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But since then, advertisers have invested more heavily in private marketplaces and closed ecosystems like social media platforms and retail media networks (RMNs), which fall under programmatic direct. Direct pathways are all the rage.

Article: Tech, retail, and streaming companies to make stronger play for digital ad dollars in 2023.

In addition to linear TV and video streaming services, podcasts, video games, out-of-home (OOH), and retail media networks (RMNs) all sell inventory upfront now. Upfront buying still offers advantages.

Social won鈥檛 get overtaken by retail media 鈥� yet. Social鈥檚 share of total media ad spending will grow much more slowly. Between 2017 and 2021, social鈥檚 share of overall media ad spending in the US nearly doubled, climbing from 10.5% to 20.0% in just four years. By contrast, its share of US media ad spending will climb less than 2 percentage points through 2027, inching from 20.4% in 2023 to 22.0%.

OOH ad spending鈥檚 share of overall media ad spending is slipping. Moderate growth won鈥檛 be enough for OOH to maintain its relatively small share of the total US ad market, which will drop from 2.4% this year to 2.0% in 2028.

CTV ad spending will grow 21.2% this year鈥攐utpacing ad spending growth of retail media networks (19.7%). Measurement standardization would allow advertisers to optimize their investments more effectively across streaming platforms. As CTV grows, so does programmatic.

US upfront TV ad spending will fall by 3.6% to $18.64 billion for the 2023鈥�2024 TV season, a downward revision of 5.0% from our previous forecast.

Gen Z will make up 20% of the population in the US this year, putting it solidly in line with millennials, Gen X, and baby boomers, per the US Census Bureau. That said, 42% of Gen Zers will still be minors, and as a result their spending power will remain below that of older generations.

Marketplaces will continue to expand their share of US retail ecommerce as new players with roots in China vie for prominence.

Retail marketers name ecommerce, TikTok, generative AI as most important trends of 2024. Longer videos are easier for social media platforms to monetize.

On the retail side, paid retail membership fee revenues will hit $35.12 billion this year, a 6.5% increase from 2022, per our March forecast. Use this chart:. Identify customer attitudes around subscription services. Build out your subscription service to attract consumers. More like this:. Amazon could launch standalone grocery, healthcare subscriptions.

Amazon is considering an ad tier for Prime Video, which could lead to an explosion in CTV ad spend from brands looking to take advantage of Amazon鈥檚 retail media data. Free ad-supported TV platforms like Amazon鈥檚 Freevee are expanding in viewership and content. Listen to the full podcast. This was originally featured in the eMarketer Daily newsletter.

This industry鈥檚 share of digital spending won鈥檛 keep up with those of industries like retail and automotive, but healthcare and pharma advertisers are following consumers across digital media channels and are learning to target more carefully. Key Question: What鈥檚 the current state of healthcare and pharma digital ad spending, and what trends will affect it over the next few years?

Ad tech company The Trade Desk and grocery intermediary Instacart teamed up in October to improve the latter鈥檚 retail media offerings through improved metrics. Why it works: Retail media data is in demand. Instacart will generate $1.18 billion in US retail media ad revenues next year, making it the fourth-largest retail media network we track in terms of revenues, according to our forecast.

RFK Jr.鈥檚 pharmaceutical ad ban could affect $22 billion in ad spending: A business-friendly Trump administration could hamper RFK鈥檚 plans to cut D2C advertising.

Most internet users are still logged on, but marketers may have more success investing in retail media or connected TV advertising. This was originally featured in the eMarketer Daily newsletter. For more marketing insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.

Retailers were the first to reach scale with CMNs, making retail the most mature vertical within the space. RMNs have achieved enormous growth and revenues: Amazon alone will capture 77.0% of US retail media ad revenues, per our forecast. Now other verticals are looking to copy retail鈥檚 playbook. FIs are getting on the bandwagon by launching FMNs.

Of UK internet users, 60% would use the metaverse to engage with and buy from retail brands, per an August 2022 survey by Advanis for Sitecore. Meanwhile, 40% would use it specifically for beauty. That鈥檚 prompting beauty brands to dip their toes in the digital space, experimenting with everything from virtual cosmetics to NFTs.

Walled garden spend share is being dragged down as the duopoly of Meta and Google becomes less dominant, and retail media networks have not yet made up for this dip. We don鈥檛 include search ads in our definition of programmatic digital display ads. If we did, walled gardens would likely continue winning share of programmatic spend, as noted in our 鈥淧rogrammatic Ad Spending Forecast Q3 2023鈥� report.

CTV ad spending is smaller compared with other major ad formats like search, social, TV, and retail media, and we expect that to continue until at least 2027, according to our forecast. Almost 90% of CTV is transacted programmatically (i.e., sold with any amount of automation). 蘑菇AV 40% of programmatic ad spend is coming from YouTube, according to Verna. Where CTV ad dollars come from.

And existing retail media networks have pushed non-endemic advertising to keep growing. 鈥淸搁别迟补颈濒 media networks are] increasingly looking at opening up ad inventory beyond the brands that they carry in order to continue fueling the growth of what they've recognized is a very profitable revenue stream,鈥� said our analyst Sarah Marzano. 4. CTV advertising kept growing, boosted by Amazon Prime Video.

Horizon Media is hunting for acquisitions: The US agency is targeting companies in the influencer marketing and retail media sectors.

Holiday retail sales will grow much faster than full-year retail. Total retail sales during the 2024 holiday season (which we define as November and December) will reach $1.353 trillion, up 4.8% YoY, compared with 2.8% growth for full-year retail. This marks an improvement over the 2023 holidays, when sales increased 3.9% YoY. The holidays are a critical period for retail and ecommerce.

Travel, retail, healthcare and pharma, and auto will all solidly outpace the national growth rate, and entertainment will just barely beat the average. Additionally, several industries that lost spending momentum in 2022 are in line for meaningful rebounds.