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TMN ad spending will represent a fraction of total digital ad spending. TMN ad spending as a share of digital ad spending is set to increase modestly, from 0.7% in 2024 to 0.8% in 2026. While commerce media will continue to be dominated by ad spending on RMNs, TMNs make up a distant second tier, ahead of ad spending within the still-nascent financial media network (FMN) cohort.

A challenging market: With sports-betting ad dollars shrinking, platforms may preemptively distance themselves from gambling鈥檚 volatility and potential to cause gambling addiction and harm. 蘑菇AV 2.5 million US adults (1%) meet the criteria for a severe gambling problem in a given year.

These companies dominate traditional ad spending, which amounted to 24.2% of total ad spending in 2024. Their digital arms didn鈥檛 compete well with the tech giants initially. But in recent years, growing digital video and streaming audio ad inventory has strengthened their digital revenue prospects.

From 2024 to 2026, FMN ad spend will grow at a breakneck 106.3% compound annual growth rate, per our forecast. While that will account for only 0.4% of US digital ad spending in 2026, this growth reflects FIs鈥� eagerness to monetize their first-party data. Click here to view our full forecast for US FMN ad spending. Ad revenues are looking increasingly attractive for FIs:.

Under the moderate tariff scenario, total ad spending would reach approximately $407 billion, with only the heavy scenario triggering an actual year-over-year decline in total ad spending. "Even in a heavy tariff scenario, top-line digital ad spending, looking at it from a year-over-year growth standpoint, would still grow 4.5% year-over-year," said our analyst Oscar Orozco. Digital channel divide.

Programmatic digital display is no exception to the ad spending downturn that has sent ripples through our forecast. As marketers scrutinize their investments, social networks are losing share of the programmatic pie while CTV and retail media drive growth.

By 2028, overall off-site ad spending will have increased by more than 5 points of share in retail media and will represent more than $25 billion in ad spending. Two-thirds (68%) of advertisers working with RMNs are already leveraging retail media.

The big picture: The digital advertising industry faces a tough 2025, with slowing growth across digital media consumption, ecommerce, and ad spending compared to pre-pandemic and pandemic periods.

From 2024 to 2026, FMN ad spend will grow at a breakneck compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.3%, per our forecast. While that will account for only 0.4% of total 2026 US digital ad spending, the growth rate reflects FIs鈥� eagerness to secure their share of ad dollars by monetizing their first-party data. Ad revenues are looking increasingly attractive for FIs:.

Ad Spending 2024 (蘑菇AV subscription required). Note: Data was provided to 蘑菇AV by iSpot.TV.

Nearly half (45%) of advertisers plan to reduce overall ad spend due to financial constraints from tariffs, according to February 2025 data from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). Nearly three-quarters of advertisers expect ad budgets to shrink less than 10%. However, 22% believe ad budgets could decline by 11% to 20%. This will affect how much ad spend flows into retail media.

Between the lines: As tariffs threaten ad budgets, it鈥檚 crucial for advertisers to prove the worth of their retail media campaigns. 94% of advertisers are concerned about the impact of tariffs on ad spending, according to a recent survey from the IAB.

Even if other markets can offer a reprieve from potential hits to US ad spending, it will likely take time for them to ramp up to comparable levels.

CTV will rank No. 2 for ad spending growth. Retail media is the only breakout we forecast that we expect to outperform CTV in ad spending growth. CTV will outperform other digital advertising categories (e.g., formats, devices, channels). Retail media and CTV are increasingly overlapping. CTV鈥檚 ad spending growth is, in part, a result of retail media鈥檚 strength.

Last week, YouTube reported that ad revenues were up 13% YoY to $8.7 billion and connected TV (CTV) views grew 130%, demonstrating the platform鈥檚 massive potential for advertisers. Between Shorts, YouTube鈥檚 flagship short videos that competes with TikTok and Instagram Reels, and its foray into CTV, YouTube is central to digital advertising. Here are five charts demonstrating just how big YouTube鈥檚 reach is.

Although still a small share of ad spend, in-store retail media is expanding rapidly. Retailers like CVS and 7-Eleven are using digital screens and audio ads to engage shoppers closer to the point of purchase.

As brands shift ad spend to commerce-driven channels, Pinterest鈥檚 ability to turn inspiration into action makes it a more valuable platform for retailers. International monetization is the next frontier. While global user growth is strong, Pinterest still earns most of its revenues from North America.