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Ahead, we look at the state of play at the 2023 upfronts, including our latest forecast for US upfront ad spending and how a shift toward digital video, especially connected TV (CTV), is transforming this time-honored tradition. KEY QUESTIONS.

As consumers grow more likely to start their online shopping journeys on social networks, there are a few platforms to keep an eye on. TikTok and Instagram are competing on product discovery鈥攈istorically Google鈥檚 domain鈥攁nd commerce, which has been Amazon鈥檚 claim to fame.

With third-party cookies on the way out, marketers are leaning more heavily on first-party data to help power their digital advertising strategies. Retailers that want to increase their share of ad dollars should leverage customer data to help advertisers enhance campaign performance via measurement and attribution capabilities.

Connected TV (CTV) is the fastest-growing major ad format in the US, drawing strength from the migration of programming, viewers, and time spent to digital channels.

Highlight growth in retail media spend. Advocate for increasing retail media spend. Form strategic alliances with key retailers to gain preferential access to premium ad placements. More like this:. In-store retail media spend will hit $1 billion in 2028. Retail media, merchant teams must work together to maximize in-store marketing. 4 (more) retail media networks worth watching.

Our current outlook: Ad spending won鈥檛 bottom out. Our latest forecast predicts $278.59 billion in US digital ad spending next year, down from the $284.10 billion expected in our previous forecast鈥攁 setback of $5.51 billion. Budget cuts will affect some channels more than others. Social networks will be hit the hardest as major platforms struggle to adapt to Apple鈥檚 privacy changes.

Facing signal loss and challenging macroeconomic conditions, advertisers are pumping the brakes on social network ad spending. But social video is shining through the gloom.

Digital grocery shopping is booming in general. In 2023, grocery ecommerce sales will increase by 14.8% (to $160.91 billion), outpacing overall ecommerce, which will increase by just 10.5%. By 2024, 60.2% of all click-and-collect sales will be groceries. Delivery still rules, though, as click and collect will only make up roughly 35% of digital grocery sales this year and next year.

We expect 2023 to usher in changes in ad spending, audience, and commerce that will create a new crop of digital leaders.

Experimentation with new features like live shopping and native checkout will take a backseat. TikTok is (partially) the exception:. The percentage of TikTok users who buy via the app has exploded. It will reach parity with Facebook and surpass Instagram in 2023. TikTok is testing TikTok Shop (which includes live shopping) in the US, and reports suggest it will launch a supply-chain infrastructure.

Inflation continues to impact spending in Q2, with 84% of consumers saying inflation had an impact on their spending, a 10% increase over Q1, per Jungle Scout鈥檚 research. Meanwhile, Amazon product categories recorded sales increases and social media shopping is on the rise.

High inflation and growing interest rates are putting the credit card industry in a precarious position. As 2023 progresses, issuers and networks will rethink their strategies and marketing schemes to protect their bottom lines.

Our own retail media network offsite ad spending forecast has the category set to grow 64.1% this year to $11.04 billion. The two figures don鈥檛 tie up because of varying definitions, but both forecasts show the category is becoming a significant driver of retail media writ large.

Additionally, Home Chef used KPM鈥檚 shopper data to reach lapsed customers and in-market shoppers and measure performance after a streaming campaign on Roku. The campaign achieved 2.4 times the return on ad spend, and delivered a 20.6% lift in sales among new buyers. Home Chef was able to recapture lapsed buyers and activate a new segment of meal kit customers.

The channel will pull in around 10 times as many ad dollars as TikTok this year, and overall spend in the US still exceeds both CTV and retail media. TV advertising could be hurt by the SAG-AFTRA strike as show productions grind to a halt. However, unscripted TV and libraries of backlogged content could buoy the channel until a resolution is reached. Use this chart:. Budget TV ad spend.

Although its viewership totals trail major FAST competitors like The Roku Channel (87.0 million), Tubi (79.3 million), and Pluto TV (64.8 million), Samsung is positioning itself as a premium and engaging alternative. The broader CTV market is undergoing rapid transformation, with US CTV ad spend projected to surpass traditional TV in 2028, reaching $46.89 billion.

As the region鈥檚 No. 1 retail ecommerce player by total sales dollars, Mercado Libre has the competitive edge in each of the 18 Latin American markets it operates in.

Why it matters: Live sporting events, including NBA games, are one of the few remaining forms of appointment viewing, attracting significant ad spend. Our forecast calls for digital live sports viewers in the US to grow from 95.5 million in 2023 to 126.8 million by 2027鈥攁 32.8% increase over four years.