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TikTok takeover: Product discovery has gone online, even as most shopping remains in-store. Top-of-funnel activities will move even further online. 鈥淪earch and discovery are moving onto new channels, and TikTok has been the big beneficiary, as long as it keeps its US business going,鈥� our analyst Sky Canaves said on a recent episode of our 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail鈥� podcast.

On today's episode, host Sara Lebow tees up a conversation between our analyst Andrew Lipsman and Ram Iyer, worldwide director, digital strategy and ecommerce at Microsoft, about omnichannel and mobile commerce, the consumer path to purchase, the metaverse, and more.

TikTok's marketing influence grows: The platform is becoming pivotal in holiday campaigns and consumer engagement.

The vast majority (96%) of Pinterest searches are unbranded, said Brittan Bushman, Pinterst鈥檚 director of strategy, during a session at Advertising Week New York 2023. This means that consumers turn to Pinterest to learn what kinds of products are out there, unlike traditional search engines like Google, where they go to refine their search for something they already know exists.

Nascent partnerships from 2023 will start packing a punch in 2024. Companies without an overwhelming market advantage will need to join forces with rivals or complementary partners to keep boosting revenues.

Mobile is driving ecommerce sales growth, with 43.2% of the $1.137 trillion in US ecommerce sales we project for this year. As mcommerce sales rise, retailers are innovating to get a piece of the $491.14 billion pie. Mobile commerce will be especially vital this holiday season. Some 79% of US online shoppers shopped via mobile during the Cyber Five last year, according to Bizrate Insights data cited in a Forrester report.

Second, as it aggressively expands its Amazon Fresh footprint, Amazon will introduce more in-store retail media formats, including in-store digital signage, smoke screen overlays on cooler doors, and experimenting with other surfaces. Third, Lipsman thinks Amazon will bring back its Prime Samples program, which allowed brands to market products via samples before being discontinued in 2019.

Restaurant sales rose 5.3% YoY in May, the third straight month of growth above 5%, per the US Commerce Department. That鈥檚 a clear sign that consumers are still spending but being pickier. Editor's note: This content is part of 蘑菇AV鈥檚 subscription Briefings, where we pair daily updates with data and analysis from forecasts and research reports.

Use this chart: Retail and commerce strategists should prepare for uneven global growth, assessing regional priorities and tapping into faster-growing markets. Marketers can stress ecommerce鈥檚 growing slice of retail to reinforce investment in online channels鈥攅ven when growth rates cool. Related 蘑菇AV reports:. Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2025 (蘑菇AV subscription required).

Prediction 4: A major US issuer will pilot a digital-only consumer credit card by the end of 2024. While virtual cards grew in popularity in 2024, issuers still offered physical cards alongside them. No major issuer in the US launched a digital-only card, likely due to consumers' reluctance to ditch their physical wallets.

US consumer spending rose just 1.8% YoY in Q1 2025鈥攁 drop from 4.0% in Q4 2024, per the US Commerce Department. 45.6% of consumers say a similar lifestyle makes them trust an influencer鈥檚 opinion, compared to 19.8% who trust those with a high follower count, per a 2025 Grin survey.

Others that are more reliant on D2C brands or cross-border commerce may face increased headwinds. Click here to view our full forecast for US digital ad spending, by tariff scenario.

Skai launches Celeste AI to streamline commerce media: Celeste combines cross-channel analysis and optimization, cutting task time from hours to seconds.

Others have been pulled to Meta platforms and TikTok, leaning on their large audiences and shoppable commerce features instead. Influencer and affiliate marketing are also valuable channels, though ROI can be harder to determine鈥攁n increasingly important metric during high-sales volume events like the Cyber Five.

Department stores face an uphill battle as discounters, online retailers take share: Our Industry KPIs show foot traffic declined during the holiday season, emphasizing the sector鈥檚 challenges.

The news: President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile. The Bitcoin reserve will hold Treasury Department Bitcoins that were forfeited as part of criminal or civil proceedings. The stockpile will consist of digital assets other than Bitcoin that were forfeited to the Department of Treasury. These assets may be sold or held.