蘑菇AV

Under the moderate tariff scenario, total ad spending would reach approximately $407 billion, with only the heavy scenario triggering an actual year-over-year decline in total ad spending. "Even in a heavy tariff scenario, top-line digital ad spending, looking at it from a year-over-year growth standpoint, would still grow 4.5% year-over-year," said our analyst Oscar Orozco. Digital channel divide.

Why it matters: Retail media and commerce media, which focus on optimizing shopping experiences both online and offline, has become a critical area for ad spending.

The news: Soumya Donkada, Unilever鈥檚 head of digital, media, and ecommerce for beauty brands, restated the company鈥檚 intention to find a post-third-party-cookie measurement solution in an interview with Insider and reiterated the consumer giant鈥檚 call for retail media networks to adopt a set of measurement standards to aid advertisers.

As D2C ad dollars shift away from Facebook, Google has been the primary beneficiary. Facebook鈥檚 share of ad spending plummeted from 48.4% in Q1 2020 to 27.6% in Q4 2022, per Rockerbox data. But Google climbed from 37.2% to 42.6% over the same time frame. D2C brands facing the declining effectiveness of search and social ads must use new strategies outside of the traditional D2C growth playbook.

Three of Latin America鈥檚 most prominent retail and ecommerce players鈥擬ercado Libre, Falabella, and Walmart Mexico鈥攚ere among the leaders of the fastest-growing companies ranked by digital advertising revenues. Tesco launched Tesco Media and Insight in November 2021, powered by its data science and loyalty division, dunnhumby.

PRO+ subscribers have access to Industry KPIs, our collection of more than 400 benchmarks in marketing, retail, and ecommerce across a range of industries and countries. Higher CPMs come after downturns in previous years. Meta, Snapchat, and YouTube all saw CPMs decline by double-digit rates YoY in Q1 2023, according to our forecast.

A lot happens in a week, so every Friday we're going to analyze all the new data and provide you with some of the key takeaways. Welcome to the Friday 5. This week, the economic blackout day made an impact, ecommerce buoys beauty, and luxury spending continues.

Amazon seems poised to beat its lowered expectations: While the retail giant predicted its slowest-ever holiday season growth, analysts expect the retail giant鈥檚 Q4 sales still rose 6% YoY.

Advertising Week New York kicks off next week. Last year, speakers discussed everything from Web3 to connected TV (CTV) to social media. This year, we鈥檒l be watching for updates related to retail media, AI, and social media鈥檚 era of transformation.

I mean, they represent over 10% of e-commerce sales, would be second only to Amazon, and they just have Shopify audiences as their product and they're not really making a lot of noise about it either. And it's basically using that transaction data to plug into Facebook and Google to reach audiences.

Off-site ad spend is forecast to grow at a faster rate than on-site through 2028, and it will represent more than 20% of total retail media ad spend by 2025. Consequently, many retailers are finding themselves with an increased supply of ad inventory free from the constraints of their finite, on-site digital real estate.

In some cases, like at gas station pumps and electric vehicle charging stations, they may also be viewed as retail media spend, which comes with its own debate over which budget ad spend should come from. Ads served during live TV events by companies like BarBoards and Taiv take away from linear and CTV ad impressions by essentially switching to DOOH ads during commercial breaks.

Despite 23.2% growth in US omnichannel retail media ad spend YoY, ecommerce still accounts for just 15.6% of all retail sales, according to our forecast. That figure dips to 7.1% when it comes to food and beverage. 鈥淎 lot of CPG [consumer packaged goods] companies, specifically, [we] don鈥檛 have transactional data at our fingertips. We don鈥檛 have a lot of D2C specifically with our brands,鈥� said Han.

Summer is on the way, and the advertising landscape has already changed significantly since the start of the year. We checked in on data surrounding the biggest trends, including AI search (which is happening whether consumers want it or not), a TikTok ban (no one knows but be prepared), retail media (it鈥檚 exploding), and more.

Consumers shop differently across categories. Most US adults want quick in-store and online grocery shopping experiences, according to November 2023 data from Kearney. However, when it comes to shopping for clothes and shoes, they prefer to browse a bit, particularly online.

Retail media and connected TV (CTV) are like peanut butter and chocolate, Danielle DeLauro, executive vice president at the Video Advertising Bureau, said at Advertising Week New York last week. 鈥淭ogether, there鈥檚 nothing better.鈥�

Ecommerce makes up an increasing share of the retail pie: In 2024, nearly 3 in 4 (76.3%) US resale dollars will come from ecommerce. It鈥檚 increasingly important for retailers to own their own resale market, which brands are doing by teaming up with resale companies like thredUP, Poshmark, and eBay.

Our newsletter team has already made a number of advertising and retail predictions, but now it鈥檚 time to combine the two. Retail media is still on the rise in the US (growing by a projected 28.6% this year), but competition is getting fierce. From commerce opportunities to consolidation, here鈥檚 what we expect to see from retail media in 2024.

Walmart in April launched a digital presence redesign that aims to push shoppers to discover (and buy) items that they may not have been seeking. Our US Walmart Retail Ecommerce Sales Forecast expects the retailer鈥檚 online sales will grow 10.9% this year.

It also debuted its newest ad product Advantage+ Shopping Campaigns (ASC) precariously close to the end of the year. Early returns show ASC delivering significant efficiency.

In 2027, 1 in 5 CTV ad dollars will be retail media spend. CTV needs retail media鈥檚 data. The third-party cookie is going away this year, which means CTV needs retailer data to target ads efficiently and effectively.

As ecommerce growth returns to pre-pandemic levels, it will continue to drive total retail sales over the next few years. Retailers looking to drive sales need to focus on a seamless omnichannel experience and use deals to convince consumers to spend. Meanwhile, retail media鈥檚 growth shows no signs of slowing, but advertisers and retailers must work together to ensure future success.

Following performance measurement was the most important factor in allocating retail media spend, according to US consumer packaged goods (CPG) manufacturers, per December 2023 data from Skai and Path to Purchase Institute.

Ad dollars could branch out to other categories. While social media ad spend slows, retail media ad spend is climbing. Retail media could indirectly benefit from a TikTok ban, according to Insider Intelligence principal analyst Jasmine Enberg. Whether TikTok gets banned or not, advertisers should look not only at where users are spending their time, but at where ad spend goes the furthest.

Getting its costs in check: Amazon has been on an ongoing push under CEO Andy Jassy to focus squarely on its core businesses鈥攍ike ecommerce, grocery, advertising, and AWS鈥攁nd aggressively cut costs wherever possible.