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UK regulators approve Shein IPO in a victory for China: While it may be too late for the fast-fashion retailer, the move could put the UK in China’s good graces and protect it from the worst of the trade war.

GenAI and social are set to heavily influence the UK commerce and advertising landscape in 2025, while thrifty consumer behaviors persist and video viewing shifts to mostly digital.

Like the broader apparel sector, most luxury goods are imported from other markets, like the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland—which face tariffs of 20%, 10%, and 31%, respectively. Shoppers will be stuck with at least some of those costs: UBS expects European luxury goods to cost 6% more, on average, as a result of the tariffs.

Nearly a quarter of the UK consumers have witnessed shoplifting in the past year: A similar number have also seen staff abused as retailers say crime has gotten out of hand.

The UK economy is in a tough spot: Consumers are keeping a tight grip on their wallets as tariffs and government budget cuts loom.

Also this month, Affirm expanded its tie-up with Adyen to push further in the UK after debuting there in November. It’s trying to better compete internationally with Sweden-based Klarna, which already has a large European presence. The two are currently evenly matched in the US: We forecast Affirm’s US BNPL payment value will total $30.58 billion this year, compared to Klarna’s $30.42 billion.

The company also collaborated with partners such as Bad Bunny, Wales Bonner, and Edison Chen. It also sold off the last of its once-lucrative Yeezy sneaker line’s inventory in Q4; Yeezy generated revenues of around €650 million ($700.8 million) in 2023.

In the UK, we predict that Boots, Marks & Spencer, Next, Tesco, and Sainsbury’s will grow their online sales faster than Amazon will between 2024 and 2028. But Amazon will continue increasing its share through 2028. Despite an increasingly competitive ecommerce market, Amazon will continue gaining share of ecommerce sales in France, Germany, and the UK, per our forecast.

The tough situation hasn’t gone unnoticed; the fast fashion retailer is reportedly under pressure to slash its UK IPO valuation to around $30 billion, which is less than a third of its $100 billion peak in 2022. Our take: There’s no silver bullet for Shein’s current challenges.

For example, only three other countries will exceed even a 25% ecommerce penetration rate: the UK (30.4%), South Korea (27.2%), and Indonesia (26.6%). China will account for 50.4% of all worldwide ecommerce this year, so its weight unreasonably skews the global math. If China is excluded, ecommerce’s share of worldwide retail lands at a more realistic 12.5%.

The news: Shein is set to slash its UK IPO valuation to $50 billion, down 24% from its last funding round and half its $100 billion peak in 2022, per Reuters. Why is this happening? Shein faces hurricane-force headwinds that challenge its market positioning both in the US and EU.