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The news: Adyen merchants in the UK can now offer Affirm鈥檚 buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment options at checkout, per a press release. Affirm and Adyen have worked together in the US since 2020. The partnership鈥檚 average annual volume jumped more than sevenfold from 2021 to 2023, according to the release. Why it matters: Affirm entered the UK market in November.

Offering BNPL at checkout can make its buy button more attractive to the 91.5 million US users we forecast will pay with BNPL this year. And Afterpay will gain access to Cash App鈥檚 57 million active users, which can help the BNPL provider circumvent an industrywide user growth slowdown. Our take: Block is trying to tie its various brands more closely to Cash App.

The tech is dominating recent headlines as retailer and consumer interest explodes

Firms must plan for regulatory changes across areas like BNPL, open banking, crypto, and credit cards

Marqeta Flex helps digital wallets and card issuers embed BNPL options, eliminating the need for direct integrations with merchants

CVS puts Novo Nordisk鈥檚 Wegovy (not Lilly鈥檚 Zepbound) on commercial drug formularies: Market reaction to the decision affirms how much influence PBMs like CVS Caremark have over prescription drug access. Eli Lilly may need to explore creative pricing strategies to improve access to Zepbound.

The BNPL provider also expanded into medications for the first time through a partnership with GoodRx. Our take: BNPL players operate in a low-margin industry and have historically struggled with long-term profitability. But CEO Max Levchin expects profitability will be a 鈥渘ew normal鈥� for Affirm.

While this is a win for Klarna, merchants may not want to take on the higher transaction costs that sometimes come with BNPL plans

US buy now, pay later (BNPL) user growth is slowing, plummeting from 97.0% in 2021 to just 4.1% in 2028, according to our forecast.

Expanding into healthcare payments can help invigorate growth for BNPL players as user growth slows

The BNPL industry鈥檚 explosive growth is a thing of the past. The number of US BNPL users will grow only 6.9% in 2024, a major slowdown from prior years. And while payment value will rise at a still-strong rate of 20.8% this year, it too marks a significant deceleration.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss how a department of justice suggested breakup of Google could change search, the potential impact of Walmart鈥檚 personalized homepages and customer support, what鈥檚 next for the buy now, pay later (BNPL) space, how Tesla鈥檚 new 鈥渃ybercab鈥� could change the world of robotaxis, what charitable donations in America look like, and more. Tune in to the discussion with host Marcus Johnson, director or Briefings Jeremy Goldman, analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf and vice president of Briefings Stephanie Taglianetti.

It鈥檚 a large volume opportunity for the BNPL player and helps Klarna compete with. It can also help keep users loyal to Apple as its NFC tech opens up

This should help boost volume for both the booking platform and for the card-linked installment offering, given BNPL鈥檚 popularity in the travel category and an overall spike in popularity for card-linked BNPL

And the card鈥檚 growth will also propel the BNPL player鈥檚 overall volume: We expect Affirm鈥檚 US BNPL payment value will total $30.58 billion in 2025.

More than one-quarter (27%) of UK adults鈥攁bout 14 million people鈥攗sed BNPL at least once in the last six months of 2022, per data from the UK鈥檚 Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This can greatly boost Affirm鈥檚 user base: We forecast the BNPL provider will have 16.7 million US users in 2025. How it will fare: Affirm will face steep competition attracting UK BNPL users.

Afterpay鈥檚 popularity could attract new cardholders: BNPL gross merchandise volume increased 23% YoY in Q3, totaling $8.24 billion. Our take: From Square Loans, to Cash App Borrow, to Afterpay, Block鈥檚 lending products are clearly meeting a customer need and should continue to propel the company鈥檚 growth forward.

The BNPL provider expanded its merchant network and pushed in-store. A potential Apple Pay deal could help raise its profile

Structural repayment differences will keep BNPL default rates lower than those of credit cards. Most BNPL providers require automatic repayments, helping keep rates low. And many consumers tend to pay down their BNPL obligations before their credit card debts because they鈥檙e smaller and more manageable. Card-linked installments will be BNPL fintechs鈥� biggest competitors.

That hasn鈥檛 yet dampened sales, if only because more consumers are going into debt or using buy now, pay later (BNPL) options to finance the purchase. 86% of Gen Zers admit to overspending during live events, not only on tickets but also on adjacent categories like food and beverages as well as apparel and accessories, per a survey by Merge.

They鈥檙e also leading the charge in buy now, pay later (BNPL) adoption. Over the holidays, 54% of Gen Zers used BNPL, outpacing the 50% who used credit cards, per a J.D. Power survey. That鈥檚 well ahead of the general public, where only 32% used BNPL, compared to 61% who used credit cards. Gen Z鈥檚 reliance on BNPL is only growing.

But usage of the payment option remained quite limited compared with the share of buyers who use BNPL at any point during the year