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In 2025, retail media ad spending will surpass linear TV ad spending; in 2026, retail media ad spending will exceed all of traditional media ad spending combined. Retail media is on its way to becoming a centrally important ad spending channel. While much of retail media ad spending remains concentrated on Amazon, retail media ad spending is becoming more and more diversified.

Pure-play advertising fuels US ad growth: Recurring events like the Olympics drive spending, but the market is steadily expanding even without them.

69% of US agency and marketing decision-makers measure the success of retail media campaigns through return on ad spend (ROAS) or incremental ROAS, according to July 2024 data by Quartile and NewtonX.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss the significance of a democratic country like Brazil banning X, how it will impact the platform in terms of users and ad dollars, and how advertisers in America are viewing the situation. Tune in to the discussion with host Marcus Johnson, vice president and analyst Jasmine Enberg and analyst Matteo Ceurvels.

Consumers may be concerned about the economy, but the outlook is good for ad spend in the final months of 2024. The share of advertisers concerned about a slowing US economy dropped 11 percentage points (from 49% to 38%) between November 2023 and August 2024, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). Retail media’s popularity, an influx of value-based messaging, high political ad spend, and connected TV (CTV) monetization will boost the ad industry the rest of 2024.

Marketers project Q4 revenue gains: Sales to outpace ad spend growth, driven by focus on more efficient spending strategies.

One in 40 US ad spending dollars went to OOH in 2023, but that ratio will be 1 in 50 ad dollars in 2028, mainly due to the very rapid increase in ad spending going to connected TV (CTV) and other digital formats. Advertising for local services and entertainment accounts for almost one-third of all OOH spend.

Ad spend continues to grow faster than the GDP, fueled in no small part by connected TV (CTV), retail media, social media, and search.

By 2027, more than 75% of worldwide ad spending will go to digital, and 20 of our 29 markets will be majority digital. Emerging, recovering, and advanced economies are all doing well. Central and Eastern Europe will lead the world in ad spending growth.

For brands, working with influencers was once an experimental addition to their media plans, but growth in influencer marketing spend is now outpacing its digital and social counterparts, per our forecast. While influencer partnerships still account for a significantly smaller part of the media mix, their growth is a sign that the industry is maturing—and more legacy advertisers want in.

Ad spending takes off as businesses invest in digital platforms. Digital ad spending in Spain is on track for robust growth from 2024 to 2028, per our forecast, demonstrating a clear market shift. The progression begins at $4.02 billion in 2024, which represents a 16.5% YoY increase. By 2028, spending will reach $6.88 billion, with YoY growth decelerating to 11.8%.

Ad spending growth is tapering off, but major changes are coming to the market, including the deprecation of third-party identifiers, a new era in TV ad measurement, and growing use of AI in advertising.

The German market has more ad dollars assigned to retail media than do either the French or UK markets. Retail media has had a head start in Germany thanks to Amazon. This year, retail media ad spending will account for 19.5% of all digital ad spending in Germany, 14.2% in France, and 12.5% in the UK. But growth won’t falter, even against a strong performance in other categories.

Mobile games capture over 90% of in-game ad spending. Although mobile’s share of in-game advertising is slowly declining, it still generates 90.5% of total in-game ad spend in the US. This year, mobile in-game advertising revenues will increase by 6.0% YoY, but that’s a slowdown following an uneven 2023.

Three years ago, traditional media accounted for the majority of ad spending. The balance tipped in 2022, and digital spending will completely overshadow traditional by 2026. Retail media is the biggest driver of digital. During the economic downturn, ad spending was drawn down the funnel, with retail media being the biggest beneficiary.