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Almost half of adults worldwide (49%) have cut back on nonessential purchases over the last three months due to increasing prices for goods and services, per October data from Boston Consulting Group.

And Klarna is a popular payment choice: Almost 20% of US digital buyers will use Klarna this year—including 50% of BNPL users, according to our forecasts. And keeping users happy will be crucial for Apple Pay as it braces for a fiercer competitive environment.

Back in January, the Retail Daily newsletter editors made some retail predictions for 2024. While we were right about Amazon opening fulfillment centers out of physical stores, we were wrong about more digitally native brands partnering with Amazon. Want the full rundown? Here’s how we did.

We forecast total retail return value to reach $931.85 billion this year, a 2.0% increase over 2023. 81% of US digital shoppers review return policies before making a purchase with a merchant for the first time and 73% agree that a poor returns experience impacts their decision to shop with a merchant in the future, according to an August 2023 survey from Happy Returns and PayPal.

Key stat: Price inclination for food away from home was up 3.8% YoY in October 2024, higher than the 1.1% increase in inflation for food at home, according to data from the US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Shoppers in those markets may have reached their comfort zone with digital shopping and might be resistant to pushing much further. We forecast slight increases in penetration for those three countries going forward, but not by much. To view the full forecast, click here. The US is still on track for 20% ecommerce penetration, but it won’t happen before 2027.

The back-to-school season generates revenues brands and retailers count on, as the second-highest shopping volume of the year ahead of holiday. This year, though, back-to-school growth will be harder to come by as spending in key channels slows.

And BNPL is becoming a popular financing alternative: 4 in 10 US digital buyers will use BNPL at least once in 2025, per our forecasts. The Upgrade Financing feature should also prove popular among Apple fans who continually want the latest and greatest Apple products. Apple offers a similar upgrade program for the iPhone.

Per our inaugural forecast, more than 100 million people in the US will use shoppable media by 2025, accounting for more than 45% of digital buyers. This is largely due to the increase of shoppable content on social platforms like TikTok and Instagram. Retailers see an opportunity beyond social media, advancing the next wave of retail media network (RMN) growth.

It delivers the highest conversion rates by far for large retailers, with 90% of digital buyers completing their purchase with Pix after adding an item to their shopping cart. That’s compared with 70% and 30% of those that did so when paying with a credit or debit card, respectively. Retailers are leveraging Pix to drive online sales.