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The over-the-top (OTT) streaming landscape is rapidly becoming as crowded as the early days of cable TV. It is vital that marketers understand the scale, reach, and prospects of the various players in the industry.

Thank you to everyone of course, for taking time to hang out with us and listen in. We hope to see you tomorrow for the Behind the Numbers Weekly Listen, an 蘑菇AV video podcast.

NBA lands historic media deals: New agreements with Disney, NBC, and Amazon promise expanded coverage and increased accessibility for fans.

US ad spending is projected to grow 6.8% next year, surpassing $400 billion, according to 蘑菇AV鈥檚 forecast. Despite robust ad spending growth, AI tools, advancements in attribution, and cautious consumer behavior will add complexity for the latter half of 2024.

KEY STAT: Over a five-year period, CTV time spent among US adults will more than double, from about 1 hour per day in 2019 to over 2 hours per day in 2024, per our forecast. Viewers are spending more time with CTV than with desktops and laptops. For the first time, we have forecast US time spent with CTV.

For NBCU, the Olympic Games are likely to provide a significant boost through July and August, especially since the Paris-hosted event is the first in several years with favorable broadcast timing for US audiences. However, Peacock is struggling: The company posted strong revenues but lost 500,000 subscribers in Q2.

Netflix: Advertising has been slow going for Netflix: It likely won鈥檛 crack $1 billion in US ad revenues until next year. However, Netflix still has the potential to become one of the world鈥檚 largest video ad businesses. During its virtual upfront in May, the company reported that it had about 5 million global subscribers on its ad plan.

Adults will spend more than 7.5 hours on connected devices per day in the US this year, up an hour from 2020. Over half of that digital time spent will be on mobile devices, while another quarter will be on rapidly growing connected TVs (CTVs). Key Question: Where are US consumers spending their online time, and what does that mean for advertisers?

Team USA? Oscar Orozco (02:30):. USA? Ethan Cramer-Flood (02:31):. It is the U.S. indeed with four. So congratulations to Oscar. Oscar Orozco (02:36):. Thank you very much. Marcus Johnson (02:37):. I'm happy for you. Not congratulations to Paul Werner, who is an Argentinian fan and they won the Copa America and of course the World Cup.

In fact, almost half of US agency and brand marketers who use AI or ML are leveraging it for targeting and measurement use cases, per Advertiser Perceptions. We鈥檒l see more ad tech vendors refocus their go-to-market strategy around AI as the Google-imposed deadline approaches. Here are some ideal testing grounds for AI and ML solutions:. Finding lookalike audiences without deterministic data.

KEY STAT: Despite small spikes in even-numbered years, US TV ad spending will track negatively through 2027鈥攁nd likely thereafter. The traditional TV ad market is flickering out. From 2008 through its peak in 2018, US TV advertising was a growth story, posting YoY increases most years except during the economic upheaval that started in late 2008 and continued throughout 2009.

Our forecast for digital video viewers in the US, including subscription and ad-supported OTT video viewers. Plus, third-party data points on how many streaming services consumers are likely to subscribe to.

KEY STAT: US upfront TV ad spending will fall during the 2023鈥�2024 season on a YoY basis and relative to our previous forecast, as the industry continues to veer toward digital programming. Upfront TV ad spending is trending downward. US upfront TV ad spending will fall by 3.6% to $18.64 billion for the 2023鈥�2024 TV season, a downward revision of 5.0% from our previous forecast.

蘑菇AV 4% of US households watch TV only on mobile devices, according to the Advertising Research Foundation (ARF). This behavior is particularly prevalent among young adults and is quite common outside the US as well.

Retail media is the second-fastest-growing major ad format in the US. It trails only CTV, and by a small margin. On a compound annual basis, retail media ad spending will grow by 21.7% from 2022 through 2024, compared with 22.5% for CTV. The two fastest-growing US digital ad businesses this year will be retail media networks.

Search will account for just under two-thirds (65.8%) of US retail media ad spending in 2023 and inch down about a point per year, to 63.4% by 2025. Advertisers are eagerly spending in retail media鈥檚 off-site channels, including connected TV (CTV).

We break down these issues in our new report 鈥淯厂 CTV Time Spent vs. Ad Spending 2023.鈥�.

CTV broadly, and subscription over-the-top (sub OTT) specifically, are doing extremely well, but life is tough for individual players because the competition is so fierce. Dozens of service providers will vie for a slice of this year鈥檚 $26.92 billion in spending.

For us, we are very data-driven. We do a lot of forecasting of viewers on different platforms. So the idea that that threshold has increased so much implies that services are not going to stick around unless they combine. So it's just a very simple math problem at that point. So that's what I...

For additional forecasts on time spent averaged across the US adult population, regardless of whether they use a particular medium, see our website's forecast module. Sources. Meta. Snap Inc. US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics.

After more than doubling its US ad revenues last year, TikTok will continue to siphon market share with the fastest growth rate of any platform鈥攂y a large margin. Marketers should recognize that:. TikTok is now a must-buy. That鈥檚 especially true if the goal is to reach younger consumers. Its penetration among US consumers ages 12 to 24 is outdone only by Snapchat.

US adults will spend an average of 40 minutes per day watching social videos in 2023, we forecast. That amounts to more than 5% of daily media time. But US adult viewers will spend more time watching Netflix than users will spend on either TikTok or YouTube through 2024. Netflix also has a sizable lead in total viewers.

But only about half of US digital media professionals polled this past May were familiar with privacy regulations, per data from Integral Ad Science and YouGov. Predictions. 2023 will come and go without a federal privacy law in the US. Instead, the ad industry will deal with legislation state by state, on top of various international regulations. The era of 鈥渁ccept all cookies鈥� buttons will end.

The average US household added one to two connected devices between H1 2021 and H1 2022, per Plume data, paving the way for increased integration. The segment is small in the US, but ripe for growth:. 1 in 5 smartwatch users now make payments with those devices, according to our estimates.