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On today's podcast episode, we discuss what the hell happened鈥攁nd is happening鈥攖o online ads, whether the video streaming boom is officially over, the next big wearable category, what happens when the First Amendment collides with social media, what the world would look like if there were only 100 people, and more. Tune in to the discussion with our forecasting writer Ethan Cramer-Flood and analysts Ross Benes and Blake Droesch.

On today's podcast episode, we discuss how much ad spending will grow this year, whether there are more reasons to be optimistic or pessimistic about consumer spending, and what today's most interesting ad spending trends are by media and company. "In Other News," we talk about a deal to bring video ads to Spotify鈥檚 app on Roku and how Amazon's second year of streaming Thursday Night Football is going. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Paul Verna.

Disney, Fox, and WBD unveil Venu Sports: New streaming service still has hurdles to overcome before fall 2024 debut.

Netflix will generate more than $14 billion in US OTT subscription revenues this year, more than any other company. Disney will come closest to Netflix, but that鈥檚 after Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ revenues are combined. Netflix will account for more than one-fifth of total OTT subscription revenues this year; no other service comes close.

Over half (51%) of US children recall seeing commercials on YouTube recently, the top platform for recognition across multiple digital channels, according to an October 2023 survey from Precise TV.

DoorDash is the latest delivery platform to turn to streaming to boost membership sign-ups: The company will offer DashPass subscribers free access to Max鈥檚 ad-supported tier in a bid to boost sign-ups and grow sales.

What it means: After decades of benefiting from linear TV's direct line into US households, marketers have been slower to explore CTV channels, even as the streaming service space nears saturation. As CTV services increasingly show more live events and sports coverage, they chip away at some of the last remaining benefits of linear TV.

On-demand/streaming service adoption in Indonesia was 94.8%, slightly below the regional average of 96%. Video streaming adoption was also strong at 94.3%, ranking it No. 4 in the region. Indonesia was No. 2 in the region for social media usage at 99.4%. This is higher than the regional average of 98%.

Meanwhile, commerce media advertisers are doubling down on streaming as they lean into the interconnection between retail and CTV, according to Shapo. Partnerships between these channels is welcome news for retailers. 鈥淭here seems to be pushback against the walled gardens,鈥� Adamski observed. The performance mandate. With fewer dollars and more demands, advertisers are keen on proving ROAS.

CTV viewers may start seeing higher subscription costs if tariffs increase the price of streaming devices. Advertisers could increase ad frequency to compensate for lower ad rates鈥攚hich might push viewers away from paid services, especially as many cut down on costs.

Comcast is giving advertisers free AI-powered tools for streaming ads this summer. Beyond Big Tech, brands like Gucci, LVMH, and L鈥橭r茅al are already using AI in-house, reducing reliance on agencies. In context, 43% of US brand and agency marketers are using AI for campaign optimizations, and 41% use it for audience targeting, per InMarket.

Platforms like TikTok, YouTube, and connected TV (CTV) are all competing for marketing spend. Without clear KPIs, marketers lack an understanding of鈥攁nd the ability to communicate with leadership about鈥攈ow campaigns are performing and where they should invest digital video marketing money.

When retail shifts to on-screen commerce, streaming services must carefully consider how they might interrupt an audience鈥檚 experience, said Hall. 鈥淔or a show with such a devoted following, it鈥檚 all encompassing and you don鈥檛 want to be taken out of that with a brand,鈥� said Hall. 鈥淒oing products inspired by that show makes a lot more sense.鈥�.

Consumers are feeling the squeeze of the rising cost of subscriptions. Nearly seven in 10 (67%) US consumers saw at least one of their subscription services increase their cost, per March 2024 survey by CNET. Meanwhile, more than half (52%) of US adults have canceled a streaming service subscription because of increased pricing, per October 2023 data by TransUnion and Dynata.

For the most part, that鈥檚 on social media and music streaming apps, but other categories are ripe for targeting, depending on the preferred audience. Marketers may have success reaching Gen Z on gaming and entertainment apps as well. Those are downloaded by 54% and 53%, respectively, of Gen Zers.

While YouTube鈥檚 ad revenue is smaller than what Meta will generate from Reels on Facebook and Instagram, it鈥檚 neck and neck with TikTok, and far outpaces streaming platforms.

That performance includes early gains from its Vizio acquisition, as the company begins linking retail data to streaming inventory in a closed-loop environment. Executives also emphasized the role of retail media in offsetting margin pressure from tariffs and inflation.

There was an article the other day showing that you need at least three streaming services to watch all the NFL games. Different ones have different games but you'll need at least a combination of three of the seven that cover the NFL to watch all of the games. So that is relatively prohibitive. It's really interesting by age and by sport as well.