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Our outlook for social ad spending in 2022 has deteriorated significantly since March. This report breaks down what went wrong in the past nine months, and what鈥檚 ahead in the next two years.

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of various elements related to the ad spending market, including macro-level economic conditions; historical trends of the advertising market; historical trends of each medium in relation to other media; reported revenues from major ad publishers; estimates from other research firms; data from benchmark sources; consumer media consumption trends; consumer

Why it鈥檚 worth watching: The ad tech landscape is dominated by Google, Meta, and Amazon, which are on track to control over half of global ad spend by 2028, per Campaign. With AT&T and Verizon exiting ad tech, T-Mobile鈥檚 investment spree signals a gamble on mobile-driven, first-party-data advertising.

Meta鈥檚 decision could hurt overall ad spending and how advertisers approach marketing on its platforms. While it might not have a significant impact on Meta鈥檚 massive ad revenues and enormous reach, it could make Snapchat look appealing in comparison and draw more attention to the platform, whose ad revenues are lagging behind competitors.

Higher expenses and weakened demand could also curb seller ad spending, limiting Etsy鈥檚 revenue opportunities.

RMN leaders that already command the majority of ad spending share will further solidify their leads as long-tail RMNs determine next steps on measurement. Friction will create opportunities for third-party technology platforms with proprietary measurement solutions. RMN proliferation is putting pressure on the status quo.

Unilever鈥檚 investment in influencer marketing will rise from about 30% to 50% of the company鈥檚 total ad spend. Fernandez suggests that an influencer-first strategy will make Unilever more trustworthy to consumers who are skeptical of traditional corporate messaging. 鈥淭here are 19,000 zip codes in India. There are 5,764 municipalities in Brazil. I want one influencer in each of them,鈥� Fernandez said.

It also bodes well for the company鈥檚 marketing and advertising growth through new device and market segments. The Android Show will highlight the expansion from smartphones to wearables, cars, and TVs and as a conduit for Gemini鈥檚 AI features.

Why it matters: Coca-Cola鈥檚 US media spend increased 17% in 2023, reaching $1.8 billion, per Ad Age, demonstrating how crucial this account is for Publicis鈥� and WPP鈥檚 financial outlooks. Our take: AI remains a major battleground for media agencies, but WPP鈥檚 loss raises questions about whether its AI-driven approach is delivering the expected results.

Combatting slower ad growth may be a core focus in upcoming quarters to compete against players like Google and Amazon. Given its tech dominance and strong market position, Apple will likely continue to see revenue increases, though potentially at a slower pace鈥攂ut enhancing its Services sector and ad offerings is key to bolster growth.

Advertisers are being forced to think beyond return on ad spend (ROAS). Because most retail media advertisers began by buying search ads, many evaluate spending by looking at ROAS. But as retail media diversifies beyond lower-funnel activations, brands will have to get comfortable incorporating awareness metrics such as brand fit and reach into their measurement strategies.

The country represented about 11% of Meta鈥檚 ad spending, and top advertiser Temu has already started pulling back spending. MoffettNathanson forecast a $7 billion advertising income loss for Meta this year due to tariffs, per CNBC. That potential hit means Meta needs to cut losses elsewhere. Our take: Reality Labs has been a drain on Meta鈥檚 finances for years.

Talent hunt: As brands focus on retail media network ad spending that provides better omnichannel customer targeting, tracking, and improved performance measurement and campaign attribution, retailers need to fill their skills gaps by hiring talent in ad tech, martech, and growth marketing, according to Dan Goldsmith, managing director at Three Pillars Recruiting.

狈别虫迟诲辞辞谤鈥檚 ad growth in Q4 was a bright spot, but 2025 will be a stress test for its business model as it prioritizes engagement over immediate ad revenues. AI will be at the core of 狈别虫迟诲辞辞谤鈥檚 future monetization. Tolia detailed how the company plans to use AI to structure historical user conversations into actionable, monetizable content, creating an entirely new ad targeting mechanism.

Beyond social media giants like TikTok and Meta, brands can diversify their ad spend by investing in sports podcasts and consider partnerships with popular sports personalities鈥攁 strategy that has already proven successful.

Banning advertising tax deductions for pharma could generate $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion in federal tax revenues, according to Campaign for Sustainable Rx Pricing鈥檚 ad spending analysis of 10 leading pharma companies. Why it matters: A total ban on direct-to-consumer drug advertising would face First Amendment free speech challenges from the pharma, advertising, and media industries.

The end-of-season surges suggest that Gen Zers are most engaged with apparel content in the lead-up to the following season鈥攁n important trend that could help marketers time their ad spend for the highest effectiveness. Online gaming was another consistent category for Gen Z, maintaining steady growth from June (19,043) to December (19,988).

The continuing problem of made-for-advertising (MFA) sites and a number of reports from industry activist group Adalytics highlighting brand safety failures has put a spotlight on how DSPs are responding. 11% of worldwide website ad spend went to MFA sites, per a December 2024 Pixalate study.

US CPG Industry Ad Spending 2024(蘑菇AV subscription required). Methodology: Data is from the Placer.ai report titled "Quarterly Retail Review: Q4 2024." Placer.ai analyzes 1.5+ billion monthly visitors across 20 million devices, 13+ million venues, thousands of segments, and 500+ mobile apps. Placer.ai is a location analytics and foot traffic data company.

In the US, this figure balloons to a staggering $189 billion in wasted media spend. Technology vs. creativity: While AI and data analytics help brands optimize spending and personalize content, they aren't solving the core problem. Marketers have more data than ever but struggle to convert it into breakthrough insights.

TikTok鈥檚 top brands pulled back spending after ban signing: Ad spend growth slowed in the month after the ban was signed, and major retailers like Target reduced spend.

This is in line with 26% of US advertisers being concerned that automotive ad spend could plummet as manufacturers adjust budgets due to tariffs, per IAB.

We expect spending in the vertical to grow 15% YoY to $10.5 billion in 2025, outpacing digital and social ad spending. What does it solve? AMT said its platform cuts the time needed to secure an influencer partnership from nine hours to five minutes while simplifying campaign management.