蘑菇AV

30-second TV ad spot costs are falling: Football remains the costliest ad inventory, but viewer pivots to digital are bringing down costs.

YouTube is positioned to be an advertising powerhouse. It鈥檚 one of the original digital video players, courting advertisers at a time when connected TV advertising is climbing. The platform鈥檚 Google ties offer it a more trustworthy reputation in the US than TikTok. And use is already extremely high. But YouTube鈥檚 high standing also makes growth difficult. Here are five charts summarizing YouTube鈥檚 position and potential.

Apple TV+ has some of the lowest penetration among major subscription video services, with just 16% of US households as of a June Advertising Research Foundation report. That places it below Max, Paramount+, and Peacock, which have also struggled to gain traction. With US subscription video growth slowing, heavy spending on original content to drive growth can only go so far.

CTV to continue strong US growth: Households using the format to more than double pay TV in 2024, aided by tech shifts.

In 2024, US digital pay TV services will make $15.41 billion in subscription revenues鈥攖hat鈥檚 nearly one-fourth of total subscription over-the-top (OTT) revenues and almost one-fifth of total pay TV subscription revenues. YouTube TV and Hulu + Live TV have grown their subscription revenue share. Prior to the pandemic in 2019, these services received half of US vMVPD subscription revenues.

US linear TV ad spend is shrinking (8.0% YoY) as connected TV (CTV) ad spend grows (21.2% YoY). This year, US CTV ad spend will total $25.09 billion while linear will total $61.31 billion.

Amazon grows ad revenues by 19% in Q3: Sports, shoppable ads, and live news bolster its appeal to advertisers.

As consumers increasingly cut the cord, connected TV (CTV) has emerged as a key platform for advertisers, with US brands expected to spend over $28 billion on CTV in 2024, according to 蘑菇AV. CTV鈥檚 performance-driven features, like precision audience targeting and detailed reporting, are transforming TV advertising and making it accessible for businesses of all sizes.

105.3 million people in the US will watch live sports via digital this year, up from 95.5 million last year, per our September 2024 forecast.

Roku Q3 results emphasize ad-supported growth: Increased streaming hours and accounts offer advertisers valuable inventory.

US consumers are flocking to low-cost plans with some amount of advertising.In 2022, increases were especially pronounced among ad-supported video on-demand (AVOD) services.

32% of US adults are watching subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services less because they are watching more on free streaming services, per a July 2023 Aluma Insights survey. For 34% of US adults, viewing behaviors across streaming services haven鈥檛 changed as a result of free streaming services.

For the second half of 2023, US retail media ad spending will reach $46.38 billion, per Insider Intelligence鈥檚 forecast. Meanwhile, connected TV (CTV) ad spending will also post growth of 20.0%. In response, marketers in 2024 will create dedicated retail and media strategies to leverage retail data sets in CTV.

US TV ad spend will fall 8% this year, per our forecast. Its share of total media ad spend is also in decline as marketers turn to faster-growing formats such as connected TV (CTV) and retail media.

Comcast Q3 performance fueled by streaming and live sports: Olympics and Peacock growth attract high-value audiences for advertisers.

Apple feels the pain of Apple TV+ struggles: Its Q4 revenues missed the mark in some divisions including Services, which includes advertising.

Nielsen鈥檚 dominance begins to crack: A survey shows advertisers gaining confidence in the measurement firm鈥檚 biggest competitors.

US adults will spend an average of 230.3 minutes per day on mobile in 2023, according to our forecast. While they will spend less time with connected TV (CTV), at 114.9 minutes per day, the gap between CTV and mobile is shrinking.

Total media ad spend in the US will reach $389.49 billion this year, according to our forecast. Over three-quarters (77.7%) of that will go toward digital channels like mobile, desktop/laptop, and connected TV (CTV).

On today's podcast episode, we discuss what's most to blame for this sustained ad spending rebound, what concerns us about it, and what we expect to see from ad spending in 2024. "In Other News," we talk about why ad-blocking rates are experiencing a gradual uptick and a cord-cutting milestone. Tune in to the discussion with our director of forecasting Peter Newman and vice president of content Paul Verna.

Our complete estimates for US programmatic ad spending can be accessed via our website鈥檚 interactive forecast module. Programmatic shoulders the digital display ad market. Programmatic advertising is the prevailing means of reaching consumers digitally, accounting for more than 9 in 10 display ad dollars in the US this year.

The US ad industry is at a crossroads. Which path it takes will depend heavily on which candidate is elected.

Ad-supported streaming is on the rise as viewers opt for cost-friendly options from platforms like Netflix and Disney+. With audience fragmentation increasing, advertisers must adopt smart, performance-driven strategies to stay effective in the evolving connected TV landscape.