蘑菇AV

The data points: Nearly 3 in 4 back-to-school shoppers expect to spend the same or more this fall, and more than 1 in 3 parents anticipate spending more than they did in 2024, per a PwC consumer survey. This suggests that even as consumers brace for higher prices鈥攁 consistent finding across University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys鈥攄emand remains resilient. Our take: The survey findings square with our back-to-school forecast, which expects sales to rise 3.0% YoY, down from 3.3% last year, marking the second consecutive year of declining growth. Retail ecommerce back-to-school sales are set to increase 6.8%, a deceleration from last year鈥檚 7.4% gain. Though consumers are still spending, they鈥檙e becoming more selective. Retailers will need to lead with promotions, value-driven assortments, and early-season deals to capture share in this more cautious shopping environment.

The commerce media space is growing fast, and as it gets more crowded, it鈥檚 becoming harder to keep up with the retail media giants. But by teaming up, smaller players can more easily scale their networks to achieve the reach to stay competitive.

The insight: Amazon is trying to figure out how it can benefit from the AI agentic boom without giving shopping agents unfettered access to its site, according to a report by The Information. Our take: While agentic commerce is far from the norm for the time being, retailers need to be prepared. That鈥檚 especially true for companies with retail media businesses, given the potential for AI agents to upend their ability to monetize their sites.

H-E-B is expanding its retail media footprint with the launch of a new self-service advertising platform, developed in partnership with Epsilon.

Amazon shrugs off economic pressure: The retail giant says it hasn鈥檛 seen any meaningful average selling price increases, nor have shoppers pulled back spending.

That change has far-reaching implications鈥攏ot just for restaurants and delivery platforms, but for the wider retail landscape, as consumers increasingly turn to delivery for all kinds of products. Our take: With more restaurant spending being funneled through platforms like DoorDash and Uber Eats, operators are having to rethink their acquisition strategy.

Despite the rise of digital shopping, brick-and-mortar still dominates retail. This makes in-store digital advertising attractive for marketers, but a new 蘑菇AV and Placer.ai study reveals critical disconnects between marketers' assumptions and consumer reality.

The news: A majority of GLP-1 weight loss drug consumers are now staying on the medications for more than a year, per an annual Prime Therapeutics analysis. The Prime study includes 5,780 people via healthcare claims over three years; the mean age was 47 and 80% were women. The final word: Adherence rates longer than a year validates the idea that prescription weight loss GLP-1s, and newer drugs on the way, are here to stay as chronic disease treatments. It shifts typical weight loss marketing from cyclical鈥攌eep your New Year鈥檚 resolution or lose weight for your wedding鈥攖o medical and consistent.

Placing them in densely populated areas helps Walmart fill inventory gaps between retail locations and larger fulfillment centers. The bigger picture: Dark stores are just one piece of Walmart鈥檚 larger strategy to strengthen its online business, which is expected to turn a profit for the first time this year.

The scene: When Cooper Flagg鈥攖he odds-on favorite to be the NBA Rookie of the Year next season鈥攕teps onto the court for the first time, he鈥檒l be wearing New Balance basketball shoes. Our take: New Balance鈥檚 push to sign Flagg, along with its other star-powered ambassadors, underscores its clear ambition to break into the top tier of global sportswear brands. While Nike and Adidas still lead by a wide margin, New Balance has its sights set on Puma, which reported $9.5 billion in sales last year鈥攚ell ahead of New Balance鈥檚 $7.8 billion. To close the gap, New Balance needs to turn its growing visibility into demand, which is far from a sure thing. From there, it must maintain that momentum with consistent sales across both its performance and lifestyle lines. If Flagg lives up to the hype and the brand finds ways to ride that momentum, New Balance could take a meaningful step up the sneaker hier

Analytics firm Tourism Economics and real estate data provider CoStar downgraded their US hotel forecast this month, citing decreased business spending in wake of the Trump administration鈥檚 tariffs and soft international visitor volume. Revenues per available room (revPAR) are now expected to rise 1% this year for hotels, down from a prior forecast of 1.8%.

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Eating out less: Inflation and economic anxiety are causing low-income consumers to think twice before pulling into a McDonald鈥檚 drive-thru鈥攁 broader industry trend as US QSR traffic among this group sank by nearly double-digit percentages YoY, McDonald鈥檚 CEO Chris Kempczinski said on the company鈥檚 Q1 call.

The tests: In an effort to regain momentum, Target is piloting several initiatives aimed at boosting sales and protecting its margins. Our take: Target isn鈥檛 standing still amid its challenges鈥攂ut it isn鈥檛 clear if its latest moves will resonate with consumers. It鈥檚 encouraging to see Target establish an 鈥渁cceleration office鈥� to push innovation forward. But with consumer budgets under strain, finding the right formula won鈥檛 be easy鈥攅specially given the stiff competition it faces from Amazon, Walmart, and others.

Consumers aren鈥檛 just looking for deals鈥攖hey鈥檙e looking for brands they can trust. Nearly 80% of consumers say they鈥檇 be more likely to try a new retailer if it appeared in their bank鈥檚 rewards program, according to a new report from 蘑菇AV and Chase Media Solutions.

Netflix House shows the power of brand marketing: The streamer鈥檚 retail play capitalizes on cheap real estate and consumer demand for experiences.

The news: Eight years after acquiring Whole Foods, Amazon is moving to more fully integrate the grocer into its core business, Business Insider reports. Our take: Amazon is clearly aware of the friction鈥攁nd the opportunity鈥攊n its grocery ecosystem.

The average vehicle age keeps climbing in the US: Advance Auto Parts is banking on maintenance and repair to help it steer clear of macroeconomic speed bumps.

Amazon links its speed to a sharp uptick in demand for groceries and household goods鈥攁 category that鈥檚 now growing more than twice as fast as all others in the US. Our take: Amazon Prime is already enormous, with roughly 3 in 4 US households, or 99.8 million, subscribed, per our forecast.

The insight: Travel demand has stabilized after a turbulent start to Q2, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in an interview with CNBC. As a result, the airline reinstated its profit outlook for the year. It had withdrawn its forecast after President Donald Trump鈥檚 Liberation Day tariff announcements. Our take: The summer travel season is shaping up to be better than airlines expected at the beginning of Q2鈥攂ut demand remains constrained by uncertainty as consumers debate whether to indulge now or conserve their resources in anticipation of future financial strain. Airlines can either juice demand by lowering prices, or protect their bottom lines by cutting capacity and doubling down on premium experiences.

The insight: Younger consumers are opting out of human interaction when they shop. Our take: While younger consumers tend to adopt new behaviors faster, they鈥檙e also driving the direction of retail innovation. Retailers looking to stay competitive should prioritize the tech-driven, convenience-first features these shoppers now see as table stakes.

The report: OpenAI is reportedly developing a checkout feature that would allow users to complete purchases directly within ChatGPT, according to The Financial Times. Merchants would pay OpenAI a commission on any resulting sales. Our take: At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, checkout integration could fundamentally transform the ecommerce landscape. Even before news of the feature began circulating, brands were exploring AI optimization, or 鈥淎IO鈥�, to rank in AI-generated product recommendations. Now, with purchases just a click away, ChatGPT could emerge as a viable commerce engine鈥攅specially if it undercuts incumbent marketplaces鈥� take rates. And it likely won鈥檛 be alone for long. Rivals like Perplexity and Anthropic are almost certain to build similar transactional layers, creating a new crop of marketplace-like platforms for sellers in short order.

The news: Gen Z鈥檚 share of private label spending will overtake that of baby boomers by 2026, according to a Numerator report. Our take: Gen Z鈥檚 affinity for private labels is part of a broader behavioral shift鈥攐ne that retailers are making the most of. To encourage loyalty among this notoriously fickle cohort, companies will need to stay on top of emerging food trends, foster exclusivity and a sense of urgency with limited-edition releases, and make sure they satisfy Gen Zers鈥� desire for attractive packaging, transparent labeling, and sustainability.