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Go further: Read our US Holiday Shopping 2024 report.

Over half (56%) of US grocery retail executives are concerned about competition from internet grocery stores (like Thrive Market or Fresh Direct), according to a June 2024 survey from Deloitte. Nearly as many (53%) are concerned about third-party grocery shopping apps like Instacart or DoorDash.

And also with us is Jeremy Goldman. Hey, Jeremy. Jeremy Goldman (01:00):. Hey, I wish I was a Sarah. I feel left out, but looking forward to this. Sara Lebow (01:04):. Everyone always does. Sarah Marzano (01:05):. We'll let you hang out with us anyway. Sara Lebow (01:07):. Yeah, we're a cool club. Okay, let's jump in. US e-commerce sales will total around $1.2 trillion this year.

Best Buy, in particular, may benefit from a late-season boost鈥攚e forecast the retailer鈥檚 US holiday ecommerce sales will drop 5.7% this year, totaling $4.27 billion. Target鈥檚 holiday ecommerce sales will rise 4.3% to reach $5.87 billion, while Walmart will grow its holiday ecommerce sales 9.7% to reach $21.56 billion, second to only Amazon鈥檚 $112.23 billion in ecommerce sales.

Temu, Pinduoduo anger Chinese sellers as push for lower prices and generous returns policies eat away at profits: That could complicate the former鈥檚 efforts to win over US merchants

While Amazon鈥檚 retail ecommerce sales are growing at a healthy clip鈥攚e expect US retail ecommerce sales on Amazon to rise 10.4% this year鈥攖hat鈥檚 less than half as fast as US social commerce sales, which we expect to grow 23.5% this year. At the same time, Amazon is on a relentless push to speed up fulfillment, which is where the new rapid-delivery service fits in.

India鈥檚 festive season kicks off on a high note: Strong early spending is a promising sign for brands like Apple and Amazon India that are investing heavily in the rapidly growing market.

US click-and-collect sales growth will slow slightly over the course of the next few years, per our forecast, as adoption levels off after an acceleration in 2020. Still, sales will increase by double-digit percentages both this year and next and reach $131.66 billion by 2026.

Despite bankruptcy rumors, Carvana will be the fastest-growing retail ecommerce company in the US both this year and next year, according to our forecast. In second place this year is Chewy, signaling the strength of category-focused retailers.

Amazon tries to expand Whole Foods鈥� appeal: It added a micro fulfillment center to one site so customers can pick up an array of items when they shop.

鈥淢exico sits in a sweet spot where it鈥檚 a large market, relatively mature, but there鈥檚 still more dollars coming into ecommerce than in many countries in Western Europe and the 鲍厂,鈥� Droesch said. To compare, Mexico鈥檚 ecommerce market is currently larger than the ecommerce markets of Spain, France, the UK, Germany, and Italy. Learn more in our Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks: Q4 2024.

Temu has risen rapidly up the ranks of the most popular US online retailers. The platform launched in the US in September 2022 with a massive budget for advertising and promotions from parent PDD Holdings, which also owns Chinese ecommerce giant Pinduoduo. By May 2023, Temu鈥檚 US online traffic ranked it as the fourth-most-visited retailer, per Comscore data, after Amazon, Walmart, and eBay.

And back with us from the UK is Senior Analyst Carina Perkins. Hey Carina. Carina Perkins (01:00):. Hi, Sara. Good to be on as always. Sara Lebow (01:02):. Good to have you. Okay, let's get into AI. Back in December, US digital retailers said generative AI would affect their business this year more than any other trend. That's according to data from Bolt Inc.

While our forecast expects US retail marketplace ecommerce sales to grow 10.2% this year to $384.57 billion, that growth largely stems from consumers consolidating more of their shopping with Amazon Prime and Walmart+ due to the stickiness of the membership programs.

US digital travel sales spiked 20.0%, per our forecast, thanks in part to the number of US consumers taking trips to Europe jumping 55% year-over-year (YoY) over the summer, per Allianz Partners.

Roughly 25% of customers at Walmart鈥檚 first pet services location had never bought pet items from the retailer before, Kaitlyn Shadiow, vice president of merchandising for pets for Walmart US, told CNBC, while visits for vet and grooming services led to a 鈥渉alo effect鈥� that boosted sales of pet food and other supplies.

The data: 71% of US consumers begin their holiday shopping on online marketplaces, according to eBay Ads. We project overall US marketplace ecommerce sales will grow by 10.2% this year, for a total of $384.57 billion. Marketplaces will account for 33.5% of total US retail ecommerce sales this year, and we forecast that share to grow.

That helps explain why personal luxury retail ecommerce sales in the US fell 3.2% last year, according to our forecast. While we expect sales to grow 3.1% this year, they鈥檒l still be short of 2022 spending levels. Our take: If there鈥檚 a company that can figure out how to better leverage YNAP鈥檚 assets, it is Mytheresa.

Respondents to the online survey were selected to align with the US population on the criteria of age (among ages 15 to 77), gender, and household income. The survey was fielded by a third-party sample provider. Data has a margin of error of 卤2.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval.