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Amazon is the top dog of US retail, accounting for 37.6% of all US ecommerce sales this year for a total of $431.11 billion dollars, according to our forecast. While the giant has a successful stronghold in many US industries, Amazon isn鈥檛 dominant everywhere, especially as it pertains to a physical footprint and getting consumers comfortable with its elite tech. Here are a few areas Amazon hasn鈥檛 overtaken鈥攜et.

Amazon will account for 40.4% of US retail ecommerce sales or a total of $491.65 billion this year, according to our February 2024 forecast.

Over the next two years, the four ecommerce companies with the largest shares of US retail ecommerce sales will hold their spots. But moves by smaller players will shake up the rankings.

Amazon will increase its share of US ecommerce sales in five product categories next year, per our forecast. The biggest gains will be in health and personal care, furniture and home furnishings, and apparel and accessories.

Mcommerce will account for almost half (49.8%) of US ecommerce sales by 2027, according to our forecast.

Digital D2C disruptors, like Peloton and Casper, will bring in about $100 billion less in US ecommerce sales than the $134.55 billion of their established counterparts this year, according to our forecast.

US ecommerce sales will grow 9.3% to reach $1.137 trillion in 2023, per our forecast, thanks to cost-conscious consumers looking for better deals and an increasing number of digital grocery buyers. As 2023 wraps up, ecommerce will go out on a high note, with online holiday sales growth outpacing brick-and-mortar sales.

Amazon鈥檚 2023 Prime Day events brought in a combined $13.88 billion in US ecommerce sales last year, according to our forecast. But as consumers remain cautious with their spending, Amazon is looking to boost sales outside of the July and October tentpole events.

Mobile is driving ecommerce sales growth, with 43.2% of the $1.137 trillion in US ecommerce sales we project for this year. As mcommerce sales rise, retailers are innovating to get a piece of the $491.14 billion pie. Mobile commerce will be especially vital this holiday season. Some 79% of US online shoppers shopped via mobile during the Cyber Five last year, according to Bizrate Insights data cited in a Forrester report.

Both Walmart and Target beat our estimates for ecommerce sales鈥攂y 2.9 and 3.8 percentage points, respectively. Walmart鈥檚 US ecommerce sales jumped 20% YoY, fueled by its expanding marketplace assortment and investments in faster, more efficient delivery. Target鈥檚 digital comparable sales rose 8.7%, in part due to surging interest in same-day delivery from its Target Circle 360 members.

Building momentum: Shopify accounted for about 12% of US ecommerce sales last year, the company said. It plans to add share by luring more large brands; Reebok, Champion, and BarkBox have launched on the platform since the company's last earnings call.

US TikTok Shop employees prepare for layoffs: Tariffs and de minimis changes have pushed the platform鈥檚 ambitious commerce goal further out of reach.

Go further: Check out our tariff coverage, including our Live FAQ: The Impact of Trump鈥檚 Tariffs on Consumers, Businesses, and Trade, as well as our report on the Impact of Tariffs on US Businesses.