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US ad spend will hit $389.49 billion this year, up 9.5% over 2023, per our March 2024 forecast. Major factors driving that growth include political ad spend, connected TV (CTV), and retail media. This year US political ad spend will reach $12.32 billion, up 28.7% over the previous presidential election year in 2020, per our December 2023 forecast.

Q1 has been a mixed bag for marketers. Ad spend grew in January and February, hitting double digits for the first time since March 2022. But many tech and retail companies were hit with layoffs as companies tightened ad spend. IBM, TikTok, and Google all slashed their marketing and advertising teams. On earnings calls, Nike鈥檚 finance chief said the company is planning for a 鈥渟ubdued macro outlook鈥� and Paramount mentioned 鈥渟oftness in the global advertising market.鈥�

US linear TV ad spend is shrinking (8.0% YoY) as connected TV (CTV) ad spend grows (21.2% YoY). This year, US CTV ad spend will total $25.09 billion while linear will total $61.31 billion.

We downgraded our 2023 US social network ad spending forecast by $16.21 billion鈥攖he biggest reduction of any channel鈥攁s difficulties abound. Why? The impact of Apple鈥檚 and other privacy changes has shocked the system. Digital ad targeting and measurement have been changed, permanently.

We鈥檙e showing some strength in retail ecommerce thanks to our internal assumption that the US is going to successfully achieve something of a soft landing, that inflation is going to get, by the second half, somewhat under control, and that fears of a recession are going to recede at least somewhat in the US market, leading to a very marginal rebound in the outlook for ecommerce 辞惫别谤补濒濒.鈥�.

YouTube has expanded its affiliate shopping capabilities and eligibility for the YouTube Partner Program in order to maintain the strength of its creator relationships. But livestream commerce may factor more into YouTube鈥檚 future.

Out-of-home (OOH) campaigns in big cities need diversity in OOH formats so more of the target audience sees the ads without advertisers necessarily spending more, according to Brian Rappaport, CEO of OOH agency Quan Media Group.

Amazon sees a big opportunity in beauty: The retail giant is hosting the Summer Beauty Haul sales event to capture 蝉丑辞辫辫别谤蝉鈥� attention, boost retail media spend, and drive sales.

US digital media consumption and consumer spending growth are at a standstill. 鈥淚t's just getting really competitive to reach today's consumers,鈥� our analyst Jeremy Goldman said on an episode of the 鈥淏ehind the Numbers: Daily鈥� podcast. Here鈥檚 what advertisers need to know about the latest trends in digital, including fierce competition for ad dollars to ecommerce having room to grow.

Target Circle members drive nearly five times more shopping trips than regular guests and spend five times more on average. Individuals are four times more likely to trust Target's ads over brands they don't have relationships with, according to one internal study. Roundel campaigns featuring Target Circle promotions saw over 30% higher return on ad spend in 2023.

TikTok鈥檚 potential ban isn鈥檛 putting brands off TikTok Shop: The platform鈥檚 sales potential is driving companies like Rare Beauty and Tarte Cosmetics to deepen their investment.

Gen Xers spend their time on YouTube and Facebook, taking a utilitarian approach to digital channels by adopting digital platforms that make a task faster and easier. They use YouTube for education and entertainment and Facebook for communication with family.

Off-site retail media network ad spend will rise by 61.5% this year to reach $10.64 billion in the US, per our forecast. With third-party cookies (eventually) going away, we expect to see more such partnerships that allow publishers to leverage retailer first-party data on publisher sites.

According to the World Federation of Advertisers and Ebiquity, a third of major advertisers polled in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa said they would likely cut their ad spending in 2023. Prediction. Advertisers will look for ROI above all. Budgets will be scrutinized in exhausting detail. Campaign planners should ensure they can defend their proposals.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss how much Amazon's new shopping chatbot can move the needle, what Planet Fitness' out-of-home ad network looks like, becoming a digital mannequin to see what clothes look like on you, whether minutelong soap operas will catch on, who the smartest people in the world are, and more. Tune into the discussion with vice president of content Suzy Davidkhanian, analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf, and vice president of Briefings Stephanie Taglianetti.

I think looking at the categories where our consumers are deciding to purchase a make e-commerce purchase, we have a forecast of the change is most great and our food and beverage in the consumer products category.

TikTok is supposed to be this big threat to Facebook and Instagram, et cetera, but really the only way TikTok is going to achieve its potential, is if it also draws in an equivalent amount of advertising revenue or turns itself into retail media hell scape via this e-commerce push.

Total social ad spending for CPG will hit $13.2 billion, ranking it second after retail. Approximately 31.2% of CPG鈥檚 digital ad budget is allocated to social networks. CPG and retail are powering social ad spending growth: The two categories made up 62.7% of new social ad dollars from 2022 to 2023.

Retail media will stay ahead of connected TV (CTV) in US ad spending and close in on traditional TV this year, according to our forecast. Search overall, including paid search on retail media networks, will reach $108.48 billion in 2023.

The apparel and accessories category will increase its share of retail ad spend over the next few years, while other sectors will reel in their spending, according to our US Retail Industry Digital Ad Spending 2023 report. Use this chart:. Track US retail digital ad spend over time. More like this:. Why retail media standardization may take a while.

Black Friday is a critical day for ecommerce, with 2022 sales growing 14% vs. last year, and without accurate data, some advertisers quickly ramped up ad spend to meet sales goals.

They really offer that branding and point of inspiration for brands now that sits up a funnel, and we can offer that in the affiliate channel capacity. But in this clock model, we want to go further and say, we are no longer just driving traffic to a site, and then leave it up to the e-commerce store to convert it.

US retail media ad spend will reach $59.61 billion this year, according to our October 2023 forecast. 18.5% of retail media network ad spend is coming from off-site advertising, and that share is growing, per our forecast. With retail media gaining so much of the digital ad landscape, it鈥檚 no surprise ad giants like Google and Microsoft are building out their own retail media tools. Use this chart:.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss why TikTok might not actually be a social media platform, how much young people use it to search for things, and whether TikTok Shop is ruining TikTok. "In Other News," we talk about the battle between Threads and X (formerly Twitter), as well as whether Snap distancing itself from social media will work and start a trend. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Jasmine Enberg and director of Briefings Jeremy Goldman.