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The opportunity: In-store retail media makes up a small鈥攂ut rapidly growing鈥攑iece of total retail media spend, as advertisers look to take advantage of retailers鈥� large in-store audiences and reach shoppers closer to the point of purchase. Advertisers allocated 18% of their retail media budgets to in-store media this year, up from 7% in 2022, per a Bain survey.

While the lion鈥檚 share of that money will go to Amazon鈥攚ith Walmart as a distant second鈥攔etailers that can offer brands the ability to reach new or incremental audiences, access their first-party data, and deliver strong return on ad spend have a better chance of standing out in a crowded field.

The rationale: Lowe鈥檚 is making a play for retail media ad dollars at a critical moment in the channel鈥檚 trajectory; we expect retail media ad spending will surpass linear TV ad spending next year and exceed all of traditional media ad spending combined in 2026.

Expect to see ad spend follow that trend, Mitchell-Wolf said. Watch the full 蘑菇AV Summit here. This was originally featured in the 蘑菇AV Daily newsletter. For more marketing insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.

Target noticed a 鈥減ronounced鈥� sales dip the week before and after the event, showing how consumers held back on shopping until they knew items would be on sale. The retail media implication: Amazon Prime Day, and its competitor events, are creating a new pattern of consumer behavior where shoppers will hold out on their purchases鈥攆rom everyday essentials to big ticket items鈥攗ntil they go on sale.

Amazon鈥檚 play: Amazon鈥檚 ecommerce channel ad revenues, which are included within retail media spend, will approach $30 billion this year, accounting for 76.2% of all ecommerce channel ad spending in the US, according to our forecast.

On-site display ad spending鈥攚hat we refer to as ecommerce channel display ad spending in our forecasts鈥攚ill climb to $9.98 billion in 2024, then grow at least 24% YoY every year through 2028. But off-site display ad outlays will grow faster. Until now, retail media display ad spending has largely been concentrated on retailer sites.

鈥淎蝉 shopping capabilities expand on platforms like social media and CTV, commerce is becoming more connected to media.鈥�. This was originally featured in the Retail Media Weekly newsletter. For more marketing insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.

As the retail media industry evolves, marketers are embracing new formats such as open web, social media, and streaming TV to reach customers earlier in their buying journey and increase brand recognition. To accomplish this, we鈥檒l see retailers form collaborative alliances with social media companies, streaming platforms, and publishers.

Retailers and the tech firms powering some of their RMNs are racing to give ad buyers access to more off-site inventory in formats ranging from CTV to digital out-of-home to in-store. But on-site has plenty of headroom left, as this new data from our forecast shows.

The store is no longer the only place where consumers can discover and shop for consumer packaged goods (CPG) products. Younger generations are finding products via search and social media, while Amazon Prime Day offers shoppers the opportunity to stock up on essentials for less.

The insight: Retailers鈥� efforts to boost their high-margin retail media businesses are complicating their ability to negotiate with brand partners, particularly as they push for price concessions to alleviate the pressure on inflation-weary shoppers.

That鈥檚 why grocers such as Ahold Delhaize, parent of banners such as Giant and Stop & Shop, see massive potential to use their troves of first-party data to better monetize their stores. That said, it is worth noting that in-store retail media is in its early days, and the channel remains a tiny piece of the overall retail media pie.

Talent hunt: As brands focus on retail media network ad spending that provides better omnichannel customer targeting, tracking, and improved performance measurement and campaign attribution, retailers need to fill their skills gaps by hiring talent in ad tech, martech, and growth marketing, according to Dan Goldsmith, managing director at Three Pillars Recruiting.

With the rise of digital ad channels like connected TV and retail media, there鈥檚 a lot of emphasis on making every ad and consumer touchpoint shoppable. Ad formats with direct calls to action help drive conversions and increase ROI. But brand equity can get left out of the conversation when we focus on performance marketing in isolation. Every ad should perform and provide some sort of measurable impact, but each ad is also vital for telling a brand鈥檚 story, even at the bottom of the funnel where marketers are more focused on driving conversions.

Retail media is now being adapted by companies in other verticals: Financial services and travel companies are among those launching commerce media networks in a bid to monetize their first-party data.

Google and Meta鈥檚 combined share of the US digital ad market dropped below 50% in 2022, and in just a few years that figure will be down to 43.0%. The triopoly is losing share now, as well; Amazon鈥檚 ascent will not be fast enough to offset the weakness of the other two giants.

The retailer is beta-testing Sponsored Display lead generation ads for businesses that don鈥檛 currently sell on its marketplace, enabling them to capture shopper intent across Amazon鈥檚 store as well as thousands of apps and websites. Such initiatives will help Amazon grow ad revenues by 24.7% this year to $41.95 billion.

Ad spending growth is tapering off, but major changes are coming to the market, including the deprecation of third-party identifiers, a new era in TV ad measurement, and growing use of AI in advertising.

Many researchers have argued that brands can increase their share of voice by maintaining ad spending during a recession. If revenues are low, a CFO may feel the only option is to cut ad spending. But there is an opportunity for those who keep spending. During the pandemic, brands that resumed advertising saw strong ROI. Expect that trend to repeat itself in future crises.

Why it matters: Instacart鈥檚 retail media growth relies on its ability to help advertisers reach shoppers on other channels, particularly those鈥攍ike YouTube鈥攖hat are important avenues for product research and discovery.

We expect RMN off-site ad spending in the US to total $10.64 billion this year and to surpass ecommerce channel display ad spending for the first time. In the past year, middlemen with scaled web publisher penetration鈥攊ncluding TripleLift, Criteo, and Button鈥攈ave launched solutions that allow retail media advertisers to put display ads on publishers鈥� sites.