: Amazon has built out a slew of seller services, including Buy with Prime, revenue-based financing, and Seller Wallet. Walmart has begun adding SMB tools, too.

Click and collect has matured as an ecommerce channel, but growth will slow as pandemic concerns alleviate.

Walmart, Amazon, Instacart make search enhancements. Uber takes on TaskRabbit.

Alibaba, Amazon, and Mercado Libre dominate retail ecommerce in different parts of the world. Here鈥檚 a look at how these marketplaces stack up, in seven charts and graphics.

Shopping features overperform among millennials, which should drive issuers to tether shopping to other card benefits. Millennials鈥� most valued features鈥攔eturn protection, extended warranty coverage, and free shipping enrollment鈥攁ren鈥檛 the most in-demand features overall.