蘑菇AV

The buy button has been on a growth tear since Shopify opened it up to enterprise customers outside of its ecosystem

The news: Payments giant PayPal formally rolled out PayPal Ads, its business set to debut during the upcoming holiday shopping season, at Advertising Week New York. The move marks PayPal's entry into the competitive digital advertising space, harnessing its vast user base and transaction data.

What this means: EWS wanted to make Paze widely available before the holiday season. While it鈥檚 technically meeting this goal, the payment method likely won鈥檛 get much traction during the lucrative shopping season. It will take time to convert customers. And despite its broad consumer availability, Paze鈥檚 merchant network is still limited.

But the digital wallet likely won鈥檛 meet its holiday shopping goal, given that the season starts next month for most consumers, but uptake should take off in 2025.

On today鈥檚 podcast episode, we discuss if AI development is slowing down or speeding up, when it鈥檚 all said and done what happens to TikTok, if live sports are under threat from highlights, the potential impact of impending tariffs, which sports kids play the most, and more. Tune in to the discussion with Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Senior Director of Forecasts Oscar Orozco, Principal Forecasting Writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, and Senior Forecasting Analyst Zach Goldner.

Yeah, this is definitely also a common holiday thing, where we'll see holiday sales volume increase, but profits won't actually increase at the rate you might expect. And that's because that sales volume is happening with such discounted merchandise.

蘑菇AV clients' top 10 '24 topics : CTV led ad growth, AI drove innovation, and retail media surged, while TikTok and Gen Z reshaped the landscape.

More than one-third (37%) of shoppers plan on buying gift cards this holiday season, per i2c and PYMNTS. Gen Zers will lead the way in gift card buying, according to Blackhawk Network鈥檚 holiday sales forecast: Gen Z plans to buy 70% more gift cards than older generations this holiday season.

US Holiday Shopping 2024(Subscription required). Methodology: Data is from the August 2024 Narvar report 鈥�2024 State of Returns.鈥� 1,924 US consumers ages 18-75 were surveyed during June 2024.

US shoppers planned to set aside 43% of their shopping budgets for gift cards during the 2023 holiday season鈥攁 6-percentage-point increase from 2022, per Blackhawk Network. Gen Z is expected to increase its share of gift card spending by a whopping 12%. What鈥檚 next? Rampant prepaid and gift card fraud could crimp use.

Under Armour鈥檚 turnaround gained momentum: But the company鈥檚 sales still fell 10% on a currency-neutral basis鈥攁 marked contrast with Puma, which reported a 5% jump in revenues.

TikTok鈥檚 introduction of search ads ahead of the holiday shopping season positions the platform to capture a significant share of search-driven commerce, providing a new avenue for advertisers to connect with motivated buyers.

These sales and early holiday shopping also help explain the big monthly jump in revolving credit. This boost in spending鈥攊f sustained鈥攃ould be a sign consumers are healthier financially than fears would suggest and the recent slowdown in retail sales growth could be turning a corner.

Affirm hopes its growth will continue during the holiday season. More than one-third of US consumers plan to spend more this holiday season than last year, according to a Block and Afterpay survey. US holiday sales are projected to reach $1.316 trillion in 2023, per our forecasts.

As Latin America鈥檚 digital revolution marches on, advertisers and retailers must keep pace with how and where consumers are spending their time鈥攁nd money鈥攊f they wish to maintain a competitive edge in today鈥檚 rapidly evolving business environment.

Key stat: US retail mcommerce holiday season sales will reach $140.65 billion this year, per our July 2024 forecast. These mobile purchases will make up for more than three-quarters (75.6%) of the net increase in holiday ecommerce sales. What it means: Brands can take advantage of heightened consumer interest and traffic during the holiday season by providing incentives to download a mobile app.

Read the full report, US Holiday Shopping 2024.

More holiday shoppers are starting early. Key stat: 16% of US consumers have already begun shopping for holiday gifts, according to June 2024 data by CivicScience. That鈥檚 an increase from only 9% who started holiday shopping in July 2019.

Retailers, streamers embrace shoppable TV ads to shorten the path to purchase: WBD, Amazon, Kroger, and The CW Network are relying on the format to drive product discovery and sales.

Target, for example, launched its holiday sale on October 1 last year. That early start to the holiday season is unlikely to change this year. The big takeaway: Retailers are betting on a strong holiday season; the National Retail Federation expects US imports to rise to their highest levels in two years this summer.

So I'm obviously based on my own prediction thinking that it is going to get the ban, and part of that is because I think six weeks is not enough time during the holiday season to move anybody to action. I don't know that it means that it'll be a forever ban, but I think January 19th is truly around the corner and it'll be hard for them to make any big movements.

Looking ahead: A highly competitive holiday season is shaping up, with US retail sales projected to increase by 4.8% YoY, per our forecast; ecommerce is expected to grow nearly twice as fast (9.5%). Nearly 4 in 10 respondents anticipate increasing their ad spend by 11% to 25% in Q4, with an additional 11% expecting to boost their budgets by more than 25%.

Go further: Read our Holiday Shopping 2023 report.