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This year, we forecast retail sales of cosmetic and beauty products will reach $86.42 billion, a 7.6% increase from 2022. This increase will be driven in large part by in-store sales and luxury beauty categories. But going forward, technology may play a large role in driving online sales.

This year, we forecast US off-premise alcohol retail sales (i.e., alcohol purchased for at-home consumption) will grow by a modest 3.5% to $178.20 billion. This growth will accelerate slightly through 2027, driven by three areas of opportunity within the industry: ecommerce, customers willing to splurge on premium beverages, and at-home consumption trends.

The future of ecommerce is grocery. Historically, three categories led the US ecommerce market: apparel and accessories, computer and consumer electronics, and furniture and home furnishings. But in recent years, growth has been fueled by essential goods, including food and beverage items, personal care products, and household supplies. This shift will take grocery to the top of the four major ecommerce categories by 2026.

Amazon takes the bells and whistles out of its brick-and-mortar grocery experience: Amazon Fresh stores will no longer feature Just Walk Out as the retailer focuses on making its stores more inviting.

Alcohol ecommerce is growing. See how alcohol purchase trends are shifting, who鈥檚 buying, and how to reach new customers.

US cosmetic and beauty sales are expected to grow over 10% this year鈥攎ore than three times the 2.9% rate of the overall retail market, according to our forecast. It鈥檚 a sign of the 鈥渓ipstick effect,鈥� said our analyst Sky Canaves on our 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail鈥� podcast.

Gen Z women trust beauty influencers: Roughly eight in 10 Gen Z women shop for creators鈥� beauty and personal care recommendations.

Generative AI helps brands distill consumer insights to create personalized products while AR virtual try-on solutions give customers the ability to try before buying. Beauty brands like Ulta Beauty and Sephora are finding ways to draw consumers into their apps with exclusive content or services.

Though growth is slowing, digital grocery will continue to fuel overall ecommerce growth in the US. 鈥淕rowth is no longer driven by new adopters, but heavy digital grocery users,鈥� our analyst Blake Droesch said on a recent 鈥淩eimagining Retail鈥� podcast episode. Here鈥檚 how retailers like Instacart, Amazon, and Walmart can capitalize on frequent buyers.

Bud Light is no longer the US鈥� top-selling beer brand: While cost-conscious consumers turn to macro beers, AB InBev鈥檚 Dylan Mulvaney-related missteps are pushing them to other brands.

Amazon bets that Prime members will pay extra for free grocery delivery: The retailer is testing a grocery subscription add-on for $9.99 per month in its latest attempt to boost the appeal of its grocery business.

Gen Alpha鈥檚 obsession with skincare is driving beauty sales: Younger shoppers are gravitating toward premium brands and spending more time browsing the aisles at Sephora.

How shoppers buy groceries online is changing: As consumers grow more cost-conscious, pickup鈥檚 share of digital grocery orders rises.

We expect US cosmetic and beauty sales to grow 7.6%: While consumers are spending more selectively, they鈥檙e still willing to splurge on their favorite items.

Less than 19% of US digital grocery buyers used Amazon Fresh within the past year. Nearly all of them have also shopped on other digital grocery platforms.

Dupe culture powered e.l.f. Beauty to a 76% YoY sales increase last quarter: Gen Z鈥檚 favorite drugstore brand is reaping the rewards as consumers look for budget-friendly ways to stay on top of beauty trends.

Fewer than a third of US shoppers turn to department stores鈥� websites (31%) or brick-and-mortar locations (24%) when conducting beauty research, according to a May survey conducted by PowerReviews. In contrast, 71% turn to a specialty retailer鈥檚 website when researching new products.

The nonalcoholic beverage market has burst open, and many nonalcoholic spirits companies are pushing marketing beyond sobriety to overall health. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not trying to stop anyone from drinking,鈥� said Hebe Mills, marketing manager at Pentire Drinks. Instead, Mills says the alcohol-free brand is 鈥渕aking sure [our customers have] a really good-tasting alternative.鈥�

Brands and retailers are responding to shifts in alcohol consumption, particularly those of the growing Gen Z demographic as they establish habits and steer the industry鈥檚 future. With younger people drinking less and mid-level beverages waning in popularity, product diversification is becoming an even bigger business imperative.

Gen Zers value authenticity; male beauty consumers ask marketers to keep it simple; and Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) beauty consumers want representation. Here are tactics to reach three different beauty consumers across #beautytok.

On today's podcast episode, in our "Retail Me This, Retail Me That" segment, we discuss the differences between how US and UK consumers shop for groceries. Then, for "Pop-Up Rankings," we rank two grocery stores doing digital well, two taking an alternate approach, and why both can work. Join our analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts analysts Blake Droesch and Carina Perkins.

China鈥檚 retail sector will grow from government stimulus, retail鈥檚 genAI revolution will have a far-reaching impact, India鈥檚 quick commerce will heat up, China鈥檚 retailers will face pushback in the region, and Xiaohongshu will further establish itself.

The 10-year-olds have taken over Sephora in search of their favorite skincare and beauty brands, catching the eyes (and ire) of many TikTokers. But this trend has implications beyond angering older consumers, highlighting the purchasing power behind Gen Alpha and social media鈥檚 role in product discovery. Here鈥檚 what brands can learn.

US alcohol off-premises retail ecommerce sales will reach $6.85 billion this year, growing 6.1% over 2022, according to our forecast. Growth will reach double digits come 2026.

Key stat: 28.0% of Gen Z consumers have discovered grocery products via search engines, compared with 16.7% that have discovered products while browsing store shelves, per our forecast.