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Albertsons, Costco, and Instacart are enhancing their retail media offerings. TikTok Shop reached a $1 million livestream. And three-time consecutive first place winner Walmart is developing immersive ways to shop and catering product lines to younger shoppers. Here鈥檚 our Unofficial Most Interesting Retailers List for June 2024.

Despite 23.2% growth in US omnichannel retail media ad spend YoY, ecommerce still accounts for just 15.6% of all retail sales, according to our forecast. That figure dips to 7.1% when it comes to food and beverage. 鈥淎 lot of CPG [consumer packaged goods] companies, specifically, [we] don鈥檛 have transactional data at our fingertips. We don鈥檛 have a lot of D2C specifically with our brands,鈥� said Han.

Summer is on the way, and the advertising landscape has already changed significantly since the start of the year. We checked in on data surrounding the biggest trends, including AI search (which is happening whether consumers want it or not), a TikTok ban (no one knows but be prepared), retail media (it鈥檚 exploding), and more.

Consumers shop differently across categories. Most US adults want quick in-store and online grocery shopping experiences, according to November 2023 data from Kearney. However, when it comes to shopping for clothes and shoes, they prefer to browse a bit, particularly online.

Retail media and connected TV (CTV) are like peanut butter and chocolate, Danielle DeLauro, executive vice president at the Video Advertising Bureau, said at Advertising Week New York last week. 鈥淭ogether, there鈥檚 nothing better.鈥�

Ecommerce makes up an increasing share of the retail pie: In 2024, nearly 3 in 4 (76.3%) US resale dollars will come from ecommerce. It鈥檚 increasingly important for retailers to own their own resale market, which brands are doing by teaming up with resale companies like thredUP, Poshmark, and eBay.

Our newsletter team has already made a number of advertising and retail predictions, but now it鈥檚 time to combine the two. Retail media is still on the rise in the US (growing by a projected 28.6% this year), but competition is getting fierce. From commerce opportunities to consolidation, here鈥檚 what we expect to see from retail media in 2024.

Walmart in April launched a digital presence redesign that aims to push shoppers to discover (and buy) items that they may not have been seeking. Our US Walmart Retail Ecommerce Sales Forecast expects the retailer鈥檚 online sales will grow 10.9% this year.

Layering ad dollars on top of that is a smart revenue driver for Costco. In-store retail media is still in its infancy, accounting for only 0.7% of US omnichannel retail media spend this year, according to our March 2024 forecast. But it鈥檚 growing fast as players like Costco recognize the potential.

It also debuted its newest ad product Advantage+ Shopping Campaigns (ASC) precariously close to the end of the year. Early returns show ASC delivering significant efficiency.

In 2027, 1 in 5 CTV ad dollars will be retail media spend. CTV needs retail media鈥檚 data. The third-party cookie is going away this year, which means CTV needs retailer data to target ads efficiently and effectively.

Following performance measurement was the most important factor in allocating retail media spend, according to US consumer packaged goods (CPG) manufacturers, per December 2023 data from Skai and Path to Purchase Institute.

Ad dollars could branch out to other categories. While social media ad spend slows, retail media ad spend is climbing. Retail media could indirectly benefit from a TikTok ban, according to Insider Intelligence principal analyst Jasmine Enberg. Whether TikTok gets banned or not, advertisers should look not only at where users are spending their time, but at where ad spend goes the furthest.

Getting its costs in check: Amazon has been on an ongoing push under CEO Andy Jassy to focus squarely on its core businesses鈥攍ike ecommerce, grocery, advertising, and AWS鈥攁nd aggressively cut costs wherever possible.

The impact of third-party cookie deprecation goes beyond changes to ad targeting and tracking. As the industry moves away from these identifiers, new challenges and trends have cropped up: IP addresses may be more difficult to access, retail media as an addressable channel is growing, and there鈥檚 greater focus on frequent media mix modeling (MMM) adjustments.

The majority (83.7%) of US retail sales take place in physical stores, per our forecast. The retailers that can infuse digitally forward strategies into their in-store experiences are more likely to win over consumer dollars. Here are five charts on why the in-store experience is so key to retailers鈥� success and how they can use technology to create a more seamless, engaging shopping experience.

Interest rates are rising. The housing market is cooling. Combine those factors with two years of home improvement projects during the COVID-19 pandemic and outlooks don鈥檛 look great for home improvement retailers. This has led them to focus on other revenue streams, including advertising, professional services, and loyalty programs.

The argument: As the off-site era of retail media ad spending matures, driven by aggregators like Criteo, The Trade Desk, Skai, and Pacvue, the influx of ad dollars is inhibiting incentive for standardization, argued Willens. 鈥淭hey've got at least a year before the pressure to get to a standard rises up,鈥� he said.

Amazon鈥檚 new shopping event goes head-to-head with similar Lowe鈥檚 and Home Depot promotions, which align with their busiest season for home improvement and furnishing sales. Prime Days have been huge in driving retail media ad spend, and its Big Spring Sale will be no different.

Bigger and better: US ad spend on off-site retail media will grow 61.5% to reach $10.64 billion this year, per our forecast. That number will more than double over the next four years, reaching $28.05 billion by 2028, making up over a fifth (21.8%) of total retail media network ad spend.

Google found guilty of anti-competitive practices: Court ruling challenges market dominance through exclusive agreements and payments to Apple.

Shopping behaviors of younger people are more malleable, and people under 25 years old account for more than a quarter of CTV users. Some 90% of Gen Z adults in the US use the internet and TV at the same time鈥攎ore than any older generation鈥攕o advertisers can count on younger viewers being on two screens at once.

So if you think about retail, e-commerce sales, just the number of people buying goods on the internet that is continuing to grow really, really healthily and the sheer volume of goods that people buy online now is really, really pretty large and pretty impressive.