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Despite slow US adoption and economic downturn affecting advertising, TikTok鈥檚 1 billion daily users and Instagram鈥檚 exit from live shopping present opportunities for growth.

Temu, the recent entrant to the US ecommerce market, has taken the ecommerce world by storm since its September 2022 launch. The China-based etailer went from zero to 44.5 million unique visitors by December 2022, according to Comscore鈥攁 virtually unprecedented growth in traffic in just four months.

At least 10% of US ecommerce orders were returned each week from last November through mid-January, according to Salesforce. The return rate was as high as 16% in some weeks, a significant increase over the previous holiday season.

The number of US shoppable media buyers is expected to jump 5.7% this year to 94.2 million, according to our forecast. Our forecast defines US shoppable media buyers as digital consumers who, after engaging with online media content that has immediate purchase options, take actions like clicking through a call-to-action link on a livestreaming video or scanning a QR code on a connected TV.

TikTok sister app Douyin is a livestream behemoth in China, where nearly 40% of internet users also engage in livestream shopping, according to our forecast. But in the US, the format hasn鈥檛 caught on in the same way.

Becoming Amazon鈥檚 strategic payments partner in the US, Canada, and Europe can help Stripe bolster its processing business.

On today's episode, in our "Retail Me This, Retail Me That" segment, we discuss how many Americans have a mobile wallet, which ones are most popular, and what's happening with retailers' branded wallets. Then for "Red-Hot Retail," our analysts give us four spicy predictions about the future of mobile wallets. Join our analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts analysts Sky Canaves and Jaime Toplin.

The US online resale market is back on the rise this year, following a 6.6% decrease in 2022, according to our forecast. The trend shows no signs of slowing down over the next few years, with ecommerce resale volume surpassing $100 billion in 2026.

Social platforms are gaining in search: More US consumers are researching products on TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram, which could bode ill for Amazon and Google.

On today's episode, in our "Retail Me This, Retail Me That" segment, we talk about what the leading retailers' Q4 performances tell us about the state of retail. Then for "Pop-Up Rankings: Earnings Awards Edition," we rank the two best and the two most concerning retailer performances of late. Join our analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts director of Briefings Jeremy Goldman and analyst Zak Stambor.

While some were skeptical of Temu鈥檚 staying power, the app鈥檚 low prices and social-first marketing strategy seem to be resonating with consumers. Opening its platform to US sellers could bring competition for Temu at a time when consumer perception is flagging.

Nearly one-third of US consumers told The NPD Group last December that they plan to travel more in 2023. Some are already making good on their plans: In February, spending on lodging jumped by 42.7% and airline expenses by 15.6% YoY, per Mastercard SpendingPulse.

While our forecast projects the retailer鈥檚 US Amazon Business division will account for just 2.3% of US B2B ecommerce site sales this year, that鈥檚 still a $43.05 billion business, which is why it is looking to expand into more international markets in Europe and elsewhere.

US ecommerce back-to-school and holiday growth trends are usually pretty similar, but this year, growth will diverge. US ecommerce back-to-school and holiday spending growth were within 1 percentage point of each other in both 2020 and 2021, and closer to 4 percentage points apart in 2022, during a holiday season impacted by inflation, supply chain issues, and geopolitical concerns. This year, we forecast a US back-to-school ecommerce growth rate of 1.5%, slower than our forecast 11.3% holiday retail ecommerce growth.

Shein鈥檚 efforts to woo US lawmakers, NRF fall on deaf ears: The fast-fashion giant could shift its IPO to London as it tries to head off supply chain scrutiny.

US grocery ecommerce sales will grow 17.4% in 2024 to total $219.04 billion, according to our forecast. Meanwhile, UK grocery ecommerce sales will grow only 5.1% to total $37.06 billion in 2024. 鈥淎t the end of the day, consumers in the US enjoy the conveniences of delivery, but they鈥檙e not necessarily willing to pay an exorbitant fee,鈥� said our analyst Blake Droesch, emphasizing the perceived value of Walmart+ and Amazon Prime memberships to these shoppers.

Amazon Prime will make up 53.1% of US paid retail membership fee revenues this year, according to our estimates.

Retailers hold firm on live shopping despite sluggish US adoption: TikTok Shop made the format a cornerstone of its ecommerce strategy, while Macy鈥檚 and Poshmark see early progress.

Close to a third of US digital buyers will purchase from a company located outside the country in 2024, for a total of 71.8 million cross-border ecommerce buyers, per our forecast.

Despite the word 鈥渞ecession鈥� hanging in the air, US retailers had an okay Q4 in 2022. But some recurring themes persisted: Shoppers pulled back on discretionary spending, opted against home renovations, and generally avoided high prices. Here鈥檚 a look at how those trends affected earnings.

This year, we forecast US off-premise alcohol retail sales (i.e., alcohol purchased for at-home consumption) will grow by a modest 3.5% to $178.20 billion. This growth will accelerate slightly through 2027, driven by three areas of opportunity within the industry: ecommerce, customers willing to splurge on premium beverages, and at-home consumption trends.

US livestreaming commerce sales could reach $50 billion in 2023 and potentially account for more than 5% of total ecommerce in the country by 2026, per Coresight Research as cited by CNBC. With help from platforms like TikTok Shop, TalkShopLive, and Firework, brands should start experimenting with livestream commerce as adoption grows, especially among younger consumers.

Digital grocery will become the largest ecommerce category by 2026, according to our US Digital Grocery 2024 report. To grow their share of digital grocery sales, brands need to understand what motivates consumers to buy groceries online, how the digital grocery experience can be improved, and where growth opportunities lie.

One-third (33%) of US adults expected to begin back-to-school shopping by early July, per a March 2024 survey by LTK. Another 36% expected to begin shopping in July, which isn鈥檛 surprising given the broad array of July sales events hosted by Amazon, Walmart, Kohl鈥檚, and TikTok Shop.

That comes as US retail marketplace ecommerce sales are expected to grow by 10.2% YoY in 2023, according to our March 2023 forecast. Bennett emphasized that executive-level support played an important role in creating the marketplace. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really easy to abandon things 鈥� you have to have that perseverance to say, 鈥榃e will get this done, we are going to invest in it,鈥欌�� she said.