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The news: China is outpacing the US in retail media’s global rise, with nearly half of its digital ad spending now flowing through retail platforms. While Amazon still leads globally, its growth is slowing—expected to rise just 18.6% in 2025. Meanwhile, players like Uber Eats, Meijer, and Albertsons are growing ad revenues at triple-digit rates. Our take: Retail media is becoming more fragmented and competitive. Success now requires portfolio diversification, especially as new channels—like last-mile delivery and in-store signage—gain momentum. What began as an Amazon-centric, US-led trend is now a worldwide shift reshaping how consumers discover, consider, and buy.

We now expect US retail sales to grow at about half the 2.9% rate we forecast at the start of the year. More importantly, the dual rulings have injected more uncertainty into an already fragile retail landscape.

Tariffs threaten to reduce US digital ad spending growth this year. This series explains the effects tariffs will have on ad spending in search, social, CTV, and retail media—and which parts of each might fare best and worst.