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US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.

The news: Amazon announced its Prime Day event will run from July 8 at 12:01 a.m. PDT through July 11, starting eight days earlier than last year and lasting twice as long as previous events. Our take: Amazon recognizes that while consumers have grown more selective about when and where they spend, many will still jump at the chance to save if they find compelling offers. By extending Prime Day’s duration, adding tech-driven shopping tools, and broadening its footprint across countries and third-party sites, Amazon is turning the event into an inescapable, large-scale retail moment. Even in a margin-squeezed environment, the visibility and sales potential of Prime Day may be too significant for sellers to pass up.

Samsung Ads expands its partnership with Magnite: The integration of Magnite Access boosts audience targeting and global campaign agility across Samsung TV Plus.

The company’s acquisition spree could help accelerate growth despite an uncertain economic climate

Trump’s tariff reprieve exacerbates uncertainty: The stop-and-start nature to the administration’s economic policy keeps retailers—and consumers—on edge.

International boycotts of US brands and travel could cost the economy up to $90 billion: Rising anti-American sentiment caused by Trump’s policies is making it harder for companies to operate at home and abroad.

72% of trade professionals worldwide are changing or considering changing their sourcing patterns to better manage potential tariffs, according to March 2025 data from Thomson Reuters.

It cancels a $1 billion US data center plan and pauses other developments as it braces for rising material costs and geopolitical pressures.

Commerce media is expanding in terms of numbers of players, but ad spend patterns remain the same.

Novartis is the latest Big Pharma company to invest billions in US production capacity: The largest drugmakers continue moving manufacturing to the US as the industry awaits Trump’s tariff plan for pharma. Generic drugmakers—which supply 90% of US prescriptions—won’t have the same maneuverability.

The new Premium Lite tier ditches extras like offline downloads but could lure budget-conscious users—challenging traditional streamers and YouTube’s own Premium model.

Best Buy faces stiff headwinds: The consumer electronics giant warned of higher prices due to President Trump’s new tariffs, which will likely crimp demand.

Russia, China, and Iran use deepfakes and social platforms to fuel doubts about election integrity and destabilize public trust.

Prada nears €1.5 billion deal to acquire Versace: The move would give the luxury company broader appeal as spending cools.

Amid dizzying policy unpredictability and a grab bag of unpleasant economic possibilities, precise ad spend forecasting is challenging. A scenarios-based approach can help clarify potential outcomes.

Despite uncertainty related to the economy and tariffs, US social network ad spending is expected to grow. AI offerings, social commerce, and lower-funnel investments will drive outlays.

Retail ecommerce sales worldwide will reach $6.419 trillion in 2025, growing 6.8% YoY—the slowest pace since 2022, per our February 2025 forecast.

Amazon plots Haul expansion in spite of de minimis crackdown: The retailer plans to launch its low-cost marketplace in Europe and Mexico.

Lululemon sees untapped potential in China’s smaller cities: The athleisure brand sees considerable growth opportunities as demand for health- and wellness-related products surges.

This follows a longer-term strategy of focusing its operations.

Netflix’s AI search test takes aim at content fatigue: By letting users search more intuitively, Netflix hopes to edge out rivals and helps viewers navigate its library.

YouTube’s 2.50 billion monthly active users worldwide outnumber those on all other digital platforms, according to our 2024 forecasts and Spotify data.

Furniture retail squeezed by high acquisition costs: Industry KPI data shows the sector at a disadvantage as economic uncertainty and tariffs drive up the cost of winning customers.

Search ad spending will not be immune to the economic upheaval caused by the US tariff regime. But it will be less susceptible than other spending areas.