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The rationale: Lowe鈥檚 is making a play for retail media ad dollars at a critical moment in the channel鈥檚 trajectory; we expect retail media ad spending will surpass linear TV ad spending next year and exceed all of traditional media ad spending combined in 2026.

To turn things around, the retailer recently refreshed its branding and introduced a number of new ways to keep shoppers engaged across its digital and physical channels. Best Buy鈥檚 app now features a home page with tailored content, a 鈥淒iscover鈥� tab where consumers can find new tech, and a 鈥沦丑辞辫 with Videos鈥� section with a curated assortment of videos.

Our forecast for ad spending in retail media shows the category in a period of massive growth: up 25.9% next year, more than four times the amount of spend compared with five years ago. Retail media will have share of more than 1 in 5 digital ad dollars spent in Canada next year. Persistent ecommerce growth is driving retail media.

OTA websites creating audience segments for on- or off-site advertising based on signal data, e.g., retailers or brands promoting luggage and swimwear to shoppers who are researching and planning summer family vacations. Travel companies can offer advertisers the chance to reach consumers across multiple digital touchpoints and captive audiences.

Study finds 57% of streamers choose AVOD tiers: Consumers seek affordable alternatives amid subscription price hikes.

As the retail media industry evolves, marketers are embracing new formats such as open web, social media, and streaming TV to reach customers earlier in their buying journey and increase brand recognition. To accomplish this, we鈥檒l see retailers form collaborative alliances with social media companies, streaming platforms, and publishers.

German grocery retailer Lidl launched a TikTok Shop pop-up in the UK, marking one of the first major grocery retailers to experiment with TikTok鈥檚 ecommerce capabilities.

The store is no longer the only place where consumers can discover and shop for consumer packaged goods (CPG) products. Younger generations are finding products via search and social media, while Amazon Prime Day offers shoppers the opportunity to stock up on essentials for less.

In terms of the shift in ad dollars, the meteoric rise of retail media today parallels the mobile advertising revolution over a decade ago.

Amazon鈥檚 play: Amazon鈥檚 ecommerce channel ad revenues, which are included within retail media spend, will approach $30 billion this year, accounting for 76.2% of all ecommerce channel ad spending in the US, according to our forecast.

The travel game: Travel ad spend growth is cooling slightly this year after two post-pandemic years of explosive travel spending that had airlines racing for brand recognition. We forecast that US ad industry media spending will grow 5.3% to $9.86 billion this year, significantly slower than 2023鈥檚 16.8% growth and 2022鈥檚 23%.

Netflix reports 15% revenue growth: Its ad-supported tier and live sports drove success despite slowing subscriber gains.

The pandemic-driven boom in impressions slowed down, prompting a dramatic pullback in ad spending that many were unprepared for. But out of the downturn, new trends and leaders are beginning to emerge. Don鈥檛 be fooled by the panic: While slower than expected, ad spending still grew in 2022, , and will continue to grow moving into 2023.

In Germany, investments in digital advertising will be cautious, reflected by an overall ad spending growth rate of just 3.1% this year. The German economy is in a tight spot, with a high risk of recession, causing individual industries to tread lightly. Retail spending will dwarf all other industries.

On-site display ad spending鈥攚hat we refer to as ecommerce channel display ad spending in our forecasts鈥攚ill climb to $9.98 billion in 2024, then grow at least 24% YoY every year through 2028. But off-site display ad outlays will grow faster. Until now, retail media display ad spending has largely been concentrated on retailer sites.

Google and Meta鈥檚 combined share of the US digital ad market dropped below 50% in 2022, and in just a few years that figure will be down to 43.0%. The triopoly is losing share now, as well; Amazon鈥檚 ascent will not be fast enough to offset the weakness of the other two giants.

Google鈥檚 share of ad spend will fall below 50% while genAI disrupts search. Amazon will keep rising in 2024 thanks to its dominant position in product search. But chatbot-powered search features within TikTok, Snapchat, and Meta will also pull users, and OpenAI continues to refine ChatGPT with new features. To view the full forecast, click here. Digital wallets are firmly set as commerce enablers.

China鈥檚 influence will shake up online shopping. Temu, TikTok Shop, and Shein have captured a critical mass of consumer attention. Using innovative shopping experiences that are app-based, entertaining, and highly deal-driven, these ecommerce players with Chinese roots are gaining ground on legacy retailers. These companies are disrupting how retail has typically worked.

Many researchers have argued that brands can increase their share of voice by maintaining ad spending during a recession. If revenues are low, a CFO may feel the only option is to cut ad spending. But there is an opportunity for those who keep spending. During the pandemic, brands that resumed advertising saw strong ROI. Expect that trend to repeat itself in future crises.